I think I'd put the bear/bull line at SPX 1277...swinger, what do you think?
Pretty much the same as my last post on 8/20...
VST on ES, the trade here is now long from 1262 after covering a short held since 1308.
Support for the IT up leg (which started on 7/15) is at 1262 and that is what they are fighting over right here. If that holds, then a bounce is possible with first upside target of 1276-78, then 1295 if they keep going.
If 1262 bounce attempt fails, then that number becomes new stop/reverse line and 1226 looks like the next target lower.
For LT/IT/ST the key number remains 1280--price action remains bearish below, but would switch bias to bullish above that number.
The VST trading range here is 1262 - 1295. Any wiggling inside here is pretty much meaningless from a trending perspective. They have already tagged both sides of the move I was looking for--so now just gotta wait and see what comes next.
Sooner or later they'll break out of this range on one side or the other--but for now, they are just running the clock between 1262 - 1295.
On weekly bars--1295 is major resistance and a failure to punch through there could set up a test of the long term (bullish) trend channel bottom. If that were to fail--then it would be very bearish, of course. On the other hand--if they were to goose this and punch back up and and through 1295 then that sets up an extremely bullish scenario targeting 1441 area from the 7/15 touch of that same channel. This is a pro move setting up, I think--and when they get all positioned it could move quickly to trap those on the wrong side of the trade. Those who guess right on leveraged instruments could do well in the coming months.
...my .02
