Binary Poll

Thanks for your participation. The debt problems are known to cause very rapid declines as they wipe out the equity first.

this comment is not directly meant to influence poll results, but I make it for
use by other traders to evaluate future trends in price action and moving averages which may be generated
in 2011 to 2014

other than your topic label about the "oversold" condition, please consider in the future how
price action for the SPX, OEX, NDX, COMPQ, RUT, NYA, VLE, WLSH relate to
their still rising 600-day simple moving average

place the 600-day sma on these index charts since 1992 and you will see the
relationship to your Poll question, and to the broader question about where price may find
a confirmed major trend turn ID discovery (one idea of many)

thanks for the Poll question, k!

question to chartists to consider: what represents a truly meaningful "oversold price condition" other than price oscillators and breadth extremes..when
the 200-day sma and the 600-day sma are still rising, and price resides between both of these moving averages?

- hiker

Edited by hiker, 06 August 2011 - 01:44 AM.

Thanks for your participation.

The debt problems are known to cause very rapid declines as they wipe out the equity first.

All BS with a capital BS. Every problem now was known of or should have been known of a year ago. Whether we bounce depends on whether enough have been tossed out of the market yet so that they can get back in at lower prices.

We were at historic highs monthly basis all Feb, March, April, we kept touching higher. So we had to at minimum go sideways to down for a few months. Now we have, historic monthly highs don't typically go off a cliff. There was some fear the last couple days, so I think closer to bottom than not.

One thing: the average retail investor will never recover and never forgive the system if it can just crash out like this and keep going down (again) after they were hurt so bad before.

I think the second parabolic part of the move down only came because people were not scared or positioned short, it was brutal and gruesome. And you know what, I've seen the same thing happen all the time on a five minute chart and you think nothing about it. We haven't had a move like this since 2008, normally over the last 2 years, we would have bounced 50-60 SPX handles ago.

There was no rational reason to be short (swing) from EOD July 28 or 29, and yet the move wasn't even 1/2 over. Some guys had some good calls on here in terms of little tidbits. But there are crash calls all the time, and although many of us provide great information and charts, so much is noise. This was unpredictible, even great traders like Hamzai who had done a timing seminar saying he was still short and that his weekly was still short (his timing call got caught short the huge ralley from 1st of July and he covered way early prior to this weeks move.

Only one person out there can consistantly call crash and can mentally hold swing short into crash == AMD. And what is so funny, is that he was having his name trashed here on the cusp of another amazing, performance call. The guy is like Tiger Woods or Jordan when in comes to index swing traders on the net, anyone who cannot see that is just a Hater, IMO. What we do here is offer bits and pieces, too much like some of those guys on Twitter. 2 weeks ago it was "cup and handle" and "basing" and now they claim to catch the move down. Just like on here: the "TONE" is key after a run up its all about the cum ADV/DEC at all time highs and ZBT's. Some said caution, some said cash, but no conviction.

I know 2 traders who have consistently bought bottoms and sold tops during the past 4-5 months while maintaining that we would see a big down move coming -- AMD and that guy @TJTAKES from Twitter. 90% of the people out there are running their mouth bullish when its up and bearish when its down -- noise. Do you know the best day to do a ZBT post? Today. Why? We have seen the statistics and data and that is a fact. Post those past facts today when things are so negative, that would be a help.

I am a guy with poor to average natural instincts but with a decent system that I have made some nice improvements to over the past few months. Guess what? I took my trade on the system back last week and got blown out with a hard stop. My entry met all my criteria, so I didn't worry about it. Once the daily buys started signaling for me Thursday morning, I began to nibble only to see position blow another 30 handles down. I still have it, and I plan to buy more next week for a 1-5 day hold. I had for months, said this market would go mostly sideways to down since RUT 800 level, but all I freaking heard for months was REDBULL. Now, had I been short from the top, I would have covered July 28 or so and would not have reshorted, so I don't even worry about how far we went past that. But it is so disinginuous to see so many slapping backs like they caught all of this move, when they were talking REDBULL not 2 weeks ago.

I say leave the crashes alone and trade your system. There are so many buy triggers and/or reasons not to be short now. Sure we are so bad OS we could crash, but betting on crashes doesn't pay well statistically. The only thing that worries me is that the stud duck that called all this (again) apparently hasn't covered yet. That is disturbing.

People make so many wrong statements out there. They say "breadth today was terrible" No it wasn't.



I enjoy socializing with other traders, but seriously considering moving on and just trading my own charts and stops... too much noise out there.

"Only one person out there can consistantly call crash and can mentally hold swing short into crash == AMD. And what is so funny, is that he was having his name trashed here on the cusp of another amazing, performance call. The guy is like Tiger Woods or Jordan when in comes to index swing traders on the net, anyone who cannot see that is just a Hater, IMO. What we do here is offer bits and pieces, too much like some of those guys on Twitter. 2 weeks ago it was "cup and handle" and "basing" and now they claim to catch the move down. Just like on here: the "TONE" is key after a run up its all about the cum ADV/DEC at all time highs and ZBT's. Some said caution, some said cash, but no conviction." I'm not a hater-just a realist. If you think great trading involves taking 70 point SPX drawdowns-that's your business-I do NOT. And if you watch over the years-that's happened more than once. To me, there is nothing "mentally strong" about not using stops, and letting a position run far past you than it needs to. I know many better swing traders, some post right here. how much money can a truly good trader make trading both ways while another trader sits taking a huge drawdown?-an absolute ton. And, when you take a huge drawdown-how many times can you afford to be totally wrong?-once-NO THANKS. The market is a fluid animal, and requires an ever changing response, I don't view "conviction" as static. Also, calling tops and bottoms for a living, has never proven realistic. The best traders don't need to-or try to. This isn't a game of hitting home runs-where you strike out a lot-and believe me, over the years I've seen AMD wiff plenty. It's a game better played with base hits, doubles, ect. Less risk, more contact. If you get annoyed that someone can change their market stance in two weeks time-I'm sorry but flexibility is key in this ever changing market. I look at my stuff every day, and am always ready to flip-with no apology-if conditions warrant Sorry, just had to comment. Make every trade with AMD the next two years using his style-and entrys-which, by the way, are unlikely to be posted anywhee near realtime, come back and tell me how it works out.....

My experience with the weekly index putcall premium ratio at 2.2 is at strong buy levels...though much safer to bet on where price is not likely to go (e.g. sell vertical put spreads/volatility). Caveat: extremes can get even more extreme...who knows, maybe the market mind is just coming to realize that the secular debt bubble and current fallout crisis is far from over (i.e. we have a long ways to go....and the QE2 markup was just smoke-n-mirrors; we are not far from levels where the meltup markup began fueled, ironically, by more gov't debt)

It is too late to bet for a crash, the most you can do is to let your profits ride and take them out on the way down, but if you missed the first 50 points, it is very very challenging to commit and keep the position. I traded short quite a few times, but I am not holding overnight or weekends simply because you can get easily a 30-40 point reversal with one good news. Friday's intraday reversal was actually the best I could hope for... One of those days I will buy and it will drop 50 and I won't touch it, I was thinking last Thursday was such a day, it recovered from 1280s and I did say it would. For this week, I thought the debt agreement would hold up the market for 1-2 days at least and test 1320 zone before breaking down, I guess they knew about S&P's decision and sold it down into that buying... I think it was predictable that it was going to turn, but it wasn't predictable that the reversal would come minutes after the debt deal, I expected some sort of a relief rally for a day or two to a lower high...

but I am not holding overnight or weekends simply because you can get easily a 30-40 point reversal with one good news.

At this point the only good news could be the second coming.