You know things are bad when....

..you have to pull up a 15 year chart just to calculate price targets for the next week or so. ..it just struck me funny...cos' I just had to do that...its surreal really.....the way volatility is going, I might need need a 100year chart for my day-trading targets soon. Next target I have is 750-770spx, with a breakdown out of the congestion zone of 840-900Spx in the next couple of days...then a tradeable swing rally to spx 900 to follow.(on the VST pattern one more spike to 900 is possible by end of tomorrow....but it must occur before a move below 830spx) best, Mark

Edited by entropy, 28 October 2008 - 10:56 AM.

speaking of humor......which one of you guys sent me this eh.....lmao

http://www.cnnbcvide...1884639-bBRrPgx

I think we may be enetering the eye of the storm. One which literally everyone gives up hope. This would be ideal although i see the scope for a bounce.

..you have to pull up a 15 year chart just to calculate price targets for the next week or so. ..it just struck me funny...cos' I just had to do that...its surreal really.....the way volatility is going, I might need need a 100year chart for my day-trading targets soon.

Next target I have is 750-770spx, with a breakdown out of the congestion zone of 840-900Spx in the next couple of days...then a tradeable swing rally to spx 900 to follow.(on the VST pattern one more spike to 900 is possible by end of tomorrow....but it must occur before a move below 830spx)

best,
Mark

Mark, You have to think as a big money manager.(It takes days to deploy the funds)....If you think this market is going down to 750, what will you do?....You will hold the money until she hits 750 then you push all the buy buttons? or You will buy them on the way down?

speaking of humor......which one of you guys sent me this eh.....lmao

http://www.cnnbcvide...1884639-bBRrPgx

'dat is funny chief!

best,
Mark

..you have to pull up a 15 year chart just to calculate price targets for the next week or so. ..it just struck me funny...cos' I just had to do that...its surreal really.....the way volatility is going, I might need need a 100year chart for my day-trading targets soon.

Next target I have is 750-770spx, with a breakdown out of the congestion zone of 840-900Spx in the next couple of days...then a tradeable swing rally to spx 900 to follow.(on the VST pattern one more spike to 900 is possible by end of tomorrow....but it must occur before a move below 830spx)

best,
Mark

Mark, You have to think as a big money manager.(It takes days to deploy the funds)....If you think this market is going down to 750, what will you do?....You will hold the money until she hits 750 then you push all the buy buttons? or You will buy them on the way down?

I maybe a bit slow 'cos I'm not getting your point TraderPaul?

Lets be a clear, a price target isn't a TRADE, its just a trading setup.

A setup like say a 'head& shoulders' or 'triangle' is based on the information available NOW, but new information arrives all the time that
changes things...i.e. the pattern gets busted.

The problem for anyone who 'averages in' to a price target based on whatever method, is what happens if when the market gets to that target and new patterns emerge or your indicators chage and now says its going lower? ..but your already averaged in.

This is one of the most important facts i've learned about trading - Trade off REACTIONS, not off PREDICTIONS.
Targets are predictions, trades I based on a trading model of backtested
indicators where the buy or sell occurs at the time of the event, and cannot be predicted exactly ahead of time.

So what is the point of targets then?
Just an estimation of where I expect buy/sells to occur, nothing more....though I only post ones that agree with my indicators and so I have a high level of confidence.



best,
Makr

My point is everyone is looking at 750 area.....We may not get there.....

Edited by traderpaul, 28 October 2008 - 02:44 PM.

My point is everyone is looking at 750 area.....We may not get there.....

We may not, obviously, it a game of chance.

How are you measuring 'everyone' ? it sure isn't showing up for example on the
position polls here which have been heavily bullish for the entire decline of October...I can't
even remember the last time the daily position poll was skewed bearish.

But you maybe right on not getting to 750 at least short term, especially after todays rally, but
my guess is everyone jumps on this bull train again, and we pull back - but lets wait and see.
... I'll let the market take me of positions and not predict it.

Todays 2 hour 800pts Dow mega ramp with shorts fearing for their lives
ahead of the 'hope mantra' of FED intervention tomorrow looks exactly like the 2 just before expirations.
Add to that, equity put/call was about 0.4 for last hour of trading, TICK showed extreme price chasing.

The sentiment as I read it is basically FEAR of missing THE BOTTOM, hence every time a rally gets going, it
turns parabolic. There is no structure or base building to the rallies, they just come out of nowhere,
far faster than the decline's have been...literally panic buying.


best,
Mark.

Edited by entropy, 28 October 2008 - 03:51 PM.

Honest Mark, i don't use sentiment to trade.....For me, it looks like the triangle was formed and the market broke to the down side was a fake move.....Just to get everyone bearish and stay bearish.....Then she moved to the intended move which is the upside. The bears are quite vocal, not trading the tape, just trading of what they think will happen.....

Honest Mark, i don't use sentiment to trade.....For me, it looks like the triangle was formed and the market broke to the down side was a fake move.....Just to get everyone bearish and stay bearish.....Then she moved to the intended move which is the upside. The bears are quite vocal, not trading the tape, just trading of what they think will happen.....

Yeah I hear you on the vocal bear thing...that is true...it has me 'concerned' , but folks were pretty bullish
last two days in put/call and ISEE, and stops below 840SPX (must be a ton right) were
not touched, instead the shorts get killed.....hmm...seen this movie twice already in October.

Maybe this one is for real, lets see where we are by end of thursday, that will be the tell
as we havent' strung more than 1 up day together for weeks.

BTW - What do you use to trade?

best,
Mark.