Question for Elliott Wave Analysts

If you were to assume that a bear market started at the beginning of May (which is what I've been thinking), would the following make sense? Wave 1: 1370 to the June lows Wave 2: June lows to the 1350s Wave 3: 1350s to 1216 today Wave 4: A bounce coming now back to the 1280s Wave 5: Later in the month something to take us below 1216? It seems like Wave 3 would have 5 clear waves that just completed this morning....from 1350ish to the 1280s (1), followed by the bounce to 1307 following the debt deal (2), followed by a move to 1334 yesterday (3), followed by the bounce to over 1360 (4), followed by today's move to 1316 (5). Are we ready for a wave 4 in other words over the coming days/week before getting the 5th and final wave later in the month below 1216? That would complete 1 big primary wave from 1370 right? And then set us up a big relief rally wave 2 from wherever wave 5 ends (say somewhere in the high 1100s back to around 1300), followed by a crashing primary wave 3 late in the year... Does that make sense?

Or maybe you'd have to say we're still in a wave 3 down because wave 1 was the 1350 to 1300 move, then 2 was the bounce back to 1340, and we just did a long 3 of 3, and are now doing a 4 or 3, before a break of 1216 on a 5 of 3? Then a bigger bounce to the 1270s-80s i guess but not before we break 1216 one more time soon? Which count makes more sense?

If you were to assume that a bear market started at the beginning of May (which is what I've been thinking), would the following make sense?

Wave 1: 1370 to the June lows
Wave 2: June lows to the 1350s
Wave 3: 1350s to 1216 today
Wave 4: A bounce coming now back to the 1280s
Wave 5: Later in the month something to take us below 1216?


It seems like Wave 3 would have 5 clear waves that just completed this morning....from 1350ish to the 1280s (1), followed by the bounce to 1307 following the debt deal (2), followed by a move to 1334 yesterday (3), followed by the bounce to over 1360 (4), followed by today's move to 1316 (5).

Are we ready for a wave 4 in other words over the coming days/week before getting the 5th and final wave later in the month below 1216? That would complete 1 big primary wave from 1370 right? And then set us up a big relief rally wave 2 from wherever wave 5 ends (say somewhere in the high 1100s back to around 1300), followed by a crashing primary wave 3 late in the year...

Does that make sense?

I think we may see 1190 before any meaningful bounce. Not even guaranteed there, though

If you were to assume that a bear market started at the beginning of May (which is what I've been thinking), would the following make sense?

Wave 1: 1370 to the June lows
Wave 2: June lows to the 1350s
Wave 3: 1350s to 1216 today
Wave 4: A bounce coming now back to the 1280s
Wave 5: Later in the month something to take us below 1216?


It seems like Wave 3 would have 5 clear waves that just completed this morning....from 1350ish to the 1280s (1), followed by the bounce to 1307 following the debt deal (2), followed by a move to 1334 yesterday (3), followed by the bounce to over 1360 (4), followed by today's move to 1316 (5).

Are we ready for a wave 4 in other words over the coming days/week before getting the 5th and final wave later in the month below 1216? That would complete 1 big primary wave from 1370 right? And then set us up a big relief rally wave 2 from wherever wave 5 ends (say somewhere in the high 1100s back to around 1300), followed by a crashing primary wave 3 late in the year...

Does that make sense?

I think we may see 1190 before any meaningful bounce. Not even guaranteed there, though

Hmm, I would think even if we're still in a wave 3 down (having just finished a vicious 3 of 3), we should still should be in a 4 of 3 going up now. and if you count it that way then 2 of 3 went all the way from below 1300 to 1345 in July. Or if you assume wave 3 is over then it's just an even bigger bounce in a bigger wave 4 i would think.

either way, there should definitely be lower lows on the way over the coming weeks.

I am still holding my calls from SPX cash 1246 however for the time being....

