How I see most traders on this board

There's some good traders here, but there's only a few I really respect. I'd say about 10% are perma bulls, about 10% are perma bears.. About 70% are momo traders.. that works well, except we've been moving SIDEWAYS for 2 months. Granted, we may plunge below the lows, in which case, momentum to the downside will continue, and they would be right. But let me remind some of you of my observations.. 70% of the momo traders on this board had NO CLUE where the top was, or that the trend was about to change, until about 70% of the downside had already occurred. And while we're in bearish sentiment unseen except at market bottoms statistically, many stay bearish and crowing that its "going there way" despite the fact its been really going nowhere. The 10% I know that are really good pick tops and bottoms. I've seen them take some pain, but they are not momo traders. Its dangerous to run with the herd. Sure the momos can be right and we could plunge below. Sure even I remain bearish for the long term. But its the honest truth the way I interpret people's posts here. Just thought I'd point it out so you can look in the mirror and see how your own emotional make up is vs your own capabilities.

DCENGR I dont get it, are you trying to make yourself feel better or trying to make others feel worse? Then Feel better.

DCENGR I dont get it, are you trying to make yourself feel better or trying to make others feel worse? Then Feel better.

No, its just an observation, that's all. I find it amusing people use phrases like "trend is down" etc etc.

In a trendless market, almost anyone can make money flipping a coin and going long or short at a given time. When a trend resumes, that's when you can tell who's made the right call.

But so far, all I see is a LOT of emotion, not a lot of fact about why people's positions keep getting larger. I guess thats what they call "entrenchment".

Wasn't meant to be offensive, just what I've observed.

You're not one of those No Stop guys are ya?

I have a stop.. I posted it in one of my other posts.. I said it has to decisively break the last lows (on the dow). I give it wiggle that this could be wave 5 down, which would be a terminating move. So Semi, lets hear where your positions are and where YOUR stops are then? You know I'm 200% long taken at least in 2 positions, one near the lows, one a bit higher, which averages out to slightly higher than these levels, under a few percent basically. How much have you got, and at what levels?

DCENGR I dont get it, are you trying to make yourself feel better or trying to make others feel worse? Then Feel better.

dcengr is an ex-perma bear. i think he found self-righteousness on that looong vacation he took when he got his as handed to him !

ed rader

Edited by ed rader, 14 March 2008 - 08:13 PM.

dcengr-Interesting comments. It seems like you are implying the market has been trendless and random for a couple months, which is very simply not true. A solid wavecount made the market quite tradable and profitable, Yes, while we made the flat four wave for 27 days or so-there was little good trading to be had index wise-but individual stock wise-plenty was available. The three down trended straight down-or are you looking for a longer time period? The market, minus wavecount pops up-has been trending lower since October-not trendless in my book. The best traders know better than to try and pick tops or bottoms-and have NO need for it-the 80% in the middle is just fine for them, no need to be a hero-that's my take anyway. Waiting for a turn doesn't make you less of a trader-it proves you like confirmation. The risk in trying to catch a falling knife and call the bottom is obvious-and being demonstrated by traders here very well. Do I need to run trades without stops, endure huge drawdowns, double down on losing positions to be considered a good trader? If so, no thanks. Not interested in recognition, I just trade for cash-have done it for a living since 1981. PS, price dictates-not sentiment.

I don't have any positions at present. You may recall my forecasts back in January. I said I expected a full moon low, we got it. I made some handsome profits on QID in January, and covered the very day of the low, per my trading plan. I mentioned at that time that I expected us to trade sideways-up for one moon cycle... we did just that. And my plan also included staying out of longs during that period because I expected all surprises to be to the downside. I established some short positions on that full moon that got rudely interrupted by Charlie Gap a Reno and his rumor mill, I was stopped out with profits when we got the bounce. When it was clear from my chart work that we would head lower, I got back in short... Now my original plan called for a decline into Mid-March, and we have it. I traded QID , SMN and SDS over the last 2 weeks... and closed out all of them, because as you know, I forecasted today to be a Gann Turn. Except for Charlie, it all worked according to my plan. When the rumor mill punched it up, I had to get out of the way, other than that, you have read my posts, I forecast a Gann Turn for today, I think we may have had it, so it's time for me to be flat. This weekend I will pull out the charts and evaluate my next move. I am not interested in going long, though... because I suspect any upside we get will be just like the last one... sideways up. I need to decide if the 2 day Gann Turn was a high or a low. It looks like a low, but I'll know more after I do my studies... Overall, I try to plan my trades and trade my plan. When conditions develop that don't match the plan, it's time to take my stop. So, I may just be sidelined here for a couple weeks while we make that sideways-up move. That's fine, I am patient. I did get one "bottoming" signal today on ALTR. Let's see how it works out. I would probably be inclined to buy semiconductors if I felt strongly that we could rally for a week or so. My work isn't perfect, neither is anyone else's. Above all else, my first job is capital preservation in this type of bear market environment. Then comes profit.

No, I'm still a bear just not right now. I'll turn bearish when most here turn bullish

No, I'm still a bear just not right now. I'll turn bearish when most here turn bullish

while you are waiting get one of these.........

http://www.pimpdaddy...d-el-11132.html

and wrap a rubber band around a wad of some of your recent earnings and stick it in your front pocket....and get on with your bad self .

ed rader