We Need to see A LOT MORE BEARS before this thing can turn!!
I'll be watching this site for mea culpas...
Sentiment proving to be a poor tool
Started by
SemiBizz
, Mar 14 2008 01:00 PM
10 replies to this topic
#1
SemiBizz
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Volume Dynamics Specialist
Posted 14 March 2008 - 01:00 PM
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#2
pdx5
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I want return OF my money more than return ON my money
Posted 14 March 2008 - 01:18 PM
There are usually more bears in a "bear" market?
"Money cannot consistently be made trading every day or every week during the year." ~ Jesse Livermore Trading Rule
#3
SemiBizz
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Posted 14 March 2008 - 01:21 PM
One would think eh? 
Maybe they just need to tweak their expected-turn ratios... 
Maybe they just need to tweak their expected-turn ratios...
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#4
IndexTrader
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Posted 14 March 2008 - 01:35 PM
The problem is the data. For instance, the Investors Intelligence is a poll of market writers. What we don't know is how many of the readers of the market writers have actually acted based on what the writer wrote. Put/call ratios? Yeah, hard to tell what's happening there. Hedging...long stock, long put? Short puts? Bought by someone who was long the stock? So many possibilities that to take a raw number and put a forecast on it is pretty tough.
Based on the sentiment indices, many resisted the advance off the lows in 2003, for a long, long time. It seems as if we are now witnessing the opposite, as has been mentioned by others.
IT
#5
isaac613
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Posted 14 March 2008 - 02:03 PM
The problem is this market is confusing as hell. Like the qqqq looks like it should drop but financials look overdone. Which way to go. Thats the problem I still think we test 40.25 before anymore up moves.
#6
qqqqtrdr
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Posted 14 March 2008 - 02:07 PM
Here is what I see on the market...
Sentiment being bearish ==> Bullish AAII Bulls at 22% ( bottoms are usually made at these levels )
OEX 10-day Put Call at a Low over the last two years ==> Somewhat Bullish
CBOE and Equity 10-day Put/Call moving up to be high ==> Bullish
QQQQ MaxPain for March is at 45...... Can you say Rally next week.
When we touch new lows these indicators seem to be getting more bullish as time goes on. I interpret this as a bottom is being made or is getting closer. If these indicators actually get less bullish at bottoms, I would be worried. This is what happen in 2001, 2002, 2003 time frame.
Barry
#7
SemiBizz
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Posted 14 March 2008 - 02:09 PM
How about VIX at 32+?... Nah still too low...
Price and Volume Forensics Specialist
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
Richard Wyckoff - "Whenever you find hope or fear warping judgment, close out your position"
Volume is the only vote that matters... the ultimate sentiment poll.
http://twitter.com/VolumeDynamics http://parler.com/Volumedynamics
#8
tommyt
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Posted 14 March 2008 - 02:18 PM
We Need to see A LOT MORE BEARS before this thing can turn!!
Semi...I don't agree...sentiment is not a timing tool, its a tool that gives u evidence. Under current II numbers, 43% bears, we could go down 700 pts Monday, and then come back by weeks end...all while this 43% doesn't change. When you get to an extreme, throw them out and know you are close.
#9
KCScott
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Posted 14 March 2008 - 03:13 PM
When we touch new lows these indicators seem to be getting more bullish as time goes on. I interpret this as a bottom is being made or is getting closer. If these indicators actually get less bullish at bottoms, I would be worried. This is what happen in 2001, 2002, 2003 time frame.
Barry
My question is who has the $$$ to buy?
Are there $$$ on the sidelines waiting to get in?
As individuals, the answer may be yes, but the institutions would seem to be mounting losses under the sell volume and, despite the injections of liquidity, don't have the capital to buy at levels needed to counter the Bears.
Maybe there's something I'm not seeing here, but when you have a BSC going belly up, that would represnt the slowest gazelle in the herd.
I just don't think the other gazelles are that much faster.
KC Scott Blogs at IBC: http://ibankcoin.com/kcscott/
#10
dcengr
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Posted 14 March 2008 - 07:45 PM
My question is who has the $$$ to buy?
Are there $$$ on the sidelines waiting to get in?
The answer is, for every buyer there's a seller. Who has $$$ to buy? They've BOUGHT already. While the bears have been pummeling the indices while it went nowhere, and bear positions increasing every poll, who's been on the other side buying?
Certainly not the poll participants.
Why do you think those buyers were buying? Certainly not so they can lose money later. The last 2 months, bear levels have increased about another 30% while price has decreased like 3-5% (or hardly any at all, depending on where you think the average is). So who's sucking in the slack?
Maybe the guberment
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?
