VRTrader Update
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, Dec 28 2009 08:34 AM
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TTHQ Staff
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Posted 28 December 2009 - 08:34 AM
TheVRTrader.com VR Silver Newsletter - Monday 12/28/2009
"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright ©2009, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.
"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright ©2009, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.
LEIBOVIT FILES | by MarkLeibovit
Leibovit Files
Monday, December 28, 2009
End Of The Month (And Yearly) Window Dressing In Full Force
UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES/MARKET EVENTS
DECEMBER 28, 2009 - JANUARY 1, 2010:
---------------------------------------------
MONDAY, December 28, 2009:
4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
---------------------------------------------
TUESDAY, December 29, 2009:
Turnaround Tuesday
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
---------------------------------------------
WEDNESDAY, December 30, 2009:
Bank Reserve Settlement
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
---------------------------------------------
THURSDAY, December 31, 2009:
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
SIFMA Rec. Early Close 2:00 ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
---------------------------------------------
FRIDAY, January 1, 2010:
US Holiday: New Year's Day
All Markets Closed
---------------------------------------------
STOCKS - ACTION alert -
Santa Claus spread the holiday cheer this year as the market ralliedeach day last week. A weak dollar and better than expected joblessclaims report sent equities to another round of gains in theabbreviated session. For the day, the Dow was up 53.66 at 10,520.10,the S&P 500 was up 5.89 at 1126.48, and the Nasdaq Composite was up16.05 at 2285.69, Volume was very light and breadth was positive.
All the major market indexes hit new recovery highs Thursday. Amongsectors, Materials (XLB +0.78%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.07%),and Technology (XLK +0.92%) hit new highs. The bulls are clearly incontrol here.
The weak dollar spurred buying interest in the metals Thursday assilver (SLV +2.09%) and gold (GLD +1.70%) were very strong, althoughvolume was understandably lacking.
Semiconductors (SMH +1.56%) and real estate (IYR +1.26%) were alsostrong as risk flows remain solid.
Financials also showed strength as XLF gained 0.90%.
The Nasdaq 100 was the strongest index Thursday as it gained 0.96%.
Health Care (XLV unchanged) was the only sector not to rally afterthe Senate passed it health care bill early Thursday morning.
Thursday's action added to optimism among the bulls that economicrecovery is straight ahead. The risk flows in the market continue to behealthy and the positive seasonals for this time of year are adding tothe positive backdrop, at least through the coming week.
End of the month and possibly yearly 'window dressing' was apparenton Thursday, especially when see a popular name such as Apple Computer(AAPL) surged to a new bull market high of 209.35 sending the bearsscurrying into their caves. We could see 230 and the next upsidetrading objective.
The big question is whether we're setting up for a huge marketcorrection after the first of the year? The answer really depends onhow far we go in the interim. Volume is understandably light here intothe end of the year, but that doesn't preclude higher prices.
Historically, the February to mid-March period coincident hostsimportant cyclical 'change points' in the market. Witness the bearmarket low this past March. Just as easily, March could host a big bullmarket top, so we have to watch our short-term indicators. I amcurrently leaning to a scenario of a market top over the next couple tothree weeks followed by a correction.
Overall, I can still see strength continuing well into 2010 (whetherits a bear market rally or not). Much depends on the outcome of myAnnual Forecast Model which will be completed later in January, but canbe purchased now at:
https://www.vrtrader.com/subscribe/index.asp
--------------------------------------------
DOW TRANSPORTS - ACTION alert -
The Transports continued to climb despite rising oil prices whichtranslate into higher costs for the industry. The Dow Transports tradedat 4216.31, a new bull market high and IYT, the surrogate ETF touched75.85. At the close, the Dow Jones Transportation Average pulled back abit and only gained 4.33 or 0.10% to 4187.86.
The Dow Transport remains my leading market indicator!
---------------------------------------------
GOLD and METALS - ACTION alert -
Precious metals rallied on the tepid performance of the dollar andalso on a bounce from the deeply oversold condition. Gold was up 18.10to 1105.20. Silver was up 0.36 to 17.47. Platinum surged 41 to 1460,and palladium was up 27 to 384.
