EW count..

Ofcourse there's lots of counts.. One possible count, however, is that we have completed a big mofo wave 4, and the last few months have been nothing but a gigantic a-b-c. That leaves wave 5 up to finish. The last low, and this recent low, could have been the bottom of wave 2 of wave 5. Which leads to... tuesday starting wave 3 UP of wave 5. And today's low being wave 2 down of the wave 3 UP. And that means.. tomorrow would be the start of wave 3 UP of wave 3 of wave 5. IF it gaps up like a mofo and screws bears like Spitzer on crack, then yes Kristen, perhaps we have a wave 3 UP. Fun to think about, and if I were a bear, my underpants would be stained with cold sweat. JUST THINK ABOUT THIS: The II poll has now hit bull levels unrivaled since THE bottom of the 2002 bear market. That's right, its that farging low, and look how high the indices are. You have everyone screaming the end of the world and out of the market and yet.. someone is holding the bags and still buying. Stay bearish folks, because we need to get to 2% bulls!

Edited by dcengr, 13 March 2008 - 08:33 PM.

Just read DaChiefs blog, looks like he favors your count-"watch the sky".

Dang, that almost ruined my day.. THANKS A LOT FOR TELLING ME THAT. If it tanks here, he'll be like 6 for 6.

I have a different count, but believe wave 2 was today and wave 3 of C goes into Tuesday. I'm bullish, very bullish into next week.

dcengr-Sorry, couldn't resist. My count is different than yours or bluestars, but I think we'll all know tomorrrow which count plays out. I'm very close to flat, and truly wish you the best of luck.

Dcenger,

I don't see how anyone can count that recent move up as 5 waves....Can you show me how?

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=1&yr=0&mn=0&dy=4&i=p07660815115&a=133096378&r=2719.png

Edited by StillLearnin, 13 March 2008 - 10:19 PM.

Looking at the grande picture...last October's high was the termination phase of the echo bubble mania (this time being the "world is awash in liquidity" aka cheap credit/EZ financing bubble) or Wave B in the Supercycle Bear Market. The intraday action tells all.....there's no sign of robust accumulation, just a bunch of overnight futures jamming and dollar devaluation....see red line in chart below.

In Feb, we completed wave iv of (1) down with wave b of larger A (a 3 wave ABC affair to complete v of (1)) having completed today or late tommorrow. After the ensuing low targeting ~ 3/21 and a double-bottom for IVV, we'll see a large countertrend rally into ~ 4/7, at which point economic reality will strike in the form of earnings releases and then begins the much anticipated turd of a turd (and yes, that is a turd as in shizzle hits the fan) which should takes us down close to 250-300 handles on the SPX, targeting the 1100 area.

OCICBW....and we all know u can't trade wave counts

I have the count you show above in mind as possible. But if you drill in real good to the 1 min time frame like I have done above to examine that initial move of what would be the beginnings of wave 3 it clearly can not be counted as 5 ways. If there is I have'nt found it...And don't count that drop yesterday morning as wave 4...way to small...That is the reason I went flat this morning..... SL

oh forget your counts... and watch the sky... for a week or so... then keep watching... for falling stars....