The VRTrader.com VR Silver Newsletter - Monday 5/3/2010"Tools for the High Performance Trader"
Copyright ©2010, All rights reserved.
Redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited. LEIBOVIT FILES | by Mark Leibovit Leibovit Files
Monday, May 03, 2010
I Think The Mayans May Be Right!
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UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES/MARKET EVENTS
MAY 3 - 7, 2010:
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MONDAY, MAY 3, 2010:
PRE-MARKET EARNINGS REPORTS:
Clorox, CNA Financial, Loews Corp
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
POST-MARKET EARNINGS REPORTS:
Anadarko Petro, McKesson, Yamana Gold
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TUESDAY, MAY 4, 2010:
Turnaround Tuesday
PRE-MARKET EARNINGS REPORTS:
Archer-Daniels, Beazer Homes, CVS Caremark, MasterCard, Merck, Pfizer, Tenet Healthcare, Teva Pharm
Motor Vehicle Sales
ICSC-Goldman Store Sales
7:45 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
POST-MARKET EARNINGS REPORTS:
Healthsouth, WebMD Health
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WEDNESDAY, MAY 5, 2010:
PRE-MARKET EARNINGS REPORTS:
IntercontinentalExchange, Kenneth Cole, Pulte Homes, Qwest, SPX Corp
MBA Purchase Applications
7:00 AM ET
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
Treasury Refunding Announcement
9:00 AM ET
3-Yr Note Announcement
9:00 AM ET
10-Yr Note Announcement
9:00 AM ET
30-Yr Bond Announcement
9:00 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren speech to the Money Marketeers of New York University.
7:00 PM ET
POST-MARKET EARNINGS REPORTS:
CBS Corp, Con-way, Prudential, Transocean
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THURSDAY, MAY 6, 2010:
PRE-MARKET EARNINGS REPORTS:
CIGNA, Dr Pepper Snapple, Hyatt Hotels, MGM Mirage, Sara Lee
Chain Store Sales
Monster Employment Index
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
Ben Bernanke Speaks
9:30 AM ET
EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
6-Month Bill Announcement
11:00 AM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
POST-MARKET EARNINGS REPORTS:
Sara Lee, Kraft Foods, Weight Watchers
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FRIDAY, MAY 7, 2010:
PRE-MARKET EARNINGS REPORTS:
CF Industries, PG&E
Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Charles Plosser addresses the Delaware State Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook luncheon in Wilmington.
11:30 AM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
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STOCKS - ACTION ALERT -
BOTTOM LINE: Despite all the negatives and potential negatives cited below, a clear and discernbible downtrend (resumption of the bear market) has not yet been confirmed. Having said that, I cannot argue against taking chips off the table at this time. Little highs can become big highs (in hindsight) and time is working against this bull market!
I remain on my TIMER DIGEST 'Buy' signal, but keeping my foot in the door.
The market largely ignored a decent GDP report, the best Chicago ISM report in five years, and better than expected consumer sentiment on Friday. Instead, it focused on reports of a criminal probe into Goldman Sachs, two downgrades of that company's stocks, and some disappointing earnings reports, especially among Financials. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended near its session lows, off 158.71 points, or 1.42%, to 11,008.61. The S&P fell 20.10 or 1.67% to 1186.68. NASDAQ did even worse, dropping 50.73 or 2.02% to 2461.19. Breadth was extremely in negative.