Well, I love to surf-so: First, your wave four bounce will only go about as high as your 4 of 3-so I'd be looking to the 1260's. Overall, I'd be looking at this as an "A" wave (5 waves of "A"). I only mention that because when we finish the 5 down, the retracement will be different-in both size and structure-than it would be if we were doing a 2 up. I had the 3 of 3 in yesterday, and have been counting this pretty well-your count looks fine. I did cover the bottom earlier thinking the 5 of 3 was in, but did not buy the bounce-as I am not 100% sure it is in. The profit was right, and I'd rather short the bounce than buy the "bottom" at this point. If you ever have a wave question-and feel I'm capable enough-feel free to message me-always glad to share a count. Combining both Elliott and the internals is "the [bleeeep]". Yesterday, you knew the wave 3 was not over, as breadth had not turned. When breadth does turn, you still may not get an appreciable bump for a day or 2-it leads.

Edited by thespookyone, 04 August 2011 - 11:57 AM.

Great, thanks for your response.

Well, I love to surf-so:

First, your wave four bounce will only go about as high as your 4 of 3-so I'd be looking to the 1260's. Overall, I'd be looking at this as an "A" wave (5 waves of "A"). I only mention that because when we finish the 5 down, the retracement will be different-in both size and structure-than it would be if we were doing a 2 up. I had the 3 of 3 in yesterday, and have been counting this pretty well-your count looks fine. I did cover the bottom earlier thinking the 5 of 3 was in, but did not buy the bounce-as I am not 100% sure it is in. The profit was right, and I'd rather short the bounce than buy the "bottom" at this point. If you ever have a wave question-and feel I'm capable enough-feel free to message me-always glad to share a count.

Combining both Elliott and the internals is "the [bleeeep]". Yesterday, you knew the wave 3 was not over, as breadth had not turned. When breadth does turn, you still may not get an appreciable bump for a day or 2-it leads.

What breadth measures do you see turning? I do not have any breadth turning so far.

Macro, there are various possibilities.
One is that 1370 was not the EW top, but W3 up. So we later topped for W5 at 1356 (?) on a failed/truncated 5th.

But locally, yes, some sort of wave 3 is ongoing and may or may not be complete.
Then your 4 and 5 down.

And its possible that this wave 3 (and 4,5 to come) are all within a larger wave 3.
Ie, nested 1,2's and a succession of 4,5s before we bottom.

Eg, as one possibility

http://3.bp.blogspot...e_Aug4_12PM.png

Edited by pedro, 04 August 2011 - 12:50 PM.

Great, thanks for your response.

I am flipping long here for intraday action. ES 1211

Well, I love to surf-so:

First, your wave four bounce will only go about as high as your 4 of 3-so I'd be looking to the 1260's. Overall, I'd be looking at this as an "A" wave (5 waves of "A"). I only mention that because when we finish the 5 down, the retracement will be different-in both size and structure-than it would be if we were doing a 2 up. I had the 3 of 3 in yesterday, and have been counting this pretty well-your count looks fine. I did cover the bottom earlier thinking the 5 of 3 was in, but did not buy the bounce-as I am not 100% sure it is in. The profit was right, and I'd rather short the bounce than buy the "bottom" at this point. If you ever have a wave question-and feel I'm capable enough-feel free to message me-always glad to share a count.

Combining both Elliott and the internals is "the [bleeeep]". Yesterday, you knew the wave 3 was not over, as breadth had not turned. When breadth does turn, you still may not get an appreciable bump for a day or 2-it leads.

What breadth measures do you see turning? I do not have any breadth turning so far.

They didn't. My profits were to large, and I'm trading all weekly puts-that expire tomorrow. Premium will get pulled, and the risk reward went down a ton. If I was trading monthlys-I would not have covered. I'm trading all weeklys, because the premium on the monthlys is just out of controll. imho. You just have to be VERY sure of where you are, and the weeklys are a much better vehicle, imho. I kept 2 NFLX puts I'm way up on-to try and enjoy 1 last ride down here.

Edited by thespookyone, 04 August 2011 - 02:02 PM.