12 replies to this topic

[Thunders]

I hope I do not sound arrogant; I just try to read the charts.
And the charts said do not buy yet.

Landscape to charts always can change.

My last post was on GOLD BOTTOM?, and I tried to show the BEAR FLAG.

Please look at this HUI chart closely.
If we do not hold on the lower 190’s, we will test lower 150’s.

One day bounce does not make a bottom. If tomorrow we bounce, still be defensive. You do not have to be first to catch the bottom.

Trade the middle, and there is plenty of money to be made in middle.

[The_Gold_Miner]

I will be watching this channel intraday. I may start with some "very" small buys with an average in system on a touch of the lower trendline. The wave counts have been pretty good so far and this trendline makes a good ending for wave 5 down on the 60 min charts.

[stockbucks_coffee]

good call Thunder, no you're not sounding arrogant. Don't doubt your view in pointing potential risk. For me, I'm just going by my s/t indicators I been using and it has done very well for me. There'll be the 15-20% of the time when it's wrong and today I got hit with my worst lost of the year which is just a 3% lost. that evens out the s/t longs profit trade from last wed. to fri. actually I was thinking a good low/bottom could occur tomorrow but I may sit it out and watch on the sideline. my lesson today is I should had changed my buy limit orders to buy stop orders and let price move up, thus proving a reversal. instead I raised my limit price higher to stimulate a 'market order.' best SC.

[SilentOne]

Hi GM,

I see that channel holding. XAU ABC target is 85-86 now (if you are bullish).

Here's the HUI long view. Thanks to Steve Swink for this chart. An ABC on the HUI would give 55 points down from 241 or about 186 as a target on a spike down. Today or tomorrow most likely, take your pick.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$HUI,uu[p,a]whclyyay[d20000906,20041231][pb10!b40][vc60][iut!uh5,5!ui10,10!up14,3,3][J21672171,Y].gif

cheers,

john

[stockbucks_coffee]

boy, being one day can sure make a difference especially in the volatile xau/hui sectors.

[stockbucks_coffee]

boy, being one day can sure make a difference especially in the volatile xau/hui sectors.

boy, being one day EARLY can sure make a difference especially in the volatile xau/hui sectors.

[The_Gold_Miner]

SilentOne, looks like we got the bounce. Long term I am bullish and think that any long termers would be adding at these levels. I'll probably be picking some up near the close today.

[TechSkeptic]

SilentOne, looks like we got the bounce. Long term I am bullish and think that any long termers would be adding at these levels. I'll probably be picking some up near the close today.

I have considered myself a long termer up to the last few days and have been holding a core gold stock position of around 15-20% of liquid assets. But many of my positions were added at higher prices, and it's very hard for me to add after the recent price action when I'm down by so much. At best I will hold and see if a base builds. The question is what to do when strength returns: do I use it as an exit point? Or do I add? The last time we appeared to be "base-building" (in March), it was a fake out and now this happened. I'm really in a quandary over what to do here. Fundamentally I still think gold has a case but the technicals look pretty awful right now. Silver looks even worse.

[The_Gold_Miner]

SilentOne, looks like we got the bounce. Long term I am bullish and think that any long termers would be adding at these levels.  I'll probably be picking some up near the close today.

I have considered myself a long termer up to the last few days and have been holding a core gold stock position of around 15-20% of liquid assets. But many of my positions were added at higher prices, and it's very hard for me to add after the recent price action when I'm down by so much. At best I will hold and see if a base builds. The question is what to do when strength returns: do I use it as an exit point? Or do I add? The last time we appeared to be "base-building" (in March), it was a fake out and now this happened. I'm really in a quandary over what to do here. Fundamentally I still think gold has a case but the technicals look pretty awful right now. Silver looks even worse.

What's your safety net exit strategy TechSkeptic? Long term (years) the gold market is still going strong, it's the mid term action that is getting hit. If the elliott wave counts I watch are correct then we can make a new high above last Nov/Dec before the 5 wave advance is over. Mid term I see the XAU bouncing off the bottom of a bear channel, and hitting 100 near term seems possible. I loaded up on longs near the close today for a short term trade. If the XAU falls through the lower channel I'm out. At this point I see more positives than negatives for a long position as long as you have a good exit strategy, because no one can tell the future... heheh

[TechSkeptic]

Good question, Gold Miner, and I'm suffering right now from not having a good exit strategy in place. That's the pitfall of buy and hold. At this point I would have to say that if the 200 DMA starts turning downward convincingly, it's definitely time to bail. But gold stocks might suffer worse losses by the time that happens. I think that a stop below today's lows on most gold stocks would be a good failsafe, but that would be too tight, so I'll give it another 1% below today's lows. After thinking about this all day, I've decided that long-term this is probably the time to buy not sell. But since I didn't sell when I should have, buying heavily now would give me too much exposure to this sector. So I'll mostly just hold and maybe nibble a bit. Right now I'm looking at GLG, GSS, and AEM as nibble candidates. They seem to be holding up relatively well compared to some. If we do get a decent rally, I'll be more prudent from now on and use trailing stops. (I have been reluctant to use stops in this sector due to the volatility but now I've learned my lesson ). I really want to thank all my good buddies on this board for helping me think this through, especially stockbucks_coffee, hiker, and teki.