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same thing w/ LEH.... SH#T'S going wrong


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#1 TheArchitect

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Posted 19 March 2008 - 09:03 PM

go ahead.... take a look... April 25.00 LEH puts... over 25K today... thats some inside knowledge going on there... that f$&#er closed at 42ish... if THATS NOT A CLEAR SIGN... I DUNNO WHAT IS... ;)

#2 dcengr

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Posted 19 March 2008 - 09:04 PM

Its expirations.. maybe they're just rolling over?
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?

#3 dasein

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Posted 19 March 2008 - 10:34 PM

could it be that the folks who own CDS have figured out that a deal could be made where their CDS are worthless, or that the writer of their CDS would become insolvent if they had to pay, and they are now just buying options instead? klh
best,
klh

#4 TheArchitect

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Posted 19 March 2008 - 11:26 PM

could it be that the folks who own CDS have figured out that a deal could be made where their CDS are worthless, or that the writer of their CDS would become insolvent if they had to pay, and they are now just buying options instead?

klh



nope... those in the know are buying OTM puts... or selling IN THE MONEY calls... the latter is actually the most profitable here....

#5 arbman

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Posted 20 March 2008 - 12:54 AM

go ahead.... take a look... April 25.00 LEH puts... over 25K today... thats some inside knowledge going on there... that f$&#er closed at 42ish... if THATS NOT A CLEAR SIGN... I DUNNO WHAT IS..


There are multiple spread plays there, there are about 15k options defintiely sold at 1.45-1.5. So, it sure seems like the majority of those options are being sold to take advantage of the recent volatility in the stock price. However, there are massive purchases at the strike around the current prices, so the sold options are probably the far leg of their spreads. It is kind of bearish for the stock, but it does imply that the spread trader does not expect the stock price to go below 25...

So, I think you are wrong.