There are several reasons to be cautious (if not outright bearish) on the market going forward. To begin with, we all know that positive seasonality for the market ends in May. Even last year with a strong a bull market underway the market languished into July following an early May peak. It is also clear that leading markets such as Copper and natural resource based economies such as Brazil have recently begun to underperform other markets. What about the government's sudden attack on the leading and most powerful Wall Street firm, Goldman Sachs? I've told you that the implications of these actions if taken to the extreme will likely precipitate another market crash? Why would Obama wish to crash the market other than use it as an opportunity to seize further power and control? How about China? China has not seen new recovery highs since last November - Shanghai since last May. How about the problem with PIGS (Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain)and its overall effect on the European Economic Union? Where there is smoke there is fire. We learned this the hard way when Bear Stearns began experiencing problems in 2007 -problems we were led to believe might only be isolated. How are the Marxist-Socialist government now in the White House? Is that good for free capitalism? What about the sudden 'about-face' at the White House regarding the U.S. greatest ally in the Mideast, Israel? What about the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and the likelihood its impact will be far greater than being reported? Let's talk about earth changes and natural disasater impacts such the Haitian and Peruvian earthquakes and the Volcano in Iceland and other potential sore spots around the planet? What about the impending increase in taxes at all levels of government and its impact on the economy? What impact will rising interest rates have in the same regard? What about the costly IRS mandate slipped into the Health Care bill (see article below). What about immigration? Do you think Americans in Arizona, California, T exas and Mexico can prevent a war from breaking out along the border as immigration laws on the books finally become enforced? What about the growing and militant influence of the Islamic community on our college campuses and their impact in college students views toward the U.S. and Israel? Is the U.S. making motions to move away from Israel due to the inevitable Iranian/Israeli war? Let's talk about the 'Tea-Party' movement in the U.S. Do you think for one moment that the seeds of revolution are not being planted in the U.S. and, if not, seeds of secession as we witnessed before the Civil War? And, we're not even talking about the trillions upon trillions of debt that will go
Maybe the Mayans were right. It may not all unfold by 2012, but it appears the years ahead may be far from rosy due to a whole slew of escalating eventsreasons cited above.
Technicals turned negative when this past week's rally attempt failed to move into new high ground. Granted, that could change quickly, but until it does the risk of a bigger decline or at least a great deal of choppiness persists.
New 401(k) funds are going to be put to work today and possibly part of this week, so we may see the market rebound again. How it acts this week will likely confirm whether more selling lies ahead. I mentioned 10,750 in the Dow Industrials and 1069 in the S&P 500 as next short-term downside targets.
Eight of the nine market sectors fell on Friday. Only defensive Utilities managed a small gain (XLU +0.40%). Other defensive sectors performed relatively well (XLP -0.58% and XLV -1.28%). Economically sensitive sectors did very poorly (XLI -2.37% and XLY -2.08%). Industrials actually hit a new bull-market high this morning of 33.46 before turning negative.
But the worst sector of all was Financials (XLF -2.42% after the Goldman Sachs news and earnings reports from Genworth, MetLife, and Barclays.
Technology also fell sharply (XLK -2.10%).
Demonstrating further defensive actions by traders, Small Caps (IWM -2.93%) fell much more sharply than Large Caps (VV -1.69%).
Friday's decline was the second big decline of the week and the third in just eleven days. The market is getting sick and Europe is the cause.
AFTER HOURS NEWS:
Three bank failures in Puerto Rico on Friday raised the tally of failed U.S. banks for the year to 60, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Puerto Rico's Westernbank will be taken over by Banco Popular de Puerto Rico; Eurobank will be taken over by Oriental Bank and Trust; and R-G Premier Bank of Puerto Rico will be taken over by Scotiabank de Puerto Rico. The three banks had a combined total of $20.42 billion in assets and $14.84 billion in deposits. The failures will cost the deposit-insurance fund about $5.28 billion.
CF Bancorp of Port Huron, Mich., became the 61st bank failure of the year on Friday, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. CF Bancorp had $1.65 billion in assets and $1.43 billion in deposits. First Michigan Bank of Troy, Mich., will take over all the deposits and buy $870 million of the failed bank's assets. Earlier in the day, the FDIC reported that three Puerto Rico banks had failed.
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DOW TRANSPORTS - ACTION ALERT -
Transportation stocks fell with the broader market on Friday. Rising oil prices are also weighing on the group. The Dow Jones Transportation Average lost 91.79 or 1.93% to close at 4670.92. A new bull market high in the Tranports (4812.87) was followed by a 'key reversal' on increased volume - not a healthy technical event. Still, I don't see a downtrend - only a one-day event. Let's watch closely.
