I'm looking for 1425 or so on the SPX cash. maybe today.
pre-open, futures led drop- check
bernanke speaking later- check
failure to make a sentiment bottom to match the price low set yesterday and thus a need to refill the bus-check
pre-flight checklist
Started by
phineas_gage
, Jan 10 2008 09:54 AM
8 replies to this topic
#2
dcengr
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Posted 10 January 2008 - 10:03 AM
You and I are on the same page 
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?
#3
OEXCHAOS
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Mark S. Young
Posted 10 January 2008 - 10:08 AM
I'm looking for 1425 or so on the SPX cash. maybe today.
pre-open, futures led drop- check
bernanke speaking later- check
failure to make a sentiment bottom to match the price low set yesterday and thus a need to refill the bus-check
Yanno, I used to publish "The PreFlight Checklist" before we reorganized.
The sentiment is more than adequate to set up a low. ISEE at 72 and the 10-day OEX PC is at Buy levels too. AAII there. II not but Hulbert is there.
Also, my long stochastic has turned up and that's a pretty darned good bottoming signal.
All of that said, a test or even probe lower is not out of the question. It's just that there's more upside here than downside.
How it acts on the rally will probably tell us if it's still a Bull or if we're officially in a Bear market.
Mark
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#4
eminimee
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I don't care who's fur is flying...
Posted 10 January 2008 - 10:23 AM
Some thoughts using NIKK vs SPX.....I too see the 1425/28 area on spx
http://www.traders-t...?...g&blogid=30&
http://www.traders-t...?...g&blogid=30&
Edited by Teaparty, 10 January 2008 - 10:25 AM.
#5
phineas_gage
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Posted 10 January 2008 - 10:37 AM
To extend this line of thinking: I could see this ultimately testing 1480ish SPX cash in the next few weeks. That would be 100pts give or take from the ST low from yesterday. Bush'll start rattling the fiscal policy sword-along with the Helicopter Ben show. Seasonals start skewing the data on YOY comps.
But as long as that downtrend from the highs remains in place, and major money center banks are flirting with insolvency, the direction move in the intermediate term is down.
edit:
What would it take to get Aroon on the SPX weekly to go negative?
Edited by phineas_gage, 10 January 2008 - 10:42 AM.
#6
MacRo
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Posted 10 January 2008 - 11:04 AM
What would it take to get Aroon on the SPX weekly to go negative?
What's your Aroon set to? Weekly went negative momentarily in August. If this isn't a ST bottom I could see it going negative in a few more days...
#7
phineas_gage
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Posted 10 January 2008 - 11:18 AM
Aroon Oscillator- 50wk I show it at 60.
What would it take to get Aroon on the SPX weekly to go negative?
What's your Aroon set to? Weekly went negative momentarily in August. If this isn't a ST bottom I could see it going negative in a few more days...
#8
MacRo
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Posted 10 January 2008 - 12:26 PM
Ah, I use a much shorter duration A-Osc.
As an aside, when you made the 1425 remark, did you really expect to hit it in 5 mins from 1405? 
#9
phineas_gage
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Posted 10 January 2008 - 01:39 PM
That's just my long term "are we in a bull or bear market?" thing. It's uncanny for the big picture stuff.
And no, I didn' expect that quick, but I'll take it.
And no, I didn' expect that quick, but I'll take it.
Ah, I use a much shorter duration A-Osc.
As an aside, when you made the 1425 remark, did you really expect to hit it in 5 mins from 1405?
