Ned Davis 'Crowd Sentiment Poll' at 63.3
#1
Posted 03 December 2009 - 08:33 PM
A 46.9% average exposure level is not excessive in absolute terms. The record high for this average over the last three decades was 79.7%.
So we have a ways more to go before we reach record high levels of bullishness.
Still, however, the recent trend is heading quickly in the wrong direction.
A potentially more disturbing story is being told by the "Crowd Sentiment Poll" maintained by Ned Davis Research, the institutional research firm. The poll is a composite of seven different sentiment indicators.
According to the firm, the average level of this poll at past stock market peaks was 67.8--only barely above its current level of 63.3.
The bottom line? Even if they are not issuing sell signals, contrarians are nevertheless concerned. Mark Hulbert
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/
#2
Posted 03 December 2009 - 09:12 PM
#3
Posted 03 December 2009 - 10:25 PM
http://www.menafn.co.....AFAFA5ED28D7}
#5
Posted 03 December 2009 - 11:18 PM
Edited by Gary Smith, 03 December 2009 - 11:26 PM.
#6
Posted 04 December 2009 - 12:23 AM
Russ, any link to your information on Hulbert? Below is the latest I've seen from him on newsletter sentiment and it completely flies in the face of what you say. But maybe you have something more current than my link which was from last Friday? As an aside and from a sentiment viewpoint, I've never in my lifetime seen the rally we have had since the March lows and accompanied by such muted inflows into equity mutual funds. The Average Joe investor out there, which this forum likes to refer to as the suckers, seems to have missed this one so far. Most all the inflows have been into bond funds. Also, yet again today, the Merrill Lynch High Yield Master II Index ( the proxy for junk bonds) made another all time historic high.
http://www.menafn.co.....AFAFA5ED28D7}
The article I posted above is dated Dec.3... here's the link.. http://www.marketwat...sell-2009-12-03
"In order to master the markets, you must first master yourself" ... JP Morgan
"Most people lose money because they cannot admit they are wrong"... Martin Armstrong
http://marketvisions.blogspot.com/