The best times to make money is...

when there's uncertainity in the markets - be it technical or fundamental ! Case in point - the pullbacks. The entire world turns bearish. Newsletter writers get aligned with the short term trend and get carried away or cater to the popular demand. The trend turns - price pivots get broken, moving average configurations turn up. But most don't turn their stance in line with what the price is saying. There are thousands of garbage indicators invented by academics, mathematicians, newsletter pundits, market gurus, Technical analysts which are at odds at what the price is saying. Back in my old days, when faced with uncertainty i used go to cash or open the newsletters to see what those geniuses were thinking, only to find the caveat ridden if-but-then kind of analysis. It would only reinforce my opinion of staying in cash and would feel warm and comfortable. Big big mistake. It took me a while to realize that's when you go for the jugular. If the price is boldly saying it's up and the entire planet is confused and there's technical/fundamental uncertainty, that's when the best money is made. Be it the Fed meeting, the Syrian war or Lehman crises. S&P gave a positional buy at 1644-50 area which i posted in one of diogensess' thread. How did the trend looked then ? How many felt it would make ATH at that point ? Ho many cheerleaders did we have then ? How many had the balls to project big targets ? The move started without much fanfare with few on board and the skeptics shorting it. After a 90-100 point move, now things are more clear, certain, trend looks fine and dandy, risk is minimal as all the moving averages are comfortably pointed up and technical targets of SPX 1800 and 2000 are back in play. This movie plays over and over again. BTW, SPX is still on that buy signal from 1650. I will update if it turns. The only asset which i trade and i am bearish at this point is GOLD.

daily is on buy as of now, however things can start to look dirty pretty quickly..so i do not stretch trend to any target..i learnt the hard way.. but i know you like to trade the immediate trend...

Be it the Fed meeting, the Syrian war or Lehman crises. S&P gave a positional buy at 1644-50 area which i posted in one of diogensess' thread. How did the trend looked then ? How many felt it would make ATH at that point ? Ho many cheerleaders did we have then ? How many had the balls to project big targets ?

I am on record here:

SPX closed at 1632.97 on Friday 08/30.

Sep 2 2013, 11:18 AM

All the major indices are THREE GAP PLAY setups.

For the SPX you have 1656, 1685, 1707

How did the trend look then?

(August 20)

Jingle Bells for Volume in Market ..., Look at it as a Santa Claus Rally Today

There were plenty of days around the Christmas Holidays with stronger volume than we have here today...

Just hard to take any of this very seriously...

But, if all you watch is price, you will see it whipped around on light volume and that's what we have.

And of course the light volume creates all kind of divergences and indicator extremes.

As if we hadn't seen enough of it.

Edited by SemiBizz, 21 September 2013 - 12:16 PM.

daily is on buy as of now, however things can start to look dirty pretty quickly..so i do not stretch trend to any target..i learnt the hard way..
but i know you like to trade the immediate trend...

andiron,

I do not stretch trends. I do not extrapolate trend. I don't really worry about what tomorrow brings. If the trend turns tomorrow, so will i. One has to get past the psychological fear of trend turning without giving a chance to enter or exit, to really become a trend trader. No crash or even a mini crash has ever happened before a hourly trend turning down. I am talking about the indices. Stocks are another story. I got massacred in March 2000 when the internet stocks gapped down 100-200 points with the hourly trend still solidly up. That is one of the reason i never touch individual stocks. It's only indices, currencies and commodities for me. Very safe instruments, with minimal event risks.

It's only indices, currencies and commodities for me. Very safe instruments, with minimal event risks.

what about bonds...fixed income trading still guarded big time by the wall street but it is getting better...there are tons of liquid etfs out there too..

It's only indices, currencies and commodities for me. Very safe instruments, with minimal event risks.

what about bonds...fixed income trading still guarded big time by the wall street but it is getting better...there are tons of liquid etfs out there too..

Bonds are good too. It's just that i don't trade them.

when there's uncertainity in the markets - be it technical or fundamental !

