Gann Turn Window - Did We See the Bottom or..

There's only one determining factor for today and that is.... WILL THEY BUY IT? It's all about the Volume. I've shown this 2003 chart about a dozen times... but here it is again, when these things come off the bottom and stick it's on strong upside volume - if we don't get it, it's just another bear market short covering panic... which takes short interest out of the market. No follow through, and then DOWN WE GO.

Here's what you should expect if you think we saw the bottom:

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

The bottom is confirmed on the strong upside volume and the pullback on lighter volume.

Edited by SemiBizz, 14 March 2008 - 08:03 AM.

Semi - does it matter that for the last month or so, the down days have had less volume than the up days? Or are you looking for a much larger difference between them? Thanks much!

It's constructive, we can say that, but does it make it the bottom? Not until we see a sign of strength.

Signs the bottom is NOT in:

-The move off the $1272 low was 3 waves
-Internals
-SMH: See chart below. What direction do triangles normally resolve? Thats right: In the direction of the trend. (Triangles usually occur as a 4th wave BTW)
-$VIX (she chart below) Wave count on $VIX suggests we need one more push higher on $VIX

http://stockcharts.c...8703&r=8926.png
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p14337023075&a=128894579&r=3844.png

Sorry SL, your charts are overly complex for me. All I need is volume,time and price and history, and then add that to some simple candle analysis. As you can see Gann Turns are powerful, causing both bulls and bears to question their foundations.

Semi..

Sorry...should have cleaned it up. I removed all the unnecessary data so that everyone can focus on what I want them to see which is a pretty clear elliot count on the $VIX. I use a 10 ma to smooth it out... This is a simple count even for those who are not real familiar with elliot.

Also the SMH chart is clear, no?

I have not gotten arround to studying Gann? I will try to soon. Is there a specific source you have for that? Also where did you learn your volume analysis techniques?

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&i=p09768148008&a=128894579&r=7734.png

Edited by StillLearnin, 14 March 2008 - 09:51 AM.

This is pretty simple, all of this business, and I believe it is over-analyzed. Wyckoff believed that "indicators" were designed by the operators to fool the public. I'm sticking to a very simple approach that has been consistently profitable for me. Now, your SMH chart looks better than you think. First of all look at the candle lows, we have a consistent pattern of higher lows, all reversals, all on light volume. the high since the January Low on 2/1 came on the highest volume since the January Low. Then you look over at the comparison candle on 1/4 ... Now on stronger volume we failed to test that 1/4 HIGH... so that's a negative. I think it's a pretty simple solution here, we either break over the 2/1 and 1/4 highs now on volume or break the January low on volume. If I was forced to say, I'd say it looks more bullish than bearish... But anyway, the parameters are all set, I don't see Risk/Reward shorting it here for the reasons I outlined... over 30.44 on volume and that starts to interest me.

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

Edited by SemiBizz, 14 March 2008 - 10:16 AM.

One of my forward indicators is flashing NEUTRAL in all of this turmoil... Not sure yet if that should be construed as a positive or not...

http://bigcharts.mar...&mocktick=1.gif

Thanks Semi! Good Trading!

OK, MAKE OR BREAK TIME !!