Interesting times...

Folks, I am not here to mug anyone or any group of traders but there are interesting things I read today.. I think this is all part of what is going on in the market at this juncture and we can profit from it, statistically.... First, it is not a secret that there are only 3 or 4 actively posting bulls left on TT. Some of them got long earlier... like my ES trades which I gave realtime. I am currently down 32 points on these... I am also long NQs as posted realtime a while ago. I am up 28 points on this... All times and prices are shown in my signature with links to the original posts... I think this is the best I can do to clarify where I stand. I will explain why I did this after I point out two observations of mine. First one is the consistent bipolar behavior of some who I believe got short in the very late stages of this move as understood from their earlier views in late 2007 / early 2008. Like Cirrus who comes out at the low end of the current trading range to remind people that how bad my ES positions got while ignoring the fact that I also carry NQs which mostly stayed profitable from the beginning... Now, have you watched how BSC got sliced today and how fast SPX plunged at the open? Imagine yourself shorting this index through the market while the charts showing 4 sigma moves on hourlies ... That is a crash for momos like a life time opportunity... Result? The end result is the reason these people get crazy because the result is higher low and late day rally The second is the delusional fact changing behavior, I think it is part of the psychological self defense against that guilty feeling from getting reamed continuously in a wild trading range ... For example, exaggerating or changing numbers or events like "he is down 100 points" or "he was bearish during the entire bull market" ... Those who hanged around long enough knows the truth and those who are new may see themselves with a little research. Folks, I have seen this before. It happened at several IT bottoms during the bull... Summer of 2006 or late April 2005... Check the archives, they are quite educational... I am not saying that this will end the exact same way but odds favor it will. This may be different but chances are low. There are signs in place, there are evidences in many segments of market despite the fact that the most feared things taking place at the moment.... When the worst cant break it, what will? Why the market can not break down after such a news... Clogged up with shorts or someone buying? Does it matter? Why SMH going green on a 9 to 1 down day ahead of the other sectors? Why Equity PC consistently stays over unseen levels? Have a system, execute it and let the market prove whether you are right or wrong. See you later.

Edited by A-ha, 15 March 2008 - 03:05 AM.

The only thing they're gonna believe is a 10-15% rally up their @ss.. By the time they can even come up with the nerve to push the buy button, it will be up 10% in a few days. I'm giving up trying to present my arguments.. its only asking to be attacked by people who only see momentum.

I follow your blog. Because you do original statistical and pattern work. And I for one do not like to see them to be presented to 1000s here

Folks, I have seen this before. It happened at several IT bottoms during the bull... Summer of 2006 or late April 2005... Check the archives, they are quite educational...

I am not saying that this will end the exact same way but odds favor it will. This may be different but chances are low.
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Have a system, execute it and let the market prove whether you are right or wrong.

That the odds are low that this market is different than it was at IT lows in 2005 and 2006, I respectfully disagree, and do so vehemently. And I mean both parts- "respectfully" and "vehemently". After all, if we agreed on everything, one of us would be unnesessary, right? It's late, so I can't go into all the reasons for my belief that we are solidly and squarely engaged in a true bear market....but I will, for now, just offer the following- the SPX chart for the last 18 years, with comments below:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1990-11-02&i=p30339765848&a=121323923&r=8009.png

Several brief points:

1. The 4 year cycle is hard to see during the period of the 90's because this decade capped a powerful super-cycle secular bull market that started in 1982 and culminated in the final 2000 peak. But a close look shows the relatively anemic cyclical declines penetrating the 13 month MA in 1990, 1994, 1998, then the big cyclical bear market of 2000-2003, and that we are now below the 13 month MA again. We've traded below the 13 Month MA just 5 times in that 18-year period.

2. The strength of this cyclical bear market decline is evidenced by the downturn in the direction of that 13 month MA for only the second time (the last time being the 2000-2003 bear matket) in 18 years--indicating that we are engaged in a very real cyclical bear market- and that this bear market is more important than any in the 90's.

3. This is confirmed by the monthly MACD, which is showing not only a clear downtrend, but the strongest downside momentum (as evidenced by the histogram) of any period since the 2000-2003 bear market, and it's still accelerating downward.

4. The Monthly CCI has dropped below -100, indicating strong downward trend. The only other time it did so was during the 2000-2003 bear market. It is telling us that (like 2000-2003) we are in a strong cyclical bear market.

5. These are just a few reasons why I read the current environment as very different from the IT bottoms in 2005 and 2006, and why I believe that the outcome willl be very different as well.

With regard to you final statement "Have a system, execute it and let the market prove whether you are right or wrong.", I couldn't agree more. In the end it matters not a wit whether others agree or disagree with our methodology or conclusions. The only thing that really matters is our trading result over time.

Please accept this post in the spirit which I intended- as respectful disagreement between reasonable analysts/traders. Very Best, D

Edited by IYB, 15 March 2008 - 04:41 AM.

This is my opinion too, a strong bear mkt, but we dont have any snapback move yet as monthly stoch may be anticipating. If you all liked brokers today, way for May-June weapons sector. All tied into the same thing, the same people that own you "federal" reserve own your armed services.

The EMA now looks more like what we had before the hugh 03 rally. Beside, it follows the market as opposed to leading it.

Edited by sjj, 15 March 2008 - 05:55 AM.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1990-03-15&i=p01323645394&a=133318654&r=5461.png

emdee - love that simple chart. Lots more upside than downside.

I am amazed at how winning the argument, aka being right, seems to be so important here, even tho everyone says they are 100% believers in the theory of not having to be right, of letting the market tell them... of being humble? There are a lot of different styles on the board, including momo - as we know they all can work. What is the deal demanding people show you their stops - the answer is usually "gotta protect the newbies", and that answer doesnt smell right. I expected the dollar to turn up at the beginning of the year and it didnt, so I am a fool dont listen to me. I am also a LT bear, but agree with Atilla here that we are going up within days, and with IC that bonds will be going down, his 2 year note a very good pick (the spread), and with Tim that weapons stocks look good - the sector up more than 1% today could be telling us something. I really appreciate semi, another genius on this board, who explains his rationale so everyone can learn a great deal about Wycoff, and Wavetimer, who not only makes bold predictions, but explains it carefully. There are a few more. So, after these guys give you all this, I think its a little ungrateful to pester them to give stops and exact entries and exits, to tell you how much they lost, in other words - if thats what you want, then go pay for a service, otherwise it looks a lot like simple bashing and baiting. klh

Edited by dasein, 15 March 2008 - 07:35 AM.

Atilla, I have followed you for some time on this board as well as on your old board. I am very grateful that you have been willing to continue to share your work even while others were taking cheap shots at you. Needless to say, you are one of the most gifted traders I have seen and have probably made more money than just about any of the traders who post here, or anywhere else for that matter. You and Insider (and a few others) consistently show your trades and make substantial profits even though at times you experience some uncomfortable drawdowns. You do your homework and then stand by your convictions. Thanks again for sharing your work. Best of Luck, UBW