ES - EUR/USD:

12/21/11 7:49EST EUR/USD: It’s highly likely we’ve put in a TOP at 13196; the Major (minor) time cycle is 1971 to 1986 hours. The last 3 out 4 turns occurred exactly at 1971 hours (82 days). The high we just put in at 5:24EST at 13196 occurred on the 1971st hour. This time cycle’s pattern down target is 11742; although we will have one major pit stop on the way. At 12328/12343 My understanding is that the ECB has no intention of intervening in the Euro until below 12000; in fact the opposite; they believe a cheap Euro (Exports) improves the economy. Early this morning the ECB announced the LTRO (longer-term refinancing operation is open to 523 European banks; The LTRO fund is 489 Billion Euros (LTRO); the funds are borrowed in accordance to benchmark interest rate at 1%. Key notes: 1) 193 Billion Euros is fresh liquidity of which 60% to 70% is unsecured; although exact details are currently contradicting due to the IMF. 2) 296 Billion Euros is based on sovereign and bank bonds mature in the first quarter of 2012; In addition 89 Billion of the 296 Billion is strictly based on Greek and Italian Bonds; or in excess of 60% is based on Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greek Bonds. In other words 600 billion euros of bank and sovereign bonds mature in 2012; 35% to 43% of this paper requires refinancing in order to postpone a major default; 77% of the 600 billion is unsecured. The reason for this recent reckless debt occurrence is that the IMF failed to secure fresh funding, in order to fund the ECB; in order words majority of this new round of printing is unsecured. In addition one of the main purposes of LTRO (IMO the primary) is to borrow cheap and buy sovereign bonds; lower the SDS and the currency swaps. ESH11: Currently in an up extension (1254.50) taking out 1225.00 cancels the up extension. IMO we fail to reach the up extension and in light of the potential Top on the Euro; we put in a Top at 1249.00; the immediate move is down to 1229/1230; Later today I’m expecting to reach 1221/1222

Edited by Master Che, 21 December 2011 - 07:51 AM.

12/21/11
7:49EST
EUR/USD:
It’s highly likely we’ve put in a TOP at 13196; the Major (minor) time cycle is 1971 to 1986 hours. The last 3 out 4 turns occurred exactly at 1971 hours (82 days). The high we just put in at 5:24EST at 13196 occurred on the 1971st hour.
This time cycle’s pattern down target is 11742; although we will have one major pit stop on the way. At 12328/12343
My understanding is that the ECB has no intention of intervening in the Euro until below 12000; in fact the opposite; they believe a cheap Euro (Exports) improves the economy.

Early this morning the ECB announced the LTRO (longer-term refinancing operation is open to 523 European banks; The LTRO fund is 489 Billion Euros (LTRO); the funds are borrowed in accordance to benchmark interest rate at 1%.
Key notes:
1) 193 Billion Euros is fresh liquidity of which 60% to 70% is unsecured; although exact details are currently contradicting due to the IMF.
2) 296 Billion Euros is based on sovereign and bank bonds mature in the first quarter of 2012; In addition 89 Billion of the 296 Billion is strictly based on Greek and Italian Bonds; or in excess of 60% is based on Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Greek Bonds.
In other words 600 billion euros of bank and sovereign bonds mature in 2012; 35% to 43% of this paper requires refinancing in order to postpone a major default; 77% of the 600 billion is unsecured.
The reason for this recent reckless debt occurrence is that the IMF failed to secure fresh funding, in order to fund the ECB; in order words majority of this new round of printing is unsecured. In addition one of the main purposes of LTRO (IMO the primary) is to borrow cheap and buy sovereign bonds; lower the SDS and the currency swaps.

ESH11:
Currently in an up extension (1254.50) taking out 1225.00 cancels the up extension.
IMO we fail to reach the up extension and in light of the potential Top on the Euro; we put in a Top at 1249.00; the immediate move is down to 1229/1230; Later today I’m expecting to reach 1221/1222

Sure looked like one on Euro.

ditto on es futures. Not sure in cash if it tags 1245 or not.

es has to take out 1238.50 before 1232 right now or the probability moves to 80% top is in futures.

es has to take out 1238.50 before 1232 right now or the probability moves to 80% top is in futures.

closed all the grains longs..live cattle..
still short
cotton (dec/12)
bean oil
feeder cattle
coffee
reviewing
short OJ

now a trade under 1230 spx and back to pork barbecue.

es has to take out 1238.50 before 1232 right now or the probability moves to 80% top is in futures.

closed all the grains longs..live cattle..
still short
cotton (dec/12)
bean oil
feeder cattle
coffee
reviewing
short OJ

yep

I like next low as we discussed for a better pop than this one.

Here is what the opening mo looks like:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYUPV:$NYDNV&p=60&yr=0&mn=0&dy=10&i=p63634255098&a=222523310&r=6879.png

Futures suggest that the morning monkeys have figured it out.

now a trade under 1230 spx and back to pork barbecue.

still a little early on the SPX or ES to confirm..

also I'm still short the EUR/USD
originally 14901 then added twice at 14545 and at 14237
I wanted to add again recently (138/139) but it never reached it

Short
AUD/USD
from 10970 added at 10719 and again earlier this morning at 10191

BAC: (Bank of America) Down to 4.19/4.22 Expect a bounce/reversal at 4.19/4.22 The bounce should be up to 5.91/5.92 Failing to do so means back down to 2.79/2.83 Trading above 5.91/5.92 then up to 9.73 Floating Rumors of MEGA BUY orders 4.05 to 4.20

Edited by Master Che, 21 December 2011 - 08:50 AM.