54 replies to this topic

[SevenOfEleven]

711: to be clear: you think the 1930s were the only period of deflation in US history?

Of any consequence, yes. But mind you I'm no historian nor have I lived a hundred years or more. So, I have to base things on what I've read and what I've lived. When I said "Prove it" I wasn't trying to be a smartass. I'm just a bit to-the-point sometimes. If you've got something to teach me then by all means do so, but I've probably read everything simple searches would bring up so it'd take something a bit more refreshing. At very least a good chart or two based on data that at least appears reliable.

I think a very large part of all the inflation/deflation arguments I see all over the web are founded on the premis of a lack of a common dictionary that defines inflation/deflation. By common I don't necessarily mean "right", but rather definitions that all parties involved in the discussion/debate agree upon. Some define deflation as a fiat event in it's entirety. Some define it as valuation event seperate from fiat. Some would argue that there's no difference.

The waters get muddy and even some of the more learned people I've read seem to allude to that as being common when deep in the ocean of economics.

-Seven

[SevenOfEleven]

I think I've made myself misunderstood regarding the right/wrong issue. The cycle I was initially referring to is one I'd been charting for over two years (publically anyway) and it's tolerance ran about +- 10 days. Perhaps I should have said that the calls I'd been making based on the charts I'd been posting of that cycle (actually it was three cycles and two overlays used to pinpoint buy/sell signals) hadn't been wrong for two years. That's in no way whatsoever intended to mean I'm right all the time. I'm wrong a lot - and I'm still what I consider very much an amatuer. That cycle and the cycle I was using to overlay were what kept ticking like a clock. That's rare (at least I think it is) for such precision for so long, but - it's what I was charting and hence I felt I had a good argument as to it's value. But make no mistake, the value was in the cycle, not me being any expert. I am, between personal health issues, working on a system that does it's best to locate such cycles (or as close as possible), but that could be some time in the making. Meantime there's plenty of good cycle software and services around. Hopefully one finds one that isn't dead stuck on "it must be a 13 week cycle" mentality because there are things that deviate from the standard. Simple FFT's will show that much, and I figure that's probably why I've been one of only a few tracking the specific cycles I was - because everyone else was trying to fit the POG in a box. That, in and of itself, may be why it worked so well for so long. I have a theory (shared by many - argued by many) that the more people play given patterns or cycles the same way - the more they fail, because everyone can't win the same on a stock. Just a theory... -Seven

[dougie]

most economists believe we have had two small periods of deflation since the 30's but insignificant really. The U.S. has seen three extended periods of generalized deflation over the past two centuries: from 1814 to 1843; from 1864 to 1896; and from 1920 to 1932.

[SevenOfEleven]

most economists believe we have had two small periods of deflation since the 30's but insignificant really. The U.S. has seen three extended periods of generalized deflation over the past two centuries: from 1814 to 1843; from 1864 to 1896; and from 1920 to 1932.

What's the yardstick used - CPI?