33 replies to this topic

[danzman]

Looking at the big contract, my work says we're not even close to an IT bottom yet. A lot of dumb money treating this is as a great buying opportunity. November lows are likely going to get broken. That's the easiest way for weak hands to become big sellers. D

[U.F.O.]

Could you show us some of the COT stuff that leads you to this conclusion. U.F.O.

[danzman]

Could you show us some of the COT stuff that leads you to this conclusion.

U.F.O.

I'll just say what I've been saying. The non-reportables are wrong
way traders.

D

[U.F.O.]

Is this it?

http://www.cftc.gov/...btlof011309.htm

I'm getting the long/short numbers on "non-reportable" almost exactly even.

Now I get it. You're looking at S&P numbers on the MERC.

http://www.cftc.gov/...melof011309.htm

You do know those numbers are over a week old?

U.F.O.

Edited by U.F.O., 24 January 2009 - 05:15 PM.

[U.F.O.]

Now I'm finally on the right date for last week. Sorry for my spastic (re)learning curve on the previous post. I stopped following COT a few years ago as I started doubting it's predictive power. Even now if you count the e-mini's and the other equity data (NDX etc.) it's looks like the so-called dumb money here is net short on balance...a lot. Am I reading this wrong?

http://www.cftc.gov/...s/deacmesof.htm

U.F.O.

Edited by U.F.O., 24 January 2009 - 09:37 PM.

[inamosa]

danzman knows what he's talking about That's all I'll say for now

[U.F.O.]

Not saying he doesn't. But, when someone asks for further info after a leading topic something like "My work says the market crashes" and all they get is a cryptic response, we have to try our feeble best to reverse engineer what this great, secretive, prognostication tool is. That's all I'm trying do. You want to help me alysomji, or has he kept you in the dark too? U.F.O.

[U.F.O.]

[inamosa]

http://lcmarket.blog...s-01132009.html

[danzman]

Now I'm finally on the right date for last week. Sorry for my spastic (re)learning curve on the previous post. I stopped following COT a few years ago as I started doubting it's predictive power. Even now if you count the e-mini's and the other equity data (NDX etc.) it's looks like the so-called dumb money here is net short on balance...a lot. Am I reading this wrong?

http://www.cftc.gov/...s/deacmesof.htm

U.F.O.

Now I didn't say anything about emini...just the big contract and non-reportable.
That's all I need...just have to look at it a certain way. It took me a long time
to figure this out. I'm pointing you in a great direction for IT timing...you just
have to figure out the puzzle. This is a 100% automatic strategy with one
input and a couple rules. Very simple as any systematic approach should be.
It's stood the test of time very well.

After doing my recent studies on option and futures expiration and how my
indicator is linked to them, I am certain that the S&P 500 futures is the tail
that wags the dog.

D