1919-1921 Weimar Germany
# Bank interest rate - still 5%
# German stock market at 97 in January 1919, 166 in January 1920, 278 in January 1921 and 731 in December 1921.
# The general price level has doubled since 1914.
# Most of the rest of the world allows their money supplies to contract as a "war withdrawal" effect, and goes into recession or depression (general prices fell 16% in the U.S. in 1921). Germany keeps creating or printing money, and the government deficits continue to increase.
# Newspapers and many financial folk are very confused by the continual price increases. Its blamed somewhat on the Versailles Treaty and France but mostly on speculators and "foreigners" inside Germany (an ominous sign and similarity to what's ahead with Hitler and the Holocaust, etc.).
# In other countries, its blamed on the German government deficit. But the real problem is that too much money is being created by the German banks.
The key point is, when Fed stop cutting or raise interest rates, the equity market will go to the sky, per this Weimar model.
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Weimar Formula- Currency Plunged, Stock Market Skyrocketing
Started by
iloli way
, Mar 14 2008 05:13 PM
No replies to this topic
#1
Posted 14 March 2008 - 05:13 PM
PRICE IS KING; LINE RULES! - Laws Of Line (LOL) Trading Systems
Swing Those Lines: I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people! -- Issac Newton
Swing Those Lines: I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people! -- Issac Newton