Copper futures rallied a strong 0.0890 to 3.2925 and set a newrecovery high of 3.3040, a level not seen since September 2008.
Jim Rogers CNBC interview:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxCJXf3A1uE&feature=player_embedded
The VR Gold Letter is available to Platinum subscribers for only anadditional $50 per month and to Silver subscribers for only $70 permonth. Email me at mark.vrtrader@gmail.com to sign up today!
---------------------------------------------
BONDS - ACTION alert -
Treasuries fell on Thursday after the good jobless claims report andas traders move money out of bonds and into stocks. The long bondfuture declined 23/32 to 115 7/32.
Ten-year yields rose 0.059 to 3.807%, their highest level sinceAugust. Thirty-year yields rose 0.084 to 4.687%, their highest sinceJune.
Traders are turning their attention to the coming week's $118billion in note auctions, with plenty of skepticism that they willreceive anywhere near the strong demand at recent sales. The TreasuryDepartment will be looking for buyers for $44 billion in 2-year noteson Monday. That sale will be followed by $42 billion sale of 5-yearnotes Tuesday and $32 billion in 7-year debt on Wednesday. The amountsare the same as last month's sales, but demand may be subdued duringthat holiday-shortened week, when many firms will have reduced tradingactivity at end of the year. IEF was off 0.36% and TLT was off 1.04%.
---------------------------------------------
CRUDE OIL - ACTION alert -
Oil continued its push higher after Wednesday's big decline ininventories and the good jobless claims report has traders excitedabout economic prospects. Crude oil was up 1.38 to 78.05.
Pumping has restarted through Iraq's 450,000 barrel-a-day oil exportpipeline to Turkey after an explosion forced its closure on Dec. 20,Turkey's Energy Ministry said. Volume through the link should return tonormal in a few days, a ministry official in Ankara said Thursday,speaking on condition of anonymity.
Natural gas fell 0.186 to 5.698, but only after hitting a recoveryhigh of 5.984.
---------------------------------------------
US DOLLAR - ACTION alert -
The dollar was weaker on Thursday after Greece took action toimprove its financial situation. But the good jobless claims reportbrought traders back to the relative safety and strength of the UScurrency. The U.S. Dollar Index was down .034 at 77.863.
The euro found some support after Greece approved a plan to cut itsbudget deficit, easing some of the concerns over the stability ofsovereign debt that had supported the dollar in recent weeks. Greece'sparliament approved the socialist government's plan to cut the budgetdeficit in 2010 to a level equal to 9.1% of gross domestic product.Without action, the deficit was forecast to hit more than 12% of GDP.Even with the measures, the gap remains more than three times the 3%deficit limit imposed on euro-zone countries. Critics have charged thatthe budget plan relies too heavily on one-time measures.
---------------------------------------------
URANIUM - ACTION alert
Ux U3O8 Prices* (Uranium)
December 14, 2009 Posting
Spot: $45.00 UNCHANGED. Bull market high in the cash market was$138.00.
The December Uranium Futures closed at $44.35. The current bearmarket low is $42.00. June 13, 2007 hosted the bull market high of154.95. Major support lies well under the market at $36.00.
The spot price of uranium quadrupled from 2004 to 2007. When it hit$138/lb, uranium became a certified bubble, which has now burst. Forinvestors, this is the best possible news, of course. Nuclear power isthe ultimate alternative fuel, as the French will tell you. You get allthe power, 84% cheaper than coal, with none of the politics of roguenations and none of the greenhouse emissions.
---------------------------------------------
ECONOMIC NEWS:
First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell a seasonallyadjusted 28,000 to 452,000 in the week ended Dec. 19, hitting thelowest level since September 2008, the Labor Department reportedThursday. Economists were looking for an initial claims level of470,000. The four-week average of new claims fell 2,750 to 465,250,which also hit the lowest level since September 2008. The four-weekaverage smoothes out distortions in the week-to-week data. In the weekended Dec. 12, the number of people who continued to collect benefitsfell 127,000 to 5.08 million, the lowest level since February. Thefour-week average of continuing claims fell 90,000 to 5.23 million, thelowest level since March.