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GOLD and METALS - ACTION ALERT -
We're in a cyclical time frame for some kind of trading top in Gold. My hope was that by early May Gold would have tested or exceeded the December 1225 high. The fact is has not does not preclude higher highs later in the year and certainly doesn't cause me to go out and liquidate my physical gold holdings. More details in my VR Gold Letter (www.vrgoldletter.com).
Gold and silver rallied to multi-month highs on Friday as traders moved to safety after European markets fell overnight as the bad news continues in Europe. Platinum and palladium were mixed and stayed below their highs. Gold gained 12.10 to 1179.30 and hit a five-month high of 1183.00. Silver jumped 0.21 to 18.64 and hit 18.79, its highest level since mid-January. Platinum was up 9 to 1741, palladium fell 1 to 549, and copper gained 0.0030 to 3.3535.
Don't forget to check out the weekly VR Gold Letter:
www.vrgoldletter.com
If you are a Platinum or Silver subscriber, special discount rates are offered ($50 and $70, respectively, versus $125.00 per month). Please contact my office for details: mark.vrtrader@gmail.com or 928-282-1275.
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BONDS - ACTION ALERT -
Money is seeking 'safety' in the bond market. Is a large equity correction ahead and/or are we headed for greater deflation?
I've been reluctant to short the bonds in fear we have not seen a sufficient enough of a rally, i.e., poor risk/reward. We're still in a mini uptrend. Will it become a maxi uptrend? On the sidelines until this issue is resolved.
Treasuries rallied Friday as European traders looked for safety. Even the good economic news in the US couldn't counter the flow of funds into the largest "safe" investment in the world. The long bond future jumped 27/32 to 119 2/32.
The June T-bond future closed at its highest level in five months. As a front month contract, it closed at its highest level in five weeks. The 30-year Treasury yield is now at its lowest rate in two months while the 10-year yield is at its lowest level in five weeks.
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CRUDE OIL - ACTION ALERT -
Oil rallied Friday as strong economic reports point to increased economic activity and demand for energy. Additionally, the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico is not only reducing supply, but may prevent new production in the region. Crude oil rose 0.98 to 86.15.
Unless the planet falls into another depression, demand for oil will continue higher and prices will go higher if new sources for oil go undeveloped. Unfortunately, lobbyists and power brokers have done a good job in preventing nuclear power from taking its proper place as our key energy source - a energy source that is inexpensive and infinite. Inroads into windpower, solarpower, geothermal and even natural gas are miniscule and will remain miniscule and will not solve the big picture problem of relying on fossil fuels.
I remember hearing the 'crock' of how new sources of energy will be big in our future at the Exxon exhibit in Epcot Center back in 1982. Nearly 30 years later, unfortunately little has changed. I'm sure Walt Disney would not be pleased.
White House officials said new oil and gas projects in the Gulf of Mexico would likely be put on hold in the wake of the oil spill now washing up on the Louisiana coast.
Natural gas fell 0.060 to 3.920 after Thursday's big 0.368 decline.
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US DOLLAR - ACTION ALERT -
The dollar fell against the euro Friday on rising hopes that a joint European Union-International Monetary Fund aid plan for Greece will be activated soon. The US Dollar Index declined 0.108 to 81.895. The Dollar still has potential to satisfy the 83-84 target range, but also be driven into the high 80s or even low 90s by those who see the Dollar as a bastion of safety in uncertain times. Recall, the strength in the Dollar has political correlations so long as the Democrats are sitting in the White House.
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URANIUM - ACTION ALERT
Ux U3O8 Prices* (Uranium)
April 26, 2010 Posting
Spot: $41.75 UP 0.25. Bull market high in the cash market was $138.00.
The April Uranium Futures closed at $41.50. Uranium futures recent his a new bear market low of 40.00. June 13, 2007 hosted the bull market high of 154.95. Major support lies well under the market at $36.00.
