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Germany Refuses to Backstop Italy


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#1 Lysis

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Posted 06 August 2011 - 01:09 PM

Looks like Germany is going to draw the line at bailing out Italy, at least according to their media mouthpiece, Spiegel.

Should be a fun all-nighter on Sunday.

http://www.nasdaq.co...-to-savespiegel

Edited by Lysis, 06 August 2011 - 01:12 PM.


#2 fib_1618

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Posted 06 August 2011 - 01:14 PM

Looks like Germany is going to draw the line at bailing out Italy

Does that mean that there won't be any pizza delivery for a while? ;)

Fib

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#3 DrSP

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Posted 06 August 2011 - 01:29 PM

Looks like Germany is going to draw the line at bailing out Italy, at least according to their media mouthpiece, Spiegel.

Should be a fun all-nighter on Sunday.

http://www.nasdaq.co...-to-savespiegel


So, Italy is going to default on Monday?
You could be a billionaire or an industrial worker or a teacher or a moderator of a forum - Hold a good conscience because that is what matters.

#4 Lysis

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Posted 06 August 2011 - 01:30 PM

Looks like Germany is going to draw the line at bailing out Italy

Does that mean that there won't be any pizza delivery for a while? ;)

Fib


Definitely not to Berlin. :D

Looks like Italy may pass a balanced budget amendment to their Constitution, which may delay the calamity. I find it hilarious that even the Italians are on the verge of possibly getting their fiscal house in order and we can't.

http://www.ft.com/cm...144feabdc0.html

Everything is really in flux here. I really don't have a handle on how Monday is going to play out.

Edited by Lysis, 06 August 2011 - 01:32 PM.


#5 fib_1618

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Posted 06 August 2011 - 01:36 PM

I really don't have a handle on how Monday is going to play out.

Technically speaking...it should be hard up to fill the vacuum created by last weeks "downgrade".

Besides, the German's can't live by kraut alone...they must have their pizza, no less, pasta!

Fib

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Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#6 Lysis

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Posted 06 August 2011 - 01:39 PM

Looks like that FT link isn't working. Here's the Reuters one:

http://www.reuters.c...E7741AR20110805

Fib, Germany can survive without pasta. There's always spätzle.

#7 fib_1618

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Posted 06 August 2011 - 02:11 PM

There's always spätzle.

Yea...but you can't make a good Kugel with spätzle. :D

Fib

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#8 kean

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Posted 06 August 2011 - 02:32 PM

I really don't have a handle on how Monday is going to play out.

Technically speaking...it should be hard up to fill the vacuum created by last weeks "downgrade".

Besides, the German's can't live by kraut alone...they must have their pizza, no less, pasta!

Fib



Dave

So you see the credit rating downgrade as already priced in and not to be a factor next week? Please clarify.

Tim

#9 fib_1618

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Posted 06 August 2011 - 02:53 PM

So you see the credit rating downgrade as already priced in and not to be a factor next week? Please clarify.

Well, we know that Washington wasn't sending the correct signals before they magically came up with their shallow "compromise" on Sunday night.

We also know it wasn't a lack of liquidity that caused the equity markets to take a 11% haircut in 10 trading days...with the final acceleration the day before the downgrade.

So now that the news is out, and many breadth and volume oscillators trashed in advance of this news, a good old reflex rally would make the most sense.

Beyond that I would expect a lot of chop and volatility for the next week or two as the dust clears and traders find some sort of parity to then work with moving forward.

Fib

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“Wise men don't need advice. Fools won't take it” - Benjamin Franklin

 

"Beware of false knowledge; it is more dangerous than ignorance" - George Bernard Shaw

 

Demagogue: A leader who makes use of popular prejudices, false claims and promises in order to gain power.

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#10 tradesurfer

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Posted 06 August 2011 - 04:46 PM

all i can say is that if we are going to decline again on Monday this week then it seems to me it has to be a 20% one day decline...


the reason?

we are already at max oversold...

another decline monday would put the price action well into the 'powerzone' under the 30 RSI level which is 1987 crash territory and could open the door to an RSI value of 11.5 which occurred at the low of 1987.

RSI value of 11.5 would put the sp500 at 1050 on monday or tuesday...

it has been a long time since we have had a 1987 style crash, perhaps we are overdue.

what was most unique about the 87 crash unlike all other market drops was that prices went down fast with amazing speed, but then also STAYED DOWN.

I guess I would be shocked if we do a repeat like 87, but so many traders right now do not seem to be looking for it to happen... mostly talk of bounces...