A big drop in volatile aircraft orders masked a broad-based increasein demand for other U.S.-made durable goods in November, the CommerceDepartment reported Thursday. Orders for durable goods rose aseasonally adjusted 0.2% in November, held back by a massive 32.6% dropin aircraft bookings. Excluding transportation goods, orders rose 2%.Although the monthly report is volatile, the trend is improving, withorders up in two of the past three months. Through the first 11 monthsof 2009, durable-goods orders were down 21.6% compared to thecorresponding period in 2008. Since June, orders are up 3.8%. Totalorders were weaker than the 0.6% increase expected by economists.
Morgan Stanley economists increased their forecast forfourth-quarter U.S. gross domestic product growth to a 5.1 percentannualized rate from 4.1 percent after the U.S. Commerce Departmentreported durable-goods bookings, excluding transportation, increased 2percent last month.
Mark Leibovit was also named the #1 Gold Timer for the one-yearperiod ending March 25, 2008. Most recently, from: 12/26/08 to:03/27/2009, he is ranked in the #5 position for 3 month return.
Current TIMER DIGEST signals for stocks:
'Buy' signal March 4, 2009.
'Sell' signal May 27, 2009.
'Buy' signal July 21, 2009.
'Sell' signal September 2, 2009.
'Buy' signal September 3, 2009.
'Sell' signal October 15, 2009.
'Buy' signal November 13, 2009.
'Sell' signal November 30, 2009.
'Buy' signal December 1, 2009.
Current TIMER DIGEST signals for Gold:
'Sell' signal November 30, 2009.
'Buy' signal December 1, 2009.
Mark Leibovit is currently ranked the #2 Market Timer for the 3month period ending October 23, 2009.
Leibovit Files
Monday, December 28, 2009
End Of The Month (And Yearly) Window Dressing In Full Force
UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES/MARKET EVENTS
DECEMBER 28, 2009 - JANUARY 1, 2010:
---------------------------------------------
MONDAY, December 28, 2009:
4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
---------------------------------------------
TUESDAY, December 29, 2009:
Turnaround Tuesday
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
---------------------------------------------
WEDNESDAY, December 30, 2009:
Bank Reserve Settlement
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
Chicago PMI
9:45 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
7-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Farm Prices
3:00 PM ET
---------------------------------------------
THURSDAY, December 31, 2009:
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
SIFMA Rec. Early Close 2:00 ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
---------------------------------------------
FRIDAY, January 1, 2010:
US Holiday: New Year's Day
All Markets Closed
---------------------------------------------
STOCKS - ACTION alert -
Santa Claus spread the holiday cheer this year as the market ralliedeach day last week. A weak dollar and better than expected joblessclaims report sent equities to another round of gains in theabbreviated session. For the day, the Dow was up 53.66 at 10,520.10,the S&P 500 was up 5.89 at 1126.48, and the Nasdaq Composite was up16.05 at 2285.69, Volume was very light and breadth was positive.
All the major market indexes hit new recovery highs Thursday. Amongsectors, Materials (XLB +0.78%), Consumer Discretionary (XLY +0.07%),and Technology (XLK +0.92%) hit new highs. The bulls are clearly incontrol here.
The weak dollar spurred buying interest in the metals Thursday assilver (SLV +2.09%) and gold (GLD +1.70%) were very strong, althoughvolume was understandably lacking.
Semiconductors (SMH +1.56%) and real estate (IYR +1.26%) were alsostrong as risk flows remain solid.
Financials also showed strength as XLF gained 0.90%.
The Nasdaq 100 was the strongest index Thursday as it gained 0.96%.
Health Care (XLV unchanged) was the only sector not to rally afterthe Senate passed it health care bill early Thursday morning.
Thursday's action added to optimism among the bulls that economicrecovery is straight ahead. The risk flows in the market continue to behealthy and the positive seasonals for this time of year are adding tothe positive backdrop, at least through the coming week.
End of the month and possibly yearly 'window dressing' was apparenton Thursday, especially when see a popular name such as Apple Computer(AAPL) surged to a new bull market high of 209.35 sending the bearsscurrying into their caves. We could see 230 and the next upsidetrading objective.
