Close To A Swing Trade

Back in mid-July when I was virtually yelling "buy signal", everything I looked at was on a positive cross. All indicators green. Not so now. Most of my daily stuff is still on a weak sell signal off the QQQQ 8/15 high. So why in the world would I be looking for a swing trade higher? Mainly because this selloff from 8/15 has been so weak internally. There's no gusto here to trade lower. Granted there hasn't been much gusto for the trade higher either. So what I've been looking for is the set-up. If a market truly does tip it's hand prior to or early into a move, is there a recognizable set-up on the charts? Right or wrong, I still believe the "handle" of the "cup with handle" holds the keys to the kingdom. This pattern resolves bullishly a BIG percentage of the time on individual stocks. I haven't seen much history on "c with h" on indices, so this could be an historic tell if it happens. (many charts, annotated)

U.F.O.

First, the QQQQ chart showing two important breakout points. #1, the downtrend line off the 8/15 high. This is where I get at least 50% long on a close above, 100% long on a topline breakout, #2.


Next, market breadth. DE/AD Q's and Binary Waves on a green arrow higher.


Daily charts that are on a buy are rare, money flow is one.


Moving forward, the next two charts are Inertia, my favorite strength (and direction) of trend chart. First daily, then weekly.




Lastly, MACD weekly. The dailies are still negative, weeklies not and close to the "0" line.

couldnt agree more..as long as 1880 holds the trend is up!!!

I forgot to post R-Squared. Something is afoot. We'll find out what soon. (1 chart)

U.F.O.

We're gonna find out pretty quick ic. I'm flat right now and itching to swing long or short, doesn't matter. I just think we're 60/40 going to see a push higher here. Best.

Edited by U.F.O., 27 August 2008 - 09:32 PM.

Thanks for taking the time to post your work UFO. Great stuff! I think that if we take out 1293 SPX on the up side we could go to 1327. If we take out 1261 on the down side we could go a lot lower.

Edited by Warren, 27 August 2008 - 09:52 PM.

q4

http://www.americanb...p...=NASD&TYP=S

I agree Warren. I'm trying to remain flexible enough to go either direction. Best. U.F.O.

I think the market could move up till fri,,,? tue am ? watch the vix, it is in a down trend ,and the $,,not to brake down..you have to look at the QID or the QLD,,,stops are good,,,am pm stuff ?? lov

Let's see what these numbers in 5 min do to it. U.F.O.

hmmm....QQQQ stalling now at 47.03 to 47.09 area.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NDX...id=p69585584803

Edited by hiker, 28 August 2008 - 07:50 AM.

9 of 10 top NDX holdings are now green - Symbol Last Trade Change Related Info AAPL 10:13AM ET 175.93 Up 1.26 Up 0.72% Chart, Message, Profile, more... CMCSA 10:13AM ET 21.55 Up 0.27 Up 1.27% Chart, Message, Profile, more... CSCO 10:13AM ET 24.64 Up 0.27 Up 1.11% Chart, Message, Profile, more... GILD 10:13AM ET 53.16 Down 0.59 Down 1.10% Chart, Message, Profile, more... GOOG 10:13AM ET 474.85 Up 6.27 Up 1.34% Chart, Message, Profile, more... INTC 10:13AM ET 23.58 Up 0.17 Up 0.73% Chart, Message, Profile, more... MSFT 10:13AM ET 27.76 Up 0.20 Up 0.73% Chart, Message, Profile, more... ORCL 10:13AM ET 22.49 Up 0.15 Up 0.67% Chart, Message, Profile, more... QCOM 10:13AM ET 54.17 Up 0.09 Up 0.17% Chart, Message, Profile, more... RIMM 10:13AM ET 128.59 Up 0.37 Up 0.29% Chart, Message, Profile, more...