Of interest
Started by
eminimee
, May 20 2007 08:38 AM
7 replies to this topic
#1
Posted 20 May 2007 - 08:38 AM
Using the 34ema on Nasdaq:NYSE total volume, and the 34ema on both TRIN and TRINQ.
All showing we are near or at a top and maybe a top of significance....that's not a proper fork I've drawn on price....I used the slope of the TL up off the March 03 lows and drawn parallels....If that nas:nyse ratio breaks to the upside....it may signify a blow off stage.
Click Here to see Full Sized Image
All showing we are near or at a top and maybe a top of significance....that's not a proper fork I've drawn on price....I used the slope of the TL up off the March 03 lows and drawn parallels....If that nas:nyse ratio breaks to the upside....it may signify a blow off stage.
Click Here to see Full Sized Image
#2
Posted 20 May 2007 - 10:14 AM
Being mostly a daytrader, I use trin and tick during the day to help time my entries with pretty fair success-a nice tool. I noticed more moments of fairly high negative tick on the move up Friday than I have seen in a LONG time-my simple take was that the rally was being sold into, time will tell. Love the chart, as usual, and think you have a good take here. Your Q chart is one of the major reasons I am only partially long Q puts here. I know the other day, you felt the Q's had made a bottom, and were headed for the 47.40 to 47.50 area, which I also feel is still a possibility-hence my retisense to pull the trigger hard. But, I think you are more convinced than I of the surety of that count and move. I have a 1/5th Q put position, because, at this point, I feel it is just as likely that the "D" count,with "D" allready in plays out-and I fear that if the "D" count were to play out, the drop will be fast and furious, leaving me a less opportune selection of entry point. If we break out up, I feel confident that the 47.40-to 47.50 area contains an optimum entry point for me-so I favor ($$) that scenario-but don't really believe it-as the Q's seem quite reluctant to seek new highs-and, so far, their top was in TWO WEEKS ago. Thanks for your great chart work, and for sharing it here. I think the pool of TA available here benefits us all, and that in the future can develope into something incredibly usefull for our trading. If we move away from thinking that all of our particular techniques are incredibly proprietary, (using the assumption that others will never figuire the same takes out-which I think is a huge "AS IF") I feel the TA interplay here will take us places none of us could get to alone.
For myself, trading the RST patterns roughly two years ago taught me invaluable lessons. Although the pattern is rare, it is quite predictable in terms of both the directions it takes, and the amount of whipsaw it contains. And, for what it's worth, the most important thing I learned is that when "D" is in, it is HIGHLY likely that we go to "E" in the lower right hand corner of the triangle-which will represent MUCH more of a drop for correction than most here are prepared for. On the flip side, should the bottom hold and we go back to the top of the triangle and break out of it, adding the width of the triangle to the breakout of the top of it-should provide a true "shock and awe" move to the upside, as well.
Spooky
#3
Posted 20 May 2007 - 04:28 PM
If more cruelty remains to be administered to the bears, it's been prepared in the form of price leading volume, as has transpired from the previous volume peaks seen on this chart. The typical time frame relative to the parallel diagonals suggests another 5-6 weeks of bear hunting (there's no diagonal shown for the current period). But the current price divergence with volume, at these particular price and volume boundaries, may perhaps add a new twist to an old routine.
So was that a blowoff in one time frame or another, or second stage rockets kicking in? I can only give an opinion of, and not the final decision for, the markets. And that's really too bad.
So was that a blowoff in one time frame or another, or second stage rockets kicking in? I can only give an opinion of, and not the final decision for, the markets. And that's really too bad.
Edited by spielchekr, 20 May 2007 - 04:29 PM.
#4
Posted 20 May 2007 - 05:08 PM
Spooky...I'm not totally sold on the Q's making that high...in fact...that namo chart I posted argues that the high is in on the Q's.
#5
Posted 20 May 2007 - 05:54 PM
Spooky...I'm not totally sold on the Q's making that high...in fact...that namo chart I posted argues that the high is in on the Q's.
Thanks, Teaparty. I'm not sold on new highs either, just being prudent ( probably overly so) in taking positions. Pattern wise, to look for new highs, you almost have to consider the last move as a bull flag,consolodation thing-but, for me, a two week bull flag doesn't work. Three or four days would have had me considering new highs much more seriously. Rounding top seems a much more sensible take here, to me, with the highs two weeks in the rear view mirror. The 34MA you point out should be quite a magnet, in my experience, and it's nice to see I'm not alone in my depth perception of the possible (PROBABLE, imho) downage. Please keep your charts coming, they are detailed, great, and a valuable addition to the board.
Spooky
#6
Posted 20 May 2007 - 07:19 PM
Anyone not reading this thread is missing out on some gems ...even if I do say so myself.
This is very cool......
I've posted it before explaining how that rising tops TL back in the early eighty's ended up bottoming both the Oct.02 & Mar.03 bottoms. Now I think the old rising bottom TL (which now makes the top of a channel) is going to play a big role here.
Click Here to see Full Sized Image
This is very cool......
I've posted it before explaining how that rising tops TL back in the early eighty's ended up bottoming both the Oct.02 & Mar.03 bottoms. Now I think the old rising bottom TL (which now makes the top of a channel) is going to play a big role here.
Click Here to see Full Sized Image
Edited by Teaparty, 20 May 2007 - 07:20 PM.
#7
Posted 20 May 2007 - 09:11 PM
Nice chart, and-the divergence on that MACD-isn't "too fresh" lol.
#8
Posted 21 May 2007 - 05:37 AM
top of the channel this month is SPX 1534 fwiw....and coincidentally...that's a target I have derived differently. Maybe coincidence...