The big question is whether we're setting up for a huge marketcorrection after the first of the year? The answer really depends onhow far we go in the interim. Volume is understandably light here intothe end of the year, but that doesn't preclude higher prices.
Historically, the February to mid-March period coincident hostsimportant cyclical 'change points' in the market. Witness the bearmarket low this past March. Just as easily, March could host a big bullmarket top, so we have to watch our short-term indicators. I amcurrently leaning to a scenario of a market top over the next couple tothree weeks followed by a correction.
Overall, I can still see strength continuing well into 2010 (whetherits a bear market rally or not). Much depends on the outcome of myAnnual Forecast Model which will be completed later in January, but canbe purchased now at:
https://www.vrtrader.com/subscribe/index.asp
--------------------------------------------
DOW TRANSPORTS - ACTION alert -
The Transports continued to climb despite rising oil prices whichtranslate into higher costs for the industry. The Dow Transports tradedat 4216.31, a new bull market high and IYT, the surrogate ETF touched75.85. At the close, the Dow Jones Transportation Average pulled back abit and only gained 4.33 or 0.10% to 4187.86.
The Dow Transport remains my leading market indicator!
---------------------------------------------
GOLD and METALS - ACTION alert -
Precious metals rallied on the tepid performance of the dollar andalso on a bounce from the deeply oversold condition. Gold was up 18.10to 1105.20. Silver was up 0.36 to 17.47. Platinum surged 41 to 1460,and palladium was up 27 to 384.
Copper futures rallied a strong 0.0890 to 3.2925 and set a newrecovery high of 3.3040, a level not seen since September 2008.
Jim Rogers CNBC interview:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxCJXf3A1uE&feature=player_embedded
The VR Gold Letter is available to Platinum subscribers for only anadditional $50 per month and to Silver subscribers for only $70 permonth. Email me at mark.vrtrader@gmail.com to sign up today!
---------------------------------------------
BONDS - ACTION alert -
Treasuries fell on Thursday after the good jobless claims report andas traders move money out of bonds and into stocks. The long bondfuture declined 23/32 to 115 7/32.
Ten-year yields rose 0.059 to 3.807%, their highest level sinceAugust. Thirty-year yields rose 0.084 to 4.687%, their highest sinceJune.
Traders are turning their attention to the coming week's $118billion in note auctions, with plenty of skepticism that they willreceive anywhere near the strong demand at recent sales. The TreasuryDepartment will be looking for buyers for $44 billion in 2-year noteson Monday. That sale will be followed by $42 billion sale of 5-yearnotes Tuesday and $32 billion in 7-year debt on Wednesday. The amountsare the same as last month's sales, but demand may be subdued duringthat holiday-shortened week, when many firms will have reduced tradingactivity at end of the year. IEF was off 0.36% and TLT was off 1.04%.
---------------------------------------------
CRUDE OIL - ACTION alert -
Oil continued its push higher after Wednesday's big decline ininventories and the good jobless claims report has traders excitedabout economic prospects. Crude oil was up 1.38 to 78.05.
Pumping has restarted through Iraq's 450,000 barrel-a-day oil exportpipeline to Turkey after an explosion forced its closure on Dec. 20,Turkey's Energy Ministry said. Volume through the link should return tonormal in a few days, a ministry official in Ankara said Thursday,speaking on condition of anonymity.
Natural gas fell 0.186 to 5.698, but only after hitting a recoveryhigh of 5.984.
---------------------------------------------
US DOLLAR - ACTION alert -
The dollar was weaker on Thursday after Greece took action toimprove its financial situation. But the good jobless claims reportbrought traders back to the relative safety and strength of the UScurrency. The U.S. Dollar Index was down .034 at 77.863.
The euro found some support after Greece approved a plan to cut itsbudget deficit, easing some of the concerns over the stability ofsovereign debt that had supported the dollar in recent weeks. Greece'sparliament approved the socialist government's plan to cut the budgetdeficit in 2010 to a level equal to 9.1% of gross domestic product.Without action, the deficit was forecast to hit more than 12% of GDP.Even with the measures, the gap remains more than three times the 3%deficit limit imposed on euro-zone countries. Critics have charged thatthe budget plan relies too heavily on one-time measures.
