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[cappy]

The 50 week or 38-62 week cycle is due no later than 2nd week of april. Using the 25 week moving average, on friday the 25 week moving average was 1072 and rising 3 points a week. We need to trade below 25 wk mov avg and then back above in order to signal its arrival. That looks probable now. The problem for the market is last march was 4 year cycle low. 42-54 months. I use the 23 month moving average for signals. That average is at 1058. If we were to trade below that, it is likely the 4 yr cycle is rolling over. Then to add to the negatives, the largest correction since march is 9%. 9% from 1150 gives us 1046. A break of 1046 is big. Another sign bull is over. Then at the obvious 1030, I have that as last primary cycle low,stick a fork in it below there. Also the 8yr or 7-10 yr cycle low hit last march. And along with it the big question. This is important, the 20yr cycle or 17-21 yr range. This cycle started with 1987 low and either arrived in 2002 early at year 15 or late in 2009 in year 22. One is bearish the other bullish. I favor the cycle hit in 2002. This is very bearish if correct. The most important long term cycles we face are the 82 and 84 yr cycles they are crucial from 2014 -2016. Thats my take. My bias is bearish, I have been looking for a top to match the tops in 1909 and 1919. I had expected it to arrive before end of feb. Or approximately within 3 months of the 90 and 100yr highs. Im not patting myself on the back just yet. The market could avoid dropping below the 23 month moving avg and hold above 1046. A simple drop below 25 week moving average and back above and the bubbles back.