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While ABK is on its way to zero...


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#1 arbman

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Posted 16 March 2008 - 02:11 AM

The after effects are visible now on BSC and LEH, the two large bond dealers. ABX-HE-AAA is now at 50s, the other ones (A, BB etc) are around 10-20, you could say dirt cheap. CDX indices have been constantly climbing in panic since March 5th ABK news. ABK raised $1.5B, but it's probably too little and too late for them to survive, it lost over $4B over the past 12 months, they won't last another quarter at this rate.

Without a counter party to insure the bonds in the derivatives, the carnage accelerated in the bond markets imho, Fed must cut quite a bit next week and probably Gold will blow off ahead of its pending correction. Fed already made its mind, cash is trash, yet they can't trash the cash fast enough.

In the mean time, something attracts my attention at the Fri close; the CDX-NA-IG made a new high at record spreads on Fri while the CDX-NA-HY and CDX-EM did not. Interesting divergence, we'll see whether it is a sign of a turn or purely BSC related shock and catching up of the IG toward HY bonds...

BTW, I ran into these bonds, not related to the carnage probably... only until summer...
Is this a mistake?

JPMORGAN CHASE & CO As of 15-Mar-2008
OVERVIEW Price:102.00
Coupon (%):15.350
Maturity Date:29-Aug-2008
Yield to Maturity (%):13.122
Current Yield (%):15.049
Fitch Ratings:NA
Coupon Payment Frequency:Monthly
First Coupon Date:30-Sep-2007
Type:Corporate
Callable:No

OFFERING INFORMATION
Quantity Available:25
Minimum Trade Qty:25

Dated Date:31-Aug-2007
Settlement Date:13-Sep-2007

#2 humble1

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Posted 16 March 2008 - 04:17 AM

more garbage that needs to be rolled frequently. another excellent credit (the life blood of this dying beast) analysis. thank you !