peak oil

anyone have any good links as to this important subject....

http://www.api.org/a...urity/index.cfm

http://www.api.org/a...urity/index.cfm

www.peakoil.com

anyone have any good links as to this important subject....

Z, its Payback time

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

This one may be better suited

http://321energy.com...etch070505.html

Google:

Hubbert's Peak
Matt Simmons
Peak Oil

Here's a link, too:
http://www.energybul....net/primer.php

There's more circumstantial evidence on peak oil happenning in 2006-7 than there was for an OJ Simpson conviction.

Google:

Hubbert's Peak
Matt Simmons
Peak Oil

Here's a link, too:
http://www.energybul....net/primer.php

There's more circumstantial evidence on peak oil happenning in 2006-7 than there was for an OJ Simpson conviction.

And OJ will kill you

The attached provides a good overview of the factors that affect oil production and Maguri has several other publications (articles and book) that are easily found with Google.

The funny thing is this is a "boy that cried wolf" story. The pundits have screamed we're running out of oil too many times and were occasionally believed. The irony is this time the facts and proof are there and the vast minority is about all who realize peak oil is here. I think the administration knows peak oil is here from some of the stuff I've read. it's not in anyone's interest to broadcast to the masses at this point in time is likely what they're thinking. I look at Bill Miller and shake my head. He has and continues to deny the commodity bull/energy bull and has been buying financials. Meanwhile, his fund has really tanked the past couple of years. I've read lots about the guy and his decisions as sort of my own personally case study. He's a major manager and I use him as a representative of a class of managers who are competent but fighting the last war. He thinks it's 1990-2. If you really analyze the macros nothing could be further from the truth. His fund has the words "Value Trust" in it. He's buying and holds stocks with above market multiples and declining estimates. The world has really changed in many respects from a macro economic standpoint and so many managers just don't get it. I don't know if it's pride, laziness or incompetence or a combination.

Edited by Cirrus, 07 May 2008 - 07:13 PM.

Zapata George has been saying that demand has outsrtipped supply. Anyone know if this is true? If so...well.... *gulp* I googled for a current chart but came up empty. Zappy G comes off like a crackpot, but at least the oil and metals portion of his predictions have been right on.

If one believes that the earth is a sphere with a finite volume then one has to believe that hydrocarbons are also finite. However, peak oil (i.e., peak in production) is a complex animal that reflects not only what is in the ground but also technology, economics, and politics which affect everything from exploration to refining. As Maguri correctly notes the Hubbert curve is based on limited knowledge of geological conditions. A a simplistic model that has repeatedly failed through the years as new technologies have evolved, as "off limit" areas were opened, and as economics justified more expensive exploration and production, resulting in increasing estimates of recoverable reserves by peak oilers like Campbell. At the same time, other peak oilers like Simmons see secondary revcovery techniques as evidence that the end is here which is nonsense. There is also the reality that those who own the oil purposely do not explore or extract at the maximum rate in order to extend the "good" times (I would if it was in my backyard). Standard estimates tend to agree that there is about 30 years of "easily" extracted oil available, including I assume extraction from forbidden areas (e.g., waters off FL and CA, Alaska, etc.) - about 1 trillion barrels. To that one adds non-conventional resources such as tar sands and oil shale which are estimated by the World Energy Council to be 2.4 trillion barrels. It was noted during the Senate debate today that extraction, for example, from oil shale with existing technology is estimated to be about 1/2 the current cost of crude which is extracted for "peanuts." Putting it all together the estimates that oil will be around for 100 years seems realistic. All of this does not mean that we should not develop strategies for kicking the oil habit. This requires significant governmental leadership which can be found in some countries but not in the U.S. Such leadership will not emerge, I suspect, until there is a need to do so when the first city goes cold and dark.