---------------------------------------------
URANIUM - ACTION alert
Ux U3O8 Prices* (Uranium)
December 14, 2009 Posting
Spot: $45.00 UNCHANGED. Bull market high in the cash market was$138.00.
The December Uranium Futures closed at $44.35. The current bearmarket low is $42.00. June 13, 2007 hosted the bull market high of154.95. Major support lies well under the market at $36.00.
The spot price of uranium quadrupled from 2004 to 2007. When it hit$138/lb, uranium became a certified bubble, which has now burst. Forinvestors, this is the best possible news, of course. Nuclear power isthe ultimate alternative fuel, as the French will tell you. You get allthe power, 84% cheaper than coal, with none of the politics of roguenations and none of the greenhouse emissions.
---------------------------------------------
ECONOMIC NEWS:
First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell a seasonallyadjusted 28,000 to 452,000 in the week ended Dec. 19, hitting thelowest level since September 2008, the Labor Department reportedThursday. Economists were looking for an initial claims level of470,000. The four-week average of new claims fell 2,750 to 465,250,which also hit the lowest level since September 2008. The four-weekaverage smoothes out distortions in the week-to-week data. In the weekended Dec. 12, the number of people who continued to collect benefitsfell 127,000 to 5.08 million, the lowest level since February. Thefour-week average of continuing claims fell 90,000 to 5.23 million, thelowest level since March.
A big drop in volatile aircraft orders masked a broad-based increasein demand for other U.S.-made durable goods in November, the CommerceDepartment reported Thursday. Orders for durable goods rose aseasonally adjusted 0.2% in November, held back by a massive 32.6% dropin aircraft bookings. Excluding transportation goods, orders rose 2%.Although the monthly report is volatile, the trend is improving, withorders up in two of the past three months. Through the first 11 monthsof 2009, durable-goods orders were down 21.6% compared to thecorresponding period in 2008. Since June, orders are up 3.8%. Totalorders were weaker than the 0.6% increase expected by economists.
Morgan Stanley economists increased their forecast forfourth-quarter U.S. gross domestic product growth to a 5.1 percentannualized rate from 4.1 percent after the U.S. Commerce Departmentreported durable-goods bookings, excluding transportation, increased 2percent last month.
Mark Leibovit was also named the #1 Gold Timer for the one-yearperiod ending March 25, 2008. Most recently, from: 12/26/08 to:03/27/2009, he is ranked in the #5 position for 3 month return.
Current TIMER DIGEST signals for stocks:
'Buy' signal March 4, 2009.
'Sell' signal May 27, 2009.
'Buy' signal July 21, 2009.
'Sell' signal September 2, 2009.
'Buy' signal September 3, 2009.
'Sell' signal October 15, 2009.
'Buy' signal November 13, 2009.
'Sell' signal November 30, 2009.
'Buy' signal December 1, 2009.
Current TIMER DIGEST signals for Gold:
'Sell' signal November 30, 2009.
'Buy' signal December 1, 2009.
Mark Leibovit is currently ranked the #2 Market Timer for the 3month period ending October 23, 2009.
Suggestions? Comments? on the newsletter service. We would like tohear from each and everyone of our subscribers. Our email is mark.vrtrader@gmail.com.
DISCLAIMER
This newsletter is a publication dedicated to the education ofstock traders. The newsletter is an information service only. Theinformation provided herein is not to be construed as an offer to buyor sell securities of any kind. The newsletter picks are not to beconsidered a recommendation of any stock but an information resource toaid the investor in making an informed decision regarding trading instocks. It is possible at this or some subsequent date, the editors andstaff of VRTrader.com may own, buy or sell securities presented. Allinvestors should consult a qualified professional before trading in anysecurity. The information provided has been obtained from sourcesdeemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness.VRTrader.com staff makes every effort to provide timely information toits subscribers but cannot guarantee s pecific delivery times due tofactors beyond our control.
