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Trade update for August 11 Shorts


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#1 skott

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Posted 24 August 2008 - 06:11 PM

I posted my exit of longs and entry of shorts here

http://www.traders-t...?...55&hl=skott

You may remember the chart I showed and labeled. Here it is again and we have had the break and the normal test of that line from the underside. What was support is of course now resistance. Also the retrace we've had since the August 11 top is a fib 61.8% and the end of the rise could be an ending diagonal.

SPY.jpg

The Dow action looks the same with a longer time frame look on this chart

_INDU.jpg

#2 skott

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Posted 24 August 2008 - 09:18 PM

A longer term view of the Dow going back to Oct 2007. The market can always do what it wants but to this point it has done bearish things since at least Oct. Tests of support have failed and downtrend line have been respected throughout Dow__August_22.jpg Step out even further and you can see just how important that support line was/is. a giant Head and shoulders(H&S) like this can't easily be ignored. It is a confirmed break and we have tested that previous support and it has proven to be stiff resistance. If this plays out as a H&S is supposed to add to it some judgement you're looking at a market that could trade anywhere from 9900 to 8750. Dow_H_S_Top.jpg I respect everyone else's opinion and I could be wrong be this is what I'm seeing. My timing indicators are primed for a decline. Good luck to all.

Edited by skott, 24 August 2008 - 09:20 PM.


#3 skott

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Posted 24 August 2008 - 10:38 PM

P.S. I am leaning towards a strong week for oil and gold.... gold down tonite about $8.00 If what I say matters to you tune in the rest of this week particularly Friday. Any spike in the stock markets tomorrow should IMO be shorted.

#4 beta

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Posted 24 August 2008 - 11:05 PM

Thanks for the update and charts. Agree w/ your observations, and also positioned short broads/long commodities. Only thing that makes me hesitate here is thinking that the "real" move down begins post-Labor Day.
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#5 skott

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Posted 24 August 2008 - 11:49 PM

I think we are going to have 2 moves. The first will be this week and down. I don't know about post labor day yet but probably a rally at that point but nothing spectacular. 2nd move will be down in Sept.

Edited by skott, 24 August 2008 - 11:52 PM.


#6 skott

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Posted 25 August 2008 - 12:14 AM

As I said earlier gold is down tonite $7-$8. If you have the ability to trade gold futures this looks like a great place to buy. Check it again in the morning if you want to buy GLD or the double long gold ETF (DGP) Here is the chart: Nice looking cup and handle pulling back to support Gold_C_H.jpg If you find my comments usefull please go by my profile and give me a good rating. thanks

#7 skott

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Posted 25 August 2008 - 01:16 AM

forgot to respond to you Beta. Thanks. and thanks to whoever gave me ratings. I appreciate all votes. (yeah, I was one of those kids who liked the gold stars)

#8 skott

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Posted 25 August 2008 - 09:52 AM

It's looking like we'll print 1269 on S&P futures today. If you went short last night when I suggested(futures were flat) you are up about 14 pts so far

#9 skott

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Posted 25 August 2008 - 11:11 AM

1269 Just printed

#10 kidkoala

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Posted 25 August 2008 - 11:29 AM

Another nice call, Skott. Prescient.

I've been approached by a beautifull married women to have an affair, several married men openly court mistresses, I've been offered friends with benefits package by a young lady, guys email women pics of their genitals. I am just amazed. At one time our morality was a strength, our faith was a strength both a big strength for this country. It seems gone and people who don't realize this has big implications for our future are kidding themselves


Have you been hanging out on Craigslist? :D

Anyway, it's all true. Whenever I go back to the Bay Area, there's no such thing has common courtesy or road etiquette. Except for a few pockets in the US that are a haven, it's long gone.

Edited by kidkoala, 25 August 2008 - 11:30 AM.