29 replies to this topic

[Mike]

What a pile of #&@%@$! Does anyone see anything good in this?

http://stockcharts.c...130&are=195.png

[SilentOne]

hi mike, This sector is driving me a little nuts right now and GDX is a good example. The cycle situation is this. If PMs are putting in another primary cycle low right here this week and then attack the highs of this year, it confirms the bull but you'd have to sell the next high as a good correction into a 56 week cycle low is still out there. Or, ... PMs can just dive anyday now from here into a 56 week cycle low, leaving the longer term cycles in a mixed picture. Place your bets and take your chances. I'd look for a confirmed breakout in the big names like NEM and ABX as tell. Without them moving its all smoke and mirrors. You know what they say, if it doesn't want to go down, then eventually it will ... go up. cheers, john

Edited by SilentOne, 01 September 2009 - 02:35 PM.

[dharma]

hi mike,

This sector is driving me a little nuts right now and GDX is a good example.

The cycle situation is this. If PMs are putting in another primary cycle low right here this week and then attack the highs of this year, it confirms the bull but you'd have to sell the next high as a good correction into a 56 week cycle low is still out there. Or, ... PMs can just dive anyday now from here into a 56 week cycle low, leaving the longer term cycles in a mixed picture. Place your bets and take your chances. I'd look for a confirmed breakout in the big names like NEM and ABX as tell. Without them moving its all smoke and mirrors.

You know what they say, if it doesn't want to go down, then eventually it will ... go up.

cheers,

john

yes, this is exactly(well stated) what my work suggests. a high mid month followed by a selloff. i wouldnt expecct 1k to be violated. although today is instructive, broads getting hit, the dollar up and old yeller up. correlating the dollar w/gold inversely or otherwise is going to be a very tough game. kinda like a bank shot in billiards. better to be a straight shooter. dharma

[diogenes227]

Gotta say I haven't traded this sector since April (missed that big rally into May ) but I've enjoyed watching you guys have all this fun. Good trading to everyone.

[voy]

Hello.
Looks like a small head and shoulders as the right should of a larger head and shoulders. Maybe it's too obvious, but we also had a H&S right before the collapse in 2008. GDX 2008 Not saying history will repeat - just pointing out a pattern
Joe

[Mike]

Hello.
Looks like a small head and shoulders as the right should of a larger head and shoulders. Maybe it's too obvious, but we also had a H&S right before the collapse in 2008. GDX 2008 Not saying history will repeat - just pointing out a pattern
Joe

Thanks, I missed seeing that H&S, having been blinded by the multiple island reversals.

-MK

[jonbear]

Does anyone see anything good in this?[/size]

I noticed this Bloomberg article few days ago with August/September 2005 and 2007 price reference patterns for gold.

http://www.bloomberg...id=au9vWBOfMd9g

-snippet-

Gold ‘Deja Vu’ Shows Advance Above $1,000: Technical Analysis

By Kim Kyoungwha

Aug. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Gold will rise to more than $1,000 an ounce next month based on moving-average “deja vu” patterns since the start of 2005, according to Barclays Capital.

This year’s trading was similar to previous patterns that indicated gold has a tendency to “break higher” in September and the 200-week moving average showed the uptrend on the precious metal remained intact, Jordan Kotick and other analysts at Barclays wrote in a report on Aug. 21.

Bullion jumped 7.8 percent in September 2005 and 10 percent in September 2007, laying the ground for the metal to rise to new highs in the following months. Gold traded at $946.20 an ounce at 12:40 p.m. local time in Singapore, up 7.3 percent this year. The metal was “mired” in a contracting range between $967 and $928, the analysts said.

“This is likely a repeat of Aug. 2005 and Aug. 2007 when the market broke significantly higher in September,” the analysts said. “We are looking for a breakout above $1,033 next month.” Gold rose to a record $1,032.70 on March 17 last year.

[flyers&divers]

jonbear, thanks for posting the chart. This is a complex consolidation pattern on low volume. Nothing is wrong with it. The more time it spends here the better. If it ever made it to $33 it would be great. I am not trading this until the inflation issue moves into the forefront or it shows independent strength. Regards, F&D

[SilentOne]

hi diogenes227,

Gotta say I haven't traded this sector since April (missed that big rally into May ) but I've enjoyed watching you guys have all this fun.

The reason why I am paying attention right now is that this could be a continuation pattern for the sector and a retest of the highs is in store (would confirm LT bull IMO right here), or a big failure is setting up into a good cycle low. I don't know which way it will go, but that is what is at stake here.

The better LT buy for me will be later this year.

cheers,

john

Edited by SilentOne, 02 September 2009 - 08:10 AM.

[wxman]

http://www.traders-t...mp;#entry479707

Aug 25 2009, 12:53 PM

I'm sticking with this 8 year cycle
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOL...0&listNum=1
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI...amp;a=114733746

and this count
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$XAU...amp;a=150423074