Posted 12 May 2008 - 08:30 AM
Traditional OPEX cycle for the Month of May 2008 was inverted as we saw a high of 1424 the Wed before OPEX on the June ES very early in the morning on Globex when the Nikki afternoon session was starting. This was also a divergent high to the pre-market high on the Friday employment report at 1427. Daily and hourly stuff was overbought on the cash closes Tuesday after the big reversal rally.
The sell off into Friday open last week could have signaled an OPEX buy if there had been follow thru into the close but that did not happen.
I think this OPEX cycle will be a choppy intraday event with attempts to rally but they get sold, so not a good set up for Options. Good trading though.
This morning I have a sell around 1395 or so in the 1st hour, a buy later on in the early afternoon if we take out the Friday morning low at 1381.75 and hold the 1375 range, then continued rally into Tuesday sometime.
This past year, it seems like we have the big OPEX rallies every 2-4 months, so April 2008 was sweet but came late in the cycle.