Congratulations to the bears and day traders. What a great day to be fully short as well as day trading! It's a different story, however, for those holding un-hedged long positions in non-daytrading accounts. There's no need to panic.
I believe the intervention by the BOJ via USD/JPY pair last night had planted the seed for the surge in Dollar and the volatility today. Although the initial reaction was bullish for equities, the unintended consequence of the Dollar short squeeze had gone way overboard. The ECB decision and Trichet press conference might've only facilitated and accelerated the inevitable.
Yes, the tail's wagging the dog. In my view, therefore, this is but a one-day event. A mean reversion should take place just as swiftly. Instead of seeing fear, I'm seeing this as another opportunity to accumulate.
Blood in the Street
Started by
TechMan
, Aug 04 2011 03:42 PM
8 replies to this topic
#2
qqqqtrdr
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Posted 04 August 2011 - 04:57 PM
There are multiple things going on with the markets today....... Commodities got socked with equities and treasuries escalated.....
In the last week
OIL has gone from 100 to 92
Twenty year treasury has gone from 95 to 102
The market should stabilize.... I think equities will continue to drop if Commodities keep dropping to a point. As well as treasury prices keep rising....
Earnings still are not bad overall for equities, I just think we have overshot in treasuries a bit.... OIL who knows... I think we can go lower....
Barry
#3
TechMan
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Posted 04 August 2011 - 05:23 PM
Barry - Yes on all accounts as they're all connected to the same source, The Dollar.
#4
qqqqtrdr
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Posted 04 August 2011 - 05:42 PM
Barry - Yes on all accounts as they're all connected to the same source, The Dollar.
The dollar shifted about 1.2% today.... A lot of other sources about 5%.... So it is 1.2% the dollar and 3.8% something else....
Barry
#5
TechMan
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Posted 04 August 2011 - 06:04 PM
Barry - Yes on all accounts as they're all connected to the same source, The Dollar.
The dollar shifted about 1.2% today.... A lot of other sources about 5%.... So it is 1.2% the dollar and 3.8% something else....
Barry
I wish it's that simple. Unfortunately, it doesn't work like that. Unless you have a complex model that quantifies how these various markets interact with and feed off each other, it's hard to put a number on the Dollar effect.
In any case, depending on which Dollar Index you're looking at, it had gone up 2%-2.5% since last night. I think that's likely the largest 1-day gain ever.
Edited by TechMan, 04 August 2011 - 06:08 PM.
#6
TechMan
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Posted 04 August 2011 - 06:37 PM
BTW, today's NQ Trin at 7.13 was the highest since December 1, 2008. The Nasdaq had gone on to gain 18% in about 5 weeks, from Dec. 1, 2008 to January 6, 2009.
Edited by TechMan, 04 August 2011 - 06:38 PM.
#7
pdx5
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I want return OF my money more than return ON my money
Posted 05 August 2011 - 01:12 AM
I am tempted to jump back in (long side) but afraid to catch falling knives.
Besides Sept-Oct are notorious for the C word.
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule
#8
DrSP
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Posted 05 August 2011 - 06:02 AM
BTW, today's NQ Trin at 7.13 was the highest since December 1, 2008. The Nasdaq had gone on to gain 18% in about 5 weeks, from Dec. 1, 2008 to January 6, 2009.
Techman, December is a different season which we cannot compare to now.
You could be a billionaire or an industrial worker or a teacher or a moderator of a forum - Hold a good conscience because that is what matters.
#9
TechMan
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Posted 05 August 2011 - 07:08 AM
BTW, today's NQ Trin at 7.13 was the highest since December 1, 2008. The Nasdaq had gone on to gain 18% in about 5 weeks, from Dec. 1, 2008 to January 6, 2009.
Techman, December is a different season which we cannot compare to now.
It's a point of reference.
