TRADING

Silencio. Just came back from vacation, and it feels like a ghost town here. Anyway, haven't traded index ETFs for a while. It's time. Short QQQ at approx. 112.98 via SQQQ at 18.82. Stop at 113.55. More detail later. Good luck.

Silencio. Just came back from vacation, and it feels like a ghost town here.

Anyway, haven't traded index ETFs for a while. It's time. Short QQQ at approx. 112.98 via SQQQ at 18.82. Stop at 113.55.

More detail later. Good luck.

I think you are right on with the short.

For me two things have to happen for me to add:

Support is lost on the QQQ's at $112.09

[attachment=23849:QQQ.png]

And my VXN model where price turns green on a daily basis

[attachment=23850:VXN.png]

Short SPX at approx. 2080 with my usual 5-pt stop.

Short SPX at approx. 2080 with my usual 5-pt stop.

Hi Tech,

You always have detailed & nice charts and was wondering if you know the most recent date or dates where the VIX and the market were down at the same time. I noticed it this morning. It might be some intra day adjustments.

thks

You always have detailed & nice charts and was wondering if you know the most recent date or dates where the VIX and the market were down at the same time. I noticed it this morning. It might be some intra day adjustments.

The convergence of the SPX and the VIX (up or down together) is rare, but it does happen. Posters here have pointed that out all the time. I've found it inconsequential. I don't use derivative of the derivative for trading decisions, and I'm not sure why anyone else would. Just keep it simple and follow the direct price action of the market.

In any case, here are 5 of the most recent occurrences.

9/17/15
9/23/15
10/26/15
11/5/15
11/6/15

Had the SPX closed down again, I would've exited.

You always have detailed & nice charts and was wondering if you know the most recent date or dates where the VIX and the market were down at the same time. I noticed it this morning. It might be some intra day adjustments.

The convergence of the SPX and the VIX (up or down together) is rare, but it does happen. Posters here have pointed that out all the time. I've found it inconsequential. I don't use derivative of the derivative for trading decisions, and I'm not sure why anyone else would. Just keep it simple and follow the direct price action of the market.

In any case, here are 5 of the most recent occurrences.

9/17/15
9/23/15
10/26/15
11/5/15
11/6/15

Remember the 6-month 2050 - 2120 range from 2/3/2015 to 8/19/2015, during which time the SPX had traded within the range more than 70% of the time? It had traders pre-conditioned for so long that when the Flash Crash II came, few, if any, had seen it coming. Everyone, including yours truly, had either exited short or gone long too early.

Well, the SPX has just returned to that same range. Don't get caught snoozing again this time.

Edited by TechMan, 10 November 2015 - 05:30 PM.

You always have detailed & nice charts and was wondering if you know the most recent date or dates where the VIX and the market were down at the same time. I noticed it this morning. It might be some intra day adjustments.

The convergence of the SPX and the VIX (up or down together) is rare, but it does happen. Posters here have pointed that out all the time. I've found it inconsequential. I don't use derivative of the derivative for trading decisions, and I'm not sure why anyone else would. Just keep it simple and follow the direct price action of the market.

In any case, here are 5 of the most recent occurrences.

9/17/15
9/23/15
10/26/15
11/5/15
11/6/15

Thanks Tech.

I was interested if there was any pattern when this does occur. And just a quick glance the day after each one you posted the VIX opened higher the next day. Except for 11/5 the VIX gapped higher the next day. Of course I am not trading off of it but maybe someone else has something more to it.

Yes, making trading decisions using the derivative of a derivative, I assume you mean VXX instead of VIX and SPY instead of SPX, etc. would be unusual. At first I was using the index but I found that using SPY, QQQ, IWM, XLF etc. instead of the index when back testing gave me a higher success rate. As well using VXX instead of VIX kept me in the trade longer and got me out earlier just as an example. I think it is because how each one reacts to the indicators I use within my model. What I do know is it works for me.

Thanks again for the info. I would be interested if the VIX opens higher or gaps up higher tomorrow based on what it has done after these anomalies in the past.

kinga200 - Options are derivatives, but index and sector ETFs, (e.g. QQQ, XLF, SPY) are not. And, by all means, if you had a winning system, stay with it. No one knows how you trade the market better than you do. Good luck. Speaking of LUCK, sometimes I believe the only reason our trading systems work is just pure luck. But that's a totally different issue.

Edited by TechMan, 10 November 2015 - 05:57 PM.