13 replies to this topic

[VolPivots]

Reference the chart from an earlier post below....note that extrapolating any of the 3 intersecting angles that meet mid-April should provide support nearby. Probably need at least another low or several retests of yesterday's low, but starting late next week, may be a good long trade. Covered calls may not be a bad strategy to collect some vol premiums and hedge/offset downside risk in case the none of the angles hold. A 50% retrace targets the prior level of consolidation just above 7.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$silver,uu[m,a]daclyyay[pc27!c54][vc60][ilb14!la12,26,9!ll14][j28838215,y]&r=7040.gif

[stockbucks_coffee]

MN, it should at least kiss its 200dma which is currently at 5.83. Silver made move lower to kiss it or the 200dma may slowly move up and meet it. SO either way, we're need strong??? support levels SC.

[VolPivots]

MN, it should at least kiss its 200dma which is currently at 5.83. Silver made move lower to kiss it or the 200dma may slowly move up and meet it. SO either way, we're need strong??? support levels SC.

Didn't realize that--thx. Watching from the sidelines for the time being....hope to see silver stocks strengthen a bit in advance of the metal.

[dougie]

covered calls in what MN?

[VolPivots]

Commodity futures/options

[TechSkeptic]

MN, it should at least kiss its 200dma which is currently at 5.83. Silver made move lower to kiss it or the 200dma may slowly move up and meet it. SO either way, we're need strong??? support levels SC.

stockbucks, I noticed that it's already breached the 200 day EMA (6.09) today. The SMA is not far below. Gold is holding just barely above both the EMA and SMA, which are almost the same at 392 and 391. Maybe we're finally at the buy point (or close to it) for both metals.

[stockbucks_coffee]

yes, xau/hui and the gold stocks may be basing at a bottom support levels. just being more cautious of silver and silver stocks. since gold/silver ratio 'bottomed' at 51 and the silver stuff has sharply underperformed the gold stuff this month. currently the ratio rallied to around 64-65. maybe at or near resistance but can't be sure. only 'worry' is that I would still be 'expecting' them to also kiss their 200dma. at least they much closer to it now then last month. SC.

[thakid]

MarketNeutral, I think i recognize you from Alex B's Forum. I'm SPXD or TKD on that board. My question to you is what is the pentagram looking figure and how do you or whoever use it to forecast direction ( : TKD

[VolPivots]

Thakid, Yes I used to post over there until I lost my password. I still lurk at the site from time-to-time. I think it was you that posted some excellent Euro charts that aided my own work not to stay too bullish on the Euro near it's 1.29 peak area. As for your question, I'm not sure it can really be used to forecast direction. My whole premise for suggesting that some sort of low could be put in late last week was that Silver would find support at one of the extrapolated angles and an expanded version of the fractal that initiated the advance from the beginning of the rally on the chart into the high would possibly be in play, a repeating cycle if you will (although it wouldn't necessarily imply a new high, just that the pattern and turns would roughly mimic the prior cycle). Support was not found where I anticipated it would be--it blew right through each of the 3 angles (just eyeballing). Timewise though (similar to the ~ Nov low in the prior cycle), silver has rebounded into the area where I thought support could be found (so it may now be resistance). I also know that April contracts expired the 27th, so now that that's out of the way, there is hope. What I'll be watching going forward is whether or not the CIT dates roughly approximate the prior rally cycle (we are currently in early November from the prior wave so some consolidation/retest of the lows would be expected here if we are indeed an expansion of the initial fractal). If so, it will become an better aid in forecasting. Sorry for the lengthy explanation, but hopefully it's helpful. Regards, MN

[thakid]

Its great to see you ( :

I was just saying to one of the other members on the board that it really is a small world after all.

I'm happy to hear you were able to make use of some of the cyclical work on the EURO. That was one heck of a move when it ran from 1.29 to below 1.18 without even flinching.

http://scott.aresins...ls/EC77Long.gif

I never traded the precious metals before but i'm thinking Gold, Platinum and Silver will be a good start for me.

Thanks for the detailed explanation, it was defnitely helpful.... + it served in allowing me to understand a little better where your coming from.

Keep in touch (and keep up the good work )

TKD