S&P 500 Cash - Big Picture

The bear market began on the SPX in the short term when 1446 support was lost on 1/4/08. The intermediate and long term entered a bear market on 1/15/08 when 1406 was lost. The intial bounce was keyed by a reversal off confirmed support at 1325 on the intermediate and long term, and a touch of 1280 confirmed support on the short term. The 1325 area has since failed to hold leaving 1280-88 area as last chance for bulls to set a double bottom. If that fails--it is a long way to the next true confirmed support at 1144. All trends are presently down--this is a confirmed bear market in all three major timeframes. So...what would it take to turn things from here? For bulls, ideally--the lows at 1270 need to hold--either outright or after an intraday stop sweep. If that happens, then the following levels need to be taken out on a close to flip the trends: ST = SPX 1311 IT = SPX 1311 LT = SPX 1374 On the other hand--a close under 1270 would most likely trigger a new round of heavy selling and open a new trading range to the downside. I have two macro targets in mind out of this present trading range (1270 - 1333). 1) If the bulls can get traction from these levels, then 1406 would be the upside target for a bear market rally to retest the breakdown area. 2) If bears can push it below recent lows on a close--then 1144 would be the ultimate target, but with possible bounces at 1223 and/or 1178 enroute. To me, this game is all about playing the odds and using good cash management rules to know exactly where one is wrong on his/her system. The numbers above determine my bias and are my cash management deliniators. Note: The current numbers on ES for comparison to the SPX numbers above are as follows: ST = ES 1332 IT = ES 1318 LT = ES 1310 Macro targets depending upon whether ES 1257 low holds are: ES 1421 / ES 1079 ...my .02