The spot price of uranium quadrupled from 2004 to 2007. When it hit $138/lb, uranium became a certified bubble, which has now burst.
It will clearly take some dramatic 'earth-shaking' events for the idiots who have held back their support for nuclear to turn back in the right (and only) sensible direction. Do we need to see signs of a nuclear winter caused by active volcanoes to realize nuclear energy is infinite? Do we have to pollute our planet and make it unlivable before that same realization comes into being. Wind, solar, natural gas or only band-aids my friends.
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ECONOMIC NEWS:
The U.S. economy grew at a slightly slower-than-expected pace in the first quarter, held back by inventories and exports, but resurgent consumer spending offered evidence of a sustainable recovery. Gross domestic product expanded at a 3.2 percent pace, the Commerce Department said in its first estimate -- marking three straight quarters of growth as the economy climbs out of the worst recession since the 1930s. Analysts had forecast GDP growing at a 3.4 percent after a 5.6 percent growth pace in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending accelerating at a 3.6 percent rate, more than double the 1.6 percent pace in the fourth quarter. Excluding inventories the economy expanded at a 1.6 percent rate following a 1.7 percent pace in the fourth quarter.
Business activity in the U.S. expanded in April at the fastest pace in five years, indicating the manufacturing rebound accelerated entering the second quarter. The Institute for Supply Management-Chicago Inc. said that its business barometer rose to 63.8 this month, the highest level since April 2005, from 58.8 in March. Figures greater than 50 signal expansion. Economists forecast the gauge would rise to 60.
U.S. consumer sentiment improved marginally in late April after sinking earlier in the month, according to media reports on Friday of the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index. The UMich index rose to 72.2 from 69.5 in mid-April. Economists expected an increase to about 71. March's final reading was 73.6. The index has been largely unchanged since November, remaining at depressed levels. The long-term average is about 87.
News reports on Friday said the Greek government has agreed to implement an additional 23 billion to 24 billion euros ($31.8 billion) worth of cuts in return for the aid. The Financial Times said Greece's parliament would likely approve the plan next week. Reports said the measures, which equal around 10% of Greek gross domestic product, are aimed at cutting Greece's budget deficit by 10 to 11 percentage points over three years from the 13.6% of gross domestic product seen in 2009. The package would reportedly impose a three-year pay freeze on public sector workers, while also eliminating bonuses that amount to two extra months of pay. The package would also eliminate seasonal bonuses for pensioners and boost the average retirement age to 67 from 53.
Trade unions in Athens have vowed to stage new strikes to protest additional austerity measures planned by Greece's government. On Thursday, riot police and protesters clashed near the parliament and the finance ministry in Athens.
A rescue package for Greece, estimated to be 100 billion ($132 billion) to 120 billion euros over three years, may be finalized as early as this weekend. As part of the negotiations, Greece reportedly has agreed to an additional package of austerity measures.
Spain's jobless rate topped 20 percent in the first quarter, national statistics institute INE said Friday, fueling fears over the country's public finances which have rattled global financial markets. The number of unemployed jumped by 280,200 to 4.61 million, more than in Germany which has nearly twice Spain's population, for a jobless rate of 20.05 percent. The unemployment rate rose from 18.83 percent in the fourth quarter. The country has the highest unemployment rate in the 16-nation eurozone and accounts for half the region's job losses over the last two years.
COMPANY NEWS:
Goldman Sachs was downgraded to sell from hold by analysts at Standard & Poor's Equity Research, who also cut their price target on the stock to $140 a share from $180. Bank of America Merrill Lynch also lowering their rating on Goldman Sachs Group to neutral from buy and their price target for the bank's stock to $160 a share from $220 a share. The analysts said the downgrade was prompted by news reports that federal prosecutors are conducting a criminal investigation into whether Goldman or its staff committed securities fraud. GS declined 9.39%.