Case in point - the pullbacks. The entire world turns bearish. Newsletter writers get aligned with the short term trend and get carried away or cater to the popular demand. The trend turns - price pivots get broken, moving average configurations turn up. But most don't turn their stance in line with what the price is saying. There are thousands of garbage indicators invented by academics, mathematicians, newsletter pundits, market gurus, Technical analysts which are at odds at what the price is saying. Back in my old days, when faced with uncertainty i used go to cash or open the newsletters to see what those geniuses were thinking, only to find the caveat ridden if-but-then kind of analysis. It would only reinforce my opinion of staying in cash and would feel warm and comfortable. Big big mistake. It took me a while to realize that's when you go for the jugular. If the price is boldly saying it's up and the entire planet is confused and there's technical/fundamental uncertainty, that's when the best money is made. Be it the Fed meeting, the Syrian war or Lehman crises. S&P gave a positional buy at 1644-50 area which i posted in one of diogensess' thread. How did the trend looked then ? How many felt it would make ATH at that point ? Ho many cheerleaders did we have then ? How many had the balls to project big targets ? The move started without much fanfare with few on board and the skeptics shorting it. After a 90-100 point move, now things are more clear, certain, trend looks fine and dandy, risk is minimal as all the moving averages are comfortably pointed up and technical targets of SPX 1800 and 2000 are back in play. This movie plays over and over again.

BTW, SPX is still on that buy signal from 1650. I will update if it turns. The only asset which i trade and i am bearish at this point is GOLD.

NAV, a great post from a highly regarded trader. I agree with 99% of it, but must take issue with your call - I believe I was the ONLY one who called for that low and almost 100 point move up from the August lows. IN ADDITION most were saying September would be DOWN< yet fluid came to the rescue again and se the record straight and informed the crowd that actually September is up 50/50 in august is down, AND I posted a relevant link when asked for evidence.

So, I believe I was the ONLY one who called it. Believe me the amount of hatred messages I received deeply saddened me because all I was trying to do was help these people and all they wanted to do was insult me. Im over that period now, thankfully and was pleased to make a profit from it.

Believe me the amount of hatred messages I received deeply saddened me because all I was trying to do was help these people ...

Fluid,

I did not send any hate mail to you, so I hope you will listen to what I have to say. When you make a bullish or bearish call, one simple post spelling out your stance and the reasons for it is enough. Do not pound us with incessant posts repeating the same opinion over and over. That is why you get hate mail, and so many ignore you. If you truly want to "help these people", then one quality post will do so much more than 20 posts with the same repetitive message.

KMB

when there's uncertainity in the markets - be it technical or fundamental !

Case in point - the pullbacks. The entire world turns bearish. Newsletter writers get aligned with the short term trend and get carried away or cater to the popular demand. The trend turns - price pivots get broken, moving average configurations turn up. But most don't turn their stance in line with what the price is saying. There are thousands of garbage indicators invented by academics, mathematicians, newsletter pundits, market gurus, Technical analysts which are at odds at what the price is saying. Back in my old days, when faced with uncertainty i used go to cash or open the newsletters to see what those geniuses were thinking, only to find the caveat ridden if-but-then kind of analysis. It would only reinforce my opinion of staying in cash and would feel warm and comfortable. Big big mistake. It took me a while to realize that's when you go for the jugular. If the price is boldly saying it's up and the entire planet is confused and there's technical/fundamental uncertainty, that's when the best money is made. Be it the Fed meeting, the Syrian war or Lehman crises. S&P gave a positional buy at 1644-50 area which i posted in one of diogensess' thread. How did the trend looked then ? How many felt it would make ATH at that point ? Ho many cheerleaders did we have then ? How many had the balls to project big targets ? The move started without much fanfare with few on board and the skeptics shorting it. After a 90-100 point move, now things are more clear, certain, trend looks fine and dandy, risk is minimal as all the moving averages are comfortably pointed up and technical targets of SPX 1800 and 2000 are back in play. This movie plays over and over again.

BTW, SPX is still on that buy signal from 1650. I will update if it turns. The only asset which i trade and i am bearish at this point is GOLD.

S&P gave a positional buy at 1644-50 area which i posted in one of diogensess' thread.

THAT THREAD

Yes, the movie plays over and over again.

Best to you.

A couple things here... I agree 100% that confusion or will cause the highest payouts that is why we see MACD kisses give extreme moves... The one thing that I believe a lot of traders might not see is that market can do anything at any time... Nothing is impossible... Even if the NYSI was up around 1000 and the market was trending higher we could open down 20% over any given weekend... I firmly believe there is truly no guarantees no matter what the trend is...