The Recession We all Knew we would get

Is it possible it's not going to happen? I've been very suspicious of the ability of nearly everyone to predict a recession and to all predict it at the same time and be right. The recession we are "in" has become common wisdom. How bad it's going to be is also well "known". Now the checks are hitting and people are gong to be spending money, just in time for the fall elections.

I've always thought the real "you know what" will begin to hit the fan next spring due to their keeping "Bernie" propped up until after the inaugural. Paulsen, Bush and most others will be gone by then anyway. Their job is to get through the "weekend."

Edited by OEXCHAOS, 09 May 2008 - 03:31 PM.
naughty language

I've always thought the real [bleeeep] will begin to hit the fan next spring due to their keeping Bernie propped up until after the elections.

that is exactly how I am playing it...

I think we are in a recession....a consumer led recession....those cheques will do nothing apart from pay off some credit card debt for purchases that have already been made........Me thinks we are grinding out a significant top here and only half finished with the drop off the Oct highs.

look for the trannie to double top or slight new high..if it hasn't topped already
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRAN&p=W&yr=10&mn=6&dy=0&i=p77150441359&a=121999404&r=3236.png

It seems like the overall take is that it will be short, 2nd half of year gets better, worst behind us, ect. The consumer is much weaker than currently being portrayed, and we are a consumer driven economy. The same story (worst now over) was being spun about the financials, yet every day or two-another one drops a bomb. And when the worst is over for them, many of them have diluted their stock so much raising capital that it is going to be a long time before they have any respectable earnings. Look at the auto sales, toyota included-there is no recession? I think Mark had a good take here when he said the real problems will show up when the Fed dries up the liquidity pool. The internals of this market continue to show that sideline money (of which their is a TON) has NOT yet come into this rally-until it does, all I see is a ton of possible negative internal divergence sitting there-not too fresh. If we make another new high, and internals do not confirm-I think the market is toast.

we're in a recession and it will get worse. greenspan today said that houses are going much lower. buffett said by any definition we are in a recession. of course larry kudlow will tell you every night why we aren't in a recession . i personally think it will be a long recession and before it's over we'll see massive lay-offs. good luck to all of you ! ed rader

Edited by ed rader, 09 May 2008 - 03:25 PM.

we're in a recession and it will get worse. greenspan today said that houses are going much lower. buffett said by any definition we are in a recession. of course larry kudlow will tell you every night why we aren't in a recession .

i personally think it will be a long recession and before it's over we'll see massive lay-offs. good luck to all of you !

ed rader

Whether you call it a recession or not, i suspect the economy is going to be sucking wind for a long long while. I know a lot of people in various businesses and unless you are somehow selling international or have some profoundly unique niche, your business life very well sucks right now. Being in sales I call on industrial/commercial businesses of all types. from small to the very large. I have not EVER seen this many people be so negative about business prospects going forward in over 20 years in sales.

even my brother in law who owns a highly successful and diversified business who has seen some deep recessionary times, say things are just not looking so hot. His customers are hurting the worst he's seen in years. And this guy is eternally optimistic. even in bad times.

the gubmint will spin this thing as not being a recession for so long, people will just shrug and ignore them because they know the truth the face each day.

I've always thought the real "you know what" will begin to hit the fan next spring due to their keeping "Bernie" propped up until after the inaugural. Paulsen, Bush and most others will be gone by then anyway. Their job is to get through the "weekend."

This post has been edited by OEXCHAOS: Today, 03:31 PM
Reason for edit: naughty language

Sorry Mark.

Edited by milbank, 09 May 2008 - 08:11 PM.

With elections looming on the horizon, no self-respecting politician will admit recession. Are you kidding? Their own re-election depends on "are you better off now than when I was elected"...thingy. Why do you think they are sending me a bribe of $1200? I say throw the bums out!! (after we cash those checks)