Genworth Financial reported first-quarter net income of $178 million, or 36 cents a share, compared with a loss of $469 million, or $1.08 a share. Net operating income, before provision for noncontrolling interests, was 30 cents a share. Revenue jumped to $2.42 billion from $1.73 billion a year ago. Analysts had forecast the financial company to earn 26 cents a share on revenue of $2.36 billion. GNW fell 8.68%.
MetLife said first-quarter net income came in at $805 million, or 97 cents a share, versus a net loss of $574 million, or 71 cents a share. Operating profit was $834 million, or $1.01 a share, in the latest period. MetLife was expected to make 97 cents a share. Premiums, fees & other revenues were $8.8 billion in the first quarter of 2010, up 12% from the first quarter of 2009, driven by growth in U.S. and international businesses. MET slipped 0.09%.
Barclays said its first-quarter net profit rose 29% to 1.1 billion pounds ($1.7 billion). Total net income rose 4% to 8.1 billion pounds. Impairments declined 35% to 1.5 billion pounds, compared to the same point a year ago and fell 19% compared to the fourth-quarter of 2009. The lender said that month-to-date trading for April has been consistent with first-quarter trends and it's encouraged by the continued improvement in impairment levels. BCS lost 8.55%.
IntercontinentalExchange said it's buying Climate Exchange for 7.50 pounds a share in cash, valuing it at 395 million pounds, or $604 million. Climate Exchange operates the European Climate Exchange, the Chicago Climate Exchange and the Chicago Climate Futures Exchange. ICE said the deal will enhance earnings in 2011 and slightly hurt them for the balance of the current year. ICE was down 1.84% but CLE.L rose 53.42%.
McAfee said net income fell to $37.6 million, or 23 cents a share, from $53.5 million, or 34 cents a share. The security software maker said revenue rose 12% to $502.7 million. Excluding special items, McAfee said earnings for the period were 60 cents a share. Analysts had expected McAfee to report earnings excluding items of 63 cents a share, and $513.1 million in revenue. MFE dropped 12.09%.
Coinstar said its profit rose to $6.4 million, or 21 cents a share, from $2 million, or 7 cents a share. Revenue rose to $350.1 million from $238.8 million. The company also forecast 2010 earnings of $1.82 to $1.94 a share, compared with an analyst consensus of $1.59 a share. CSTR jumped 16.10%.
KLA-Tencor reported profit of $57 million, or 33 cents a share, compared with a loss of $83 million, or 49 cents a share. Revenue rose to $478 million from $310 million in the same quarter the previous year. Adjusted income was 41 cents a share. Analysts expected earnings of 35 cents a share, on revenue of $473.5 million. KLAC fell 1.82%.
Maxim Integrated Products said that it swung to a profit of $65.8 million, or 21 cents a share, from a loss of $26.4 million, or 9 cents a share. Excluding one-time items, the company reported earnings of 27 cents a share. Revenue rose to $508.9 million from $339.7 million a year ago. Analysts estimated a quarterly profit of 27 cents a share on revenue of $513.2 million. MXIM declined 6.46%.
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Canadian TSE, TSE Venture and Canadian Dollar Commentary for our Canadian clients updated for Monday, May 3. Check the VR List below for Canadian Positive and Negative Volume Reversals ™.
The Canadian market outperformed on Friday, actually posting a small gain. In fact, the TSE had large gains for most of the trading session, but a sharp decline in the last half hour eliminated most of those gains. The TSE posted a gain of 10.38 or 0.09% on Friday to close at 12210.70. Earlier in the session, the TSE was up 107.81 or 0.88% reaching 12,308.13, but shy of last Tuesday's 12,321.76 bull market high. Come on TSE, break out!
Canada's economy expanded for a sixth consecutive month in February, led by manufacturing and spending related to the Vancouver Winter Olympics. Gross domestic product increased 0.3 percent from January, Statistics Canada said in Ottawa. The result matched expectations.
