23 replies to this topic

[dcengr]

Looks like a text book a-b-c formation just completed, 25% retrace from da top. But I think after the wave 5, we will get a decent rally.. perhaps even a mini bull. I would put this as wave 4 of the primary decline which started from the top of Nov 07. Based on what it looks like, wave 5 may end at NDX 800. FWIW, blah blah blah.

[Leviathan]

not sure how you have this coming move pegged as a 5 down, but, of note:

ES made a higher intraday high this morning, and a lower high this afternoon when SPX made its high of the day. Neither SPX nor SPY (ditto for dow) could test yesterday's high. Volume was flimsy although not outright pitiful.

Gold broke down. Do they finally think this baby bull has enough momentum that they shut off the presses?





the high beta ccy's aren't playing along either...



financial shares were getting picked up like hotcakes but CDS spreads moved nigh a nudge, and there is a punishing amount of overhead resistance on BKX and XBD, and some are just insolvent little POSs...

[Leviathan]

FWIW I think 760... RIMM, AMZN, PCLN, QCOM and INTU should lead it down...

[dcengr]

I'm not sure if it will be a large degree wave 5. But my count shows it as 5 because this looong wave 4 that just ended in a 'c' up. The 'c' is a perfect 5 wave up as many can tell. The question being is this wave 1 of a new bull, assuming we get a correction, or wave 5 down to finish the bear? Then the question is if the move up has even terminated yet because this 5 wave move may not be completed? So thats why I said in the previous post that EW only works AFTER the fact. All you can do is take a guess, plop some cash down, put a reasonable stop, and let it ride. If it ain't, it ain't, if it is, great. I generally associate wave 4s of a primary decline with government intervention, and we had plenty of that coming out. I take a lot of my hints from the bond market, especially junk. Last count I have of junk bonds, we were in wave B. I don't think I've seen the conclusion to the 'c' yet there either. So it sort of fits.

[arbman]

This was the bottom, that's it! The deflation is over.

yep!

[Leviathan]

did cramer make this comment today?

[dcengr]

did cramer make this comment today?

Says April 2nd in the video.

But cramer is a hack.

It really doesn't matter if he says it bottomed or not, since he's completely incompetent and the choices are only 'yes' or 'no'. He's got 50% chance of being right

[Leviathan]

I'm not sure if it will be a large degree wave 5. But my count shows it as 5 because this looong wave 4 that just ended in a 'c' up. The 'c' is a perfect 5 wave up as many can tell.

The question being is this wave 1 of a new bull, assuming we get a correction, or wave 5 down to finish the bear?

Then the question is if the move up has even terminated yet because this 5 wave move may not be completed?

So thats why I said in the previous post that EW only works AFTER the fact.

All you can do is take a guess, plop some cash down, put a reasonable stop, and let it ride. If it ain't, it ain't, if it is, great.

I generally associate wave 4s of a primary decline with government intervention, and we had plenty of that coming out.

I take a lot of my hints from the bond market, especially junk. Last count I have of junk bonds, we were in wave B.

I don't think I've seen the conclusion to the 'c' yet there either. So it sort of fits.

Counting has never made much sense to me to use an interperative derivative to forecast a function. I mean no offense but guessing games bankrupt most in this game very quickly. You must be a good guesser.

I am having a hard time getting much from the high yield market right now, either technically or transactionally. Corporate credit/project finance environment seems to be improving marginally, but that is about it.

[Leviathan]

did cramer make this comment today?

Says April 2nd in the video.

But cramer is a hack.

It really doesn't matter if he says it bottomed or not, since he's completely incompetent and the choices are only 'yes' or 'no'. He's got 50% chance of being right

yes but it is still worth listening to what pundits are saying. 'groupthink' is very meaningful for markets.

[Gary Smith]

>>>>I am having a hard time getting much from the high yield market right now, either technically or transactionally. Corporate credit/project finance environment seems to be improving marginally, but that is about it. <<<< Since the Fed announced they will begin buying Treasuries at their March meeting, junk bonds have been on a tear. Some of the open end funds haven't had one down day during that 19 day stretch. And since mid December junk bonds have been the stars with double digit gains, far surpassing the other indexes. On the other hand, the closed end junk bond funds (as opposed to the open end junk bond funds) aren't a very reliable tool for determing what is actually occuring in junkland and the junk bond ETFs aren't a whole lot better.