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Banking Index and XLF Indicate a Top is Near

Started by inamosa , Jan 07 2009 09:20 PM

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#1 inamosa

inamosa

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Posted 07 January 2009 - 09:20 PM

Banking Index ($BKX)

Check out the dates...if it follows, we should see a top around Jan 20th (late Jan to early Feb, I'd say)
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Financial Sector SPDR (XLF)
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Dow has closed down the last 4 months...closing down a 5th month is likely, so market may close on a high note...which would correspond to the above

I will keep an eye on those trendlines in XLF and $BKX to see if anything breaks down
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#2 inamosa

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Posted 07 January 2009 - 09:32 PM

I meant to say Dow closing down for a 5th month is UNLIKELY More accurate date prediction is around Jan 24th Someone here said Jan 26th is a possible topping date...interesting possible confluence
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#3 Russ

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Posted 07 January 2009 - 09:47 PM

Those charts are breaking down...series of lower highs, I see know way of projecting more highs coming...those support lines can easily be breached. But who knows maybe the bull gods will step in and defy gravity. lol
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#4 inamosa

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Posted 07 January 2009 - 11:41 PM

Those charts are breaking down...series of lower highs, I see know way of projecting more highs coming...those support lines can easily be breached. But who knows maybe the bull gods will step in and defy gravity. lol



Well, yeah, but look at how the tops were reached on September 19th on the charts

Pretty screwy and certainly not straight up


I expect us to go no lower than 850 or at least 815 over the next week or two before making a final rally to S&P 940+ late this month (likely will take us to S&P 1000 or higher near the end of the month, IMO)
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months

#5 Russ

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Posted 08 January 2009 - 12:10 AM

Your last chart is a head and shoulder formation, its going right back down to the bottom perhaps more. Good luck.
"Nulla tenaci invia est via" - Latin for "For the tenacious, no road is impossible".
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong



http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/

#6 inamosa

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Posted 08 January 2009 - 06:33 AM

Your last chart is a head and shoulder formation, its going right back down to the bottom perhaps more. Good luck.


You're right it's a head and shoulders formation and XLF will likely break under the neck line in the next few days if not today.

If XLF doesn't stop rolling down at around $10.50, market should hit new lows as XLF will be headed for lows again.

I will keep an eye on this. XLF and $BKX are the most important indicators of true market direction, IMO, although I also monitor other bellwethers.
"Our job is not to predict where the market will go, but to interpret daily price and volume action to ascertain the facts of the current environment and make decisions based on that interpretation."
-Scott O'Neil (son of William O'Neil), Portfolio Manager at O’Neil Data Systems, when asked where the Dow would go in the coming months
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