Fourier, got it!

This one is a drilldown look from the March lows but starting a few days early to get a 47 day fundamental.
Using detrended NDX, is similar to assigning the linear regression slope to
the 142 day upthrust. ( missing the 71 day is not significant )

This one agrees within a day, with the larger view of two 142 day fundam. periods.

surge to Tues ( not Monday as I thought )
11 day nom low friday.
Tues looks like an excellent day to get flat.

Remember the linear slope uptrend is under this.
The alternate of fairly flat until a minor low in 10 days is probably not going to happen.

Arbman, Thanks for your post. I have a question regarding your analysis (which is new to me). Is your chart indicating that the market is at a 6 week bottom along with 22 and 40-42 week tops? If that is true, do differing cycle lengths carry different weightings? Thanks again for your help. tradercw

The 40-42 trading days / 5 = 7.5-8 wks, these are bottoming not topping, the larger 20-22 wk cycle is topping though. The market will be also in the second half of the 16 wk harmonics after any rally from this 8 week cycle low. I believe the number 6 is an abberation. It is better to pay attention to the actual trading days for cycle periods shorter than 10 wks or so. There are about 4 harmonics that fit under 10 wks (50 trading days), you will not get them with the weekly filter, it will be too blurred. The 20-22 trading days is the smaller harmonics of the 40-42 tday cycle, there is also the 10 days on the same chart and another 5-6 tdays. So, the 16 wks is the larger harmonics of the 40-42 tdays cycle. I tend to look at the charts for very short term (intraday) price behaviour...

Edited by arbman, 11 May 2008 - 02:41 PM.