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VIX moves up & IMHO, is headed higher in th VST...


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#1 Bob-C

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Posted 04 August 2011 - 11:45 AM

Hi everyone, here is the VIX daily TL chart:

http://www.chart.nu/...0&filter=34.png

Here is the VIX weekly TL chart:

http://www.chart.nu/...7&filter=21.png

Note the weekly VIX has broken above its 1.5-year-weekly DT.

Here is the VIX monthly TL chart:

http://www.chart.nu/...0&filter=13.png

Here are the VIX Gallery Charts including the VIX P&F chart:

The VIX P&F Chart has a Bullish Price Objective of 49.5!

Cheers, :)

Bob-C
Disclaimer: None of my posts are meant to be taken as investment advice or trading advice. Do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any trades or investments.

#2 Macro Speculator

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Posted 04 August 2011 - 11:49 AM

Amazing...everything seems to be unraveling and setting up a resumption of the megabear market. Bob-C, do you have any opinion on a timeframe for the VIX going back toward 50? 50 would have to mean sovereign bond chaos and/or bank failures I think....that is 2008 type VIX levels...heavy but orderly selloffs in a bear market would be more like a 30ish VIX....so that is scary if your target gets hit.

#3 DrSP

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Posted 04 August 2011 - 12:04 PM

Bob, VIX may reach 49 or even 490 but don't believe those P&F charts. Those charts had a 89$ target for QQQ till 5 days ago, you can attest to that. :lol:
You could be a billionaire or an industrial worker or a teacher or a moderator of a forum - Hold a good conscience because that is what matters.

#4 Bob-C

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Posted 04 August 2011 - 12:09 PM

Amazing...everything seems to be unraveling and setting up a resumption of the megabear market. Bob-C, do you have any opinion on a timeframe for the VIX going back toward 50?

50 would have to mean sovereign bond chaos and/or bank failures I think....that is 2008 type VIX levels...heavy but orderly selloffs in a bear market would be more like a 30ish VIX....so that is scary if your target gets hit.


Hi Macro Speculator, good to hear from you. :) I agree with your well-stated comments and insights. :) See my thread below on COMPQ, NDX, SDS, QQQ, and SPX for an idea where these ETFs and indices are most likely headed. At the present time I don't have a specific target date for the VIX reaching 50 but I think that's a good possibility over the IT and I think it's a very good possibility over the LT.

Have a great and very successful trading day and week. :)

Bob-C
Disclaimer: None of my posts are meant to be taken as investment advice or trading advice. Do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any trades or investments.

#5 Bob-C

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Posted 04 August 2011 - 12:11 PM

Bob, VIX may reach 49 or even 490 but don't believe those P&F charts. Those charts had a 89$ target for QQQ till 5 days ago, you can attest to that. :lol:


Thanks DrSP, good to hear from you. :) See my thread below on COMPQ, NDX, SDS, QQQ, and SPX below.

Have a happy and vey successful trading day and week. :)

Bob
Disclaimer: None of my posts are meant to be taken as investment advice or trading advice. Do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any trades or investments.

#6 viccarter

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Posted 04 August 2011 - 12:21 PM

Bob, VIX may reach 49 or even 490 but don't believe those P&F charts. Those charts had a 89$ target for QQQ till 5 days ago, you can attest to that. :lol:


Thanks DrSP, good to hear from you. :) See my thread below on COMPQ, NDX, SDS, QQQ, and SPX below.

Have a happy and vey successful trading day and week. :)

Bob



I don't believe you can chart VIX in a traditional way. You can measure BB or sigma channel, you can see whether the sigma is expanding or contracting, you can see whether the VIX is "riding" the upper or lower BB or outside of them, but no way can you chart it with traditional price targets.

#7 Bob-C

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Posted 04 August 2011 - 12:34 PM

Hi everyone, here is the VIX 2-year-weekly linear-regression chart.

Here is the VIX 4-year-monthly linear-regression chart.

Cheers, :)

Bob-C
Disclaimer: None of my posts are meant to be taken as investment advice or trading advice. Do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any trades or investments.

#8 Jhoe

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Posted 04 August 2011 - 12:35 PM

completely agree Bob. I referenced the same chart in a post yesterday, pointing out the VIX's series of higher highs and higher lows ever since it sold off in mid March. That said, I'm no advocate of trying to trade cash VIX here, unless its with deep out of the money front month calls--close to the area you mentioned--45, 50, etc. In any case, if nothing else it should be a glaring red flag to those looking for any kind of significant, sustainable rally from these levels on the spx.

#9 Bob-C

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Posted 04 August 2011 - 01:06 PM

completely agree Bob. I referenced the same chart in a post yesterday, pointing out the VIX's series of higher highs and higher lows ever since it sold off in mid March. That said, I'm no advocate of trying to trade cash VIX here, unless its with deep out of the money front month calls--close to the area you mentioned--45, 50, etc. In any case, if nothing else it should be a glaring red flag to those looking for any kind of significant, sustainable rally from these levels on the spx.


Hi Jhoe, good to hear from you. :) Thanks very much for your comments and for your well-stated and on-target analysis and insights. :) GLTU.

Think about all the worldwide margin calls that are going out today and possibly on Monday and the resultant cascading effect.

Have a great and successful trading day and week. :)

Bob
Disclaimer: None of my posts are meant to be taken as investment advice or trading advice. Do your own due diligence and consult your financial advisor before making any trades or investments.