2 replies to this topic

[mss]

I have updated the SCH trend charts posted here and at Hikers Habitat, The time frame has also been changed to 5 & 55ema to make it somewhat more useful to shorter term traders. The charts are produced on STOCK CHARTS this time and should give the same general "view" of tend change/direction.

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p49914629093&a=161769885&r=703.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$COMPQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p49914629093&a=161770516&r=1736.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p49914629093&a=161769952&r=7157.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$RUT&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p49914629093&a=161770545&r=4300.png

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$VLE&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&i=p49914629093&a=161770486&r=1139.png

These will also be posted at Technical Watch and other places.
The calculation for "SCH" is as follows:

SCH = 25 day ROC (rate of change) of SPX (or any index) smoothed by 5, 8, or 13ema. For very long term 55, 89, 144ema

There are many ways to use it, 8 & 13 crossover, crossover of 50-day ma & or 200-day ma, etc.

25-day ROC is half of the 50-day & 1/4 of the 200-day

Comments always welcome,
mss

[SilentOne]

hi scott, I don't like the fact that those 55 day emas are all pointing down again. Most are saying (from an EW perspective) that we are seeing a 5th wave decline now (larger 4th wave completed). I'm patiently waiting and buying some small positions here. Once this leg down is complete, the rally out of it should be quite impressive if an 18 month low is at hand. So I am gearing up to take on some considerable risk soon if we can get a good tradeable low. This rally that should come, once this leg down is complete, will likely be the best bear rally we will see until late 2010 or 2011. The unknown will be the strength and duration, but once it tops out, it will be a clear sell. So I am watching closely for plays in Canadian financials, and particularly energy. We are positioned in some Canadian telcos, Cdn bank preferreds, cash and GICs. I have a fairly low risk way of playing the Cdn banks which I am accumulating. Energy plays in my mind will be through oil ETFs, quality income trusts (eg. AET.UN-T or the index XRT-T) and the odd energy name. But the GM and oil are symbiotic at this point. So I can't get excited until I think oil has clearly bottomed. The best chance for that on a ST basis will be late next week to March 6th. And we should have some kind of confirmation by March 6th. I am starting to get more and more comments from friends and relatives re: the markets. It's a sign that a real panic in the investing public is approaching and one has to hope that that will cement a decent IT bottom. Otherwise, its business as usual until then. Thanks for posting your stuff. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 21 February 2009 - 12:13 PM.

[jack]

MSS Thanks for "SCH" I find standard roc12 diverg very useful hr and day, even 5min SCH is a new take for me,thx Jack