no need to guess ,,,,hopefully the futures gap up and trend and the move will be big enought that you dont have to guess the gap..
i already placed my bet today at nq 1880
we all agree a big move is coming
Started by
atlasshrugged
, Aug 26 2008 08:05 PM
5 replies to this topic
#2
milbank
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Posted 26 August 2008 - 09:01 PM
I trade the day. Intermediate term is not my bag but, I can't help but think that during this period between convention and election, approximately nine to ten weeks, there is going to be an effort to put the best face on the situations affecting the economy in order to help Senator McCain. A major drop would not help him. I think over this period at least, the market is going to be on an upswing. I don't think I'm being political in saying this. I'm just looking at the type of noise I expect and the type of bullsh bias, it will produce in the equity markets. All bets are off if some "event" happens that overpowers everything. I expect, alot like 1981, a few months after Reagan was inaugurated, the market truly begins to drop. I expect this to happen no matter who gets elected. There are too many pressures upon the "real" economy that have not bottomed yet and even if commodity prices improve, the improvement will not be enough to take the pressure off of consumers which will in turn affect broad swaths of business. For example, even if gas goes down from $4.00 to as much as $3.25 (that's a best case price), Joe and Jane will still be paying alot for gas in 2009 and it will still affect food and other consumables. The downward moving snowball is a hard one to stop. Unemployment begats unemployment. Foreclosure begets foreclosure as housing prices drop. I think the hardest part is yet to come but, I don't expect it until next spring. I certainly don't expect it before the election.
"The power of accurate observation is commonly called cynicism by those who have not got it."
--George Bernard Shaw
"None are so hopelessly enslaved as those who falsely believe they are free."
--Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
#3
nimblebear
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Welcome to the Dark Side !
Posted 26 August 2008 - 11:53 PM
big move IS coming. for sure. my toilet is not prepared for this. i assure you.
OTIS.
#4
atlasshrugged
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Posted 27 August 2008 - 01:34 AM
big move IS coming. for sure. my toilet is not prepared for this. i assure you.
there is two ways to interpret that...
1) you think its going down the toilet ( which i assume you mean)
2) you are so leveraged that if it goes the opposite way..well lets just so getting to the toilet will be a feat
#5
relax
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Posted 27 August 2008 - 04:09 AM
breadth does not support a big rally
after monday's gap close, it would be surprising to see spx above 1292
but with a light volume week everything seems possible
#6
nimblebear
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Welcome to the Dark Side !
Posted 27 August 2008 - 05:54 AM
big move IS coming. for sure. my toilet is not prepared for this. i assure you.
there is two ways to interpret that...
1) you think its going down the toilet ( which i assume you mean)
2) you are so leveraged that if it goes the opposite way..well lets just so getting to the toilet will be a feat
1. Yep.
2. Possibly. Skid marks would be evident and my toilet is scared "sh8tless" right now.
OTIS.
