QUE PASO?

200-point plunge in 3 days (Fri. - Tue.), and we're back to 1988 as though this week never happened.

But something did happen. I'm still mostly night-trading and day-trading and still mostly buying the dips. However, unless the SPX puts on another 60-80 points of rally to close out the month, I'll be watching 2000 & 2030 levels for possible short entries.

SPX 2000 is the 50-yard line between 5/20/15 high and 8/24/15 low as well as the intraday high and low of Friday, 8/21/15.

So the next play on Monday, 8/31/15, it's 2nd and 7, from Friday high 1993 to 2000. And, if it's 3rd and 7 on Tuesday, then CRUISENAL's setup is complete. They'll have to punt on 4th down. And, watch out for the punt return. Of course, a new first down would move the line of scrimmage.




Pardon my self-indulgence, but it's the weekend. Alright?

Edited by TechMan, 29 August 2015 - 01:26 PM.

My issue now is that this was too steep a sell off. This has caused the signal to happen but in a different way. What I expected was a monthly close near the monthly 10 SMA. But it will likely be 75-80 points below where it should be and actually should not signal until Sept. 30th. So this is either out of character or this sell off will be like 2011, which I now think to be correct. I am not saying the signal is not happening, it is, but just differently. Now we will want to Short any rally, like now, but time it on short term charts, under the daily like 60 min or less. My guess is we are up slightly Monday and Tuesday starts up but reverses. I'll put this happening in a window of a few days. I think 1867 holds short term but by the end of Sept. we should break below 1867. My thinking is 1800 but then start a rally to new highs. The only caveat is that we keep going lower way below 1800. Nobody knows so we trade based on what transpires in the weeks and months ahead!

I couldn't find the Nasdaq monthly chart that I had posted before and the comment about how the wedge's running out of space. If the market's a living, breathing organism, it was probably having multiple claustrophobic attacks.

Now that the cat's out of the bag, this is the long-term perspective that I've been monitoring and posting.

Yes I have been using a similar chart for over a year, however, that bottom rising trend line may end up being wider like a parallel channel than a LT rising wedge. I have seen LT and ST channels change and still act as support for one more run higher. It for me is easy to see, that there is a Low in 2009, then a high in 2011 and a low in 2011 a few months later, the a long 4 year stretch with NO pullback like 2011. This suggests that a 2015 low could end this decline and we have one more move up. I don't know for sure that this happens, but it is possible. If we see more of a sell off here and tests lower than 1800, but bounce to a lower high and roll over, then the likelihood is we are in a real Bear. The Key will be a bounce to either the 13 or 20 MA's and fail. This will take 3-4 months. According to what I look at on the monthly charts, we are likely going much lower, but there will be re tests of resistance. So for me, as long as Monday is not some crazy 80 point SPX wonder day, most of my trading will be dominated by SDS.

Edited by CRUISENAL, 29 August 2015 - 04:19 PM.

Yeah, Alan, just because it's broken out of the wedge, doesn't mean it can't pull back for a couple of months. This is all just weekend fun of guessing anyway, but it's likely to take another shot lower before Thanksgiving-Christmas rally into the New Year. We'll see. For sure, plenty of trading opportunities to make money for both buyers and sellers in the next few months.

Totally agree. Hold longs short term, hold Shorts longer term.

I'm not holding anything. Now that this living breathing organism's out of the multi-year bondage, it could get wild, and conniving at times.

It's ended Friday's session in a bottleneck, looking and waiting. No way I'm holding any position over the weekend.

I didn't either. Just trade accordingly and know the bias is down.

I'm not holding anything. Now that this living breathing organism's out of the multi-year bondage, it could get wild, and conniving at times.

It's ended Friday's session in a bottleneck, looking and waiting. No way I'm holding any position over the weekend.

Alan, if this is like 2011 there will be no bear market in foreseeable future. The why hold shorts long term?