And to think I was nervous of my major purchase of USO at 45

I luv those kinds of emotions.... GORO was a nice buy at the time too. Buck fitty then. Cheap,cheap,cheap ! (so much easier than frequent trading...) I don't know how u traders do it everyday. And portfolio up nicely in '08 as well. I luv recession talk. keep it comin' !!!

I own GORO....but at higher prices of course.

I own GORO....but at higher prices of course.

I expect to go a lot higher sooner than most think. Gold stocks will surprise some folks.

I own GORO....but at higher prices of course.

I expect to go a lot higher sooner than most think. Gold stocks will surprise some folks.

Nimblebear

You are a longer term trader, are there any good boards for that type of investing to research ideas with one another...share thoughts? Where do you find most of your ideas to hold longer term from?

Thanks

I own GORO....but at higher prices of course.

I expect to go a lot higher sooner than most think. Gold stocks will surprise some folks.

Nimblebear

You are a longer term trader, are there any good boards for that type of investing to research ideas with one another...share thoughts? Where do you find most of your ideas to hold longer term from?

Thanks

That would be a great idea you have to start a board like that. I go all over, and do my own time intensive research. (that's time spent instead of frequent trading, though I do get lots of good ideas from traders, which is why I like this board). I will see if I can pm you some sites later. I look for long term macro plays in areas I know a thing or two about. CCJ will be another nice one to add more to as prices dip IMHO. Some like USO are so obvious its scarry. Those are the ones that make me nervous but they work well. I used to do this before the internet was around and it was a PITA. The internet is both a big time saver and a time waster if not used properly. But now there is a lot of garbage promulgated so you still have to do your own work. I do use some TA to help ID the dips to buy along the way. Works well too.

USO tip: keep in mind that huge portions of the world's populace buy oil below market, so price signals are distorted, and supply/demand fundmentals arent what they should be. Thats driving the price higher for all others. People in China pay $2. Russia $2, and middle east super cheap for gas and oil. If economies slow, and the gubmits can't subsidize longer, the huge demand from the populace could slow, driving their prices higher, but then world oil priced in dollars could drop quite a bit until price signals normalize again to account for the change in the artificial disruption caused by those gubmits doing the dirty deed.

I luv those kinds of emotions....

GORO was a nice buy at the time too. Buck fitty then. Cheap,cheap,cheap !

(so much easier than frequent trading...) I don't know how u traders do it everyday.

And portfolio up nicely in '08 as well. I luv recession talk.

keep it comin' !!!

Nimblebear,

This post just touched my biggest OUCH of my trading history. Very precise about the emotion of bottom picking a very inflammable trade. Nervous! Yea, I bought USO in that time frame, but was major involved in SPPIX, actually just looked my recored, multiple thousands sh USO @43.84 on 1/22/07. Trade was based on the same reasons as your long term macro play perception. So it was meant to keep. Had I hold it til yesterday, let me see, that's close to seven figures profit, this one trade alone! "(so much easier than frequent trading...) I don't know how u traders do it everyday." I am posting this by my trading station today, to slap my face from time to time.

gf

BTW, I feel uneasy to expose my trade size, even tried to be subtly, it's been over a year, a long gone history, don't mean to offend anyone. But I thought if I don't mention the size of the trade it wouldn't carry the weight...so be it. I sold it the very next day 1/23/07 @45.65 and thought I made a big profit, LOL. Did not go back to trade USO, becuse I prefer working the broad market. I could PM nimblebear, but think it's more beneficial for the board this way. Nimblebear got a very important point here, sometimes a very long term 'buy and hold' is much easier and profitable way to live a trader's life! Trust thy work and stick it. Thanks for sharing. I am sure many here have the same trader's wisdom in your bag...

I find it interesting -- from the standpoint of sentimentology -- how the "buy and hold" crowd unfailingly shows up at/near peaks to boast about their XXX returns. Four months ago back in January, when ^CRB was trading at 360, I started a thread titled "Commodities: The Last Wave" and only got 2 replies. http://www.traders-t...?...c=82464&hl= Now, it seems EVERYONE is trading oil and commodities, hmm ...

I've traded commodity-related stocks for 5 years, and can tell you that these sectors have the biggest swings in both directions (which is precisely why I like to trade them). I've seen stocks like AKS go from $3 to $70 and BHP from $15-$85 and PTR from $20-$200. Or how about PBR from $20-$130 (pre-split) ? At the same time, a buy-and-hold approach to those same stocks required holding thru draw-downs of 30-50% during steep corrections. And what about the buy-and-hold crowd leftover from the tech bubble that are sitting on stocks that went from $200 to $1 ? If you dont apply a TA discipline, what is really the difference between the two approaches, other than pure guesswork and luck ?

How about that 7-month correction from mid-06 when USO corrected from $75 to $42 ? (that's a 55% haircut). Did all of the buy-and-holders sit comfortably on their ports then, too ? Are you planning to sit through the next 30-50% draw-down ? Later this summer, when $gold is trading in the $600-$700 range and oil is back to $60-$80, how many of these same posters will be singing the "buy and hold" mantra ?

This is a technical trading forum. There are other boards devoted to fundamental analysis (see www.valueforum.com -- requires a paid subscription). So, if you've got a forward-looking trade, let's hear it.

/rant off/

Edited by beta, 10 May 2008 - 01:01 PM.