I continue to believe, fwiw, that the rally on this bailout has already been seen. While we may get pops here and there on the "agreement in principle" and then on the final signing into law of the bailout package, I believe that the trend remains down, and rallies shout be sold. Jmho. D
If You Bought the Rumor
Started by
IYB
, Sep 28 2008 05:27 PM
8 replies to this topic
#1
IYB
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Posted 28 September 2008 - 05:27 PM
“Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” ― Charles Mackay, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds
#2
dcengr
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Posted 28 September 2008 - 05:30 PM
ES 1220 is a tough nut to crack. Shorting there for 'sell the news' seems pretty obvious to me.
If this was normal times, that is.
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?
#3
eVegas
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Posted 28 September 2008 - 05:49 PM
Depends if we break above and hold 1221 or not.
Looking strong so far and I am long from 1211. Currently 1217.
I believe that sell the news comes later monday as opposed to the sunday session.
Cheers.
#4
dcengr
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Posted 28 September 2008 - 05:51 PM
I will sell the news AFTER the bill passes and is signed into law.
Qui custodiet ipsos custodes?
#5
Islander
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Posted 28 September 2008 - 05:53 PM
Dr McHugh, who does not listen to current events, says there is a PhiMate turn date today or tomorrow that reverses the trend, and the equities go to 9750 Dow or lower over the coming few months. My Fib work agrees in general, but I a less sure of which trend will be reversed. I have moved my gold hoard to Canada and I am feeling less concerned. Wrong?
Best Islander
Edited by Islander, 28 September 2008 - 05:55 PM.
#6
thespookyone
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Posted 28 September 2008 - 08:26 PM
IYB-Fully concur. Enjoyed the ride up week before last (that was the rally in my take), and shorted Fridays close. No hard stop yet but probably use a wide one here of about 13 SPX points or so-doubt I'll need it, though. Looking for 1163 or better here very short term-to the downside. Just hoping Bernanke is not fool enough to cut interest rates-in the interest of those who brought this mess about.
The long term results of a rate cut are a HUGE price to pay for a rally that would probably not make a week.
#7
ogm
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Posted 28 September 2008 - 10:03 PM
I've covered 3/4 of my short positions on Friday. Was I wrong or right to do that, I frankly don't care, I was tired.
But .. from this point on, as we start going down , I'll be buying some very select stocks into panic, if we get one.
Edited by ogm, 28 September 2008 - 10:04 PM.
#8
Darris
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Posted 28 September 2008 - 10:21 PM
ogm, if time permits, what groups or issues will you be looking at? Thanks.
#9
ogm
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Posted 29 September 2008 - 05:19 AM
ogm, if time permits, what groups or issues will you be looking at? Thanks.
Main criterias...
Good cash position, very low or no debt
good cash flow
preferably defensive sectors like biotechs/medical device tech, and some technology.
And preferably something under 4 bil market cap range.
Anything with big debt should be avoided, IMO. They will all have troubles rolling the debt over.
Just as an example ... a pair trade idea ... Long THQI, short GME ...
THQI .. 30% of the market cap in cash no debt, plenty new releases, potential takover target.
GME ... crappy game retail store under onslaught from digital game downloads ( the growing form of game distribution)
Long idea... CMTL
Speculative long CYBP .. biotech ahead of FDA approaval next month.
Edited by ogm, 29 September 2008 - 05:27 AM.