Canada reported a C$902 million ($892 million) deficit in February, compared with a surplus a year earlier, on increased spending for unemployment benefits. Program spending rose 15.1 percent in February from a year earlier to C$19 billion, led by a 35 percent increase in employment insurance benefits. Total spending in the month was 13.1 percent higher than a year earlier. Revenue increased 3.8 percent in February from the prior year to C$20.4 billion, on a 31 percent jump in corporate income taxes. The surge in corporate income taxes reflects a decline in refunds, the finance department said.
Fairfax Financial Holdings reported a profit of US$290.2 million in its latest quarter, compared with a loss a year ago, helped by strong investment gains. FFH.TO gained 4.65%.
Forestry company Domtar said it booked a US$58-million profit during the first quarter, reversing a year-earlier loss on price increases and higher pulp, paper and wood shipments. UFX.TO fell 5.54%.
Cogeco said it will pay $80 million cash to buy the Quebec radio stations currently owned by Corus Entertainment. The 11 Corus stations are in several cities throughout the province, including four in Montreal, two in Quebec and two in Sherbrooke. CGO.TO rallied 3.31% and CJR-B.TO slipped 0.05%.
Energy 149.27 -0.57
Financials 187.67 -1.28
Health Care 38.50 +0.37
Industrials 100.84 -1.54
Information Technology 29.75 -0.71
Metals & Mining 1,043.75 -13.35
Telecommunications 83.44 -0.31
Utilities 192.72 +1.47
Resistance 12,322, 12,375, 12,875, 12,968, 13,771, 13,875, 13,983, 14,157. Support is 12,075, 11,957, 11,909, 11,630, 11,420, 10,990, 10,800, 10,500, 10,384, 9500, 9300, 9140.
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TSE Venture:
The rally in metal prices on Friday lifted the Venture and it was able to close very near the day's high. The TSE Venture gained 13.83 or 0.83% to finish at 1673.80. We need to see the TSE Venture above the Aril 12 bull market high (1691.10)!
Resistance is 1678, 1691, 1730, 1780, 1830. Support is 1631, 1548, 1530, 1500, 1429, 1403, 1383.
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THE CANADIAN DOLLAR (using the FXC Exchange Traded Fund):
The Canadian Dollar fell sharply Friday as US economic data beat out Canadian data on Friday. FXC declined 1.01 to 98.00. The Canadian Dollar suffered its biggest weekly drop since January. Volume was negative on Friday indicating we may have seen an important short-term trading top. There is technical risk for a retracement back to the 95.00-97.00 range in my work.
Resistance is 100.00, 102.00, 110.00. Support is 96.90, 96.37, 95.89, 93.28, 92.46, 92.01, 91.00, 89.75, and 85.18.
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My 'Annual Forecast Model' (VR Forecaster Report) is now posted on the VRtrader.com website and covers cyclical projections for the Dow Industrials, the TSX, Gold, Crude Oil, Ten Year Interest Rate Yields and the US Dollar Index. The Model has been published since 1987 and has garnered a respectable following among traders and investors seeking an overall 'timing' tool for the major markets. Remember, there is no price too high for good information!
Here is the link:
https://www.vrtrader...cribe/index.asp
If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to call me and leave a voice mail message at 928-282-1275 or email me at mark.vrtrader@gmail.com.
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TIMER DIGEST signals for Stocks, Gold and Bonds are available to Platinum subscribers on the Home Page. TIMER DIGEST is an independent ranking service and newsletter. VRtrader.com, Inc. and TIMER DIGEST have no affiliation.
TIMER DIGEST has named Mark Leibovit of VRTrader.com 'TIMER OF THE YEAR' for 2006 and was named the #2 Timer for 2007.
As of January 25, 2010, TIMER DIGEST has named Mark Leibovit the 7th Market Timer for the 5 year period ending 12/31/09; the 3rd Market Timer for the 8 year period ending 12/31/09 and the #2 Market Timer for the 10 year period ending 12/31/09.
As of January 25, 2009, TIMER DIGEST also named Mark Leibovit the #2 Gold Timer for the 10 year period ending 12/31/09!
More kudos - Mark Leibovit was named the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 10 year period ending in 2007; the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 3 year period ending in 2007; the #1 Intermediate Market Timer for the 8 year period ending in 2007; and the #8 Intermediate Market Timer for the 5 year period ending in 2007. NO OTHER ANALYST SURVEYED APPEARED IN ALL FOUR CATEGORIES FOR INTERMEDIATE MARKET TIMING AS PUBLISHED IN TIMER DIGEST JANUARY 28, 2008!
Mark Leibovit was also named the #1 Gold Timer for the one-year period ending March 25, 2008. Most recently, from: 12/26/08 to: 03/27/2009, he is ranked in the #5 position for 3 month return.
Current TIMER DIGEST signals for stocks:
'Buy' signal March 4, 2009.
'Sell' signal May 27, 2009.
'Buy' signal July 21, 2009.
'Sell' signal September 2, 2009.
'Buy' signal September 3, 2009.
'Sell' signal October 15, 2009.
'Buy' signal November 13, 2009.
'Sell' signal November 30, 2009.
'Buy' signal December 1, 2009.
'Sell' signal January 27, 2010.
'Buy' signal February 12, 2010.
'Sell' signal April 16, 2010.
'Buy' signal April 23, 2010.
Current TIMER DIGEST signals for Gold:
'Sell' signal November 30, 2009.
'Buy' signal December 1, 2009.
'Sell' signal January 27, 2010.
'Buy' signal February 12, 2010.
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TGLDX and GGN are the only names on that list at this time. Go to the Watchlist on the www.vrtrader.com home page and enter your username and password when prompted.
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DAILY VR LIST:
Editors note: The Daily VR List here is abbreviated with the full list only available to Platinum subscribers by clicking on 'Current VR List' on the Home Page of VRtrader.com.
Canadian shares are listed at the bottom of each section with the title: 'XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX'.
Silver subscribers who find this useful should upgrade to Platinum where you can pull down VR charts for many securities and watch the patterns unfold for yourself. There is no technical service on the planet that posts Positive and Negative VR! Why? Because they are proprietary to VRtrader.com!
How do you use this list?
Volume Reversals ™ are buy and sell triggers and are traders find them particularly useful, especially coming off market extremes as an indication of a change of direction. Use the VRs in conjunction with your other technical indicators and you've added a unique technical tool to your arsenal.
To see a visual representation of Volume Reversals ™, please go our Current Portfolio section and click on any recommended stock. Or, if you would like to get a VR Chart for a specific symbol, please click here. Please note that the list of symbols available is limited at this time.
VOLUME REVERSALS FOR FRIDAY, APRIL 30:
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POSITIVE VRs
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XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX Canadian Stocks
BH BRAINHUNTER INC
FTS FORTIS INC
FTT FINNING INTERNATIONAL
HJD.UN HORIZONS BETAPRO MSCI
HR.UN H&R REAL ESTATE INVES
HUC.UN Horizons Beta Pro Crde Oil ETF
MG.A MAGNA INTERNATIONAL I CL A
PAA.UN PAN AMERICAN SILVER
PJC.A JEAN COUTU GROUP INC CL A
PZG.UN PARAMOUNT GOLD & SILVER
RIM RESEARCH IN MOTION LI
SJR.B SHAW COMMUNICATIONS I CL B
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U.S. STOCKS:
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AEROSPACE/DEFENSE Aerospace/Defense Products & S
SIF Sifco Industries Inc
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Parts
CAAS China Automotive Systems Inc
LEA Lear Corp
BANKING Foreign Regional Banks
BPOP Popular Inc
BANKING Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks
ABCB Abc Bancorp
CBKN Capital Bank Corp Rlghnc
BANKING Regional - Pacific Banks
BOH Bank of Hawaii Corp
CWBC Community West Bancshrs
BANKING Regional - Southwest Banks
QCRH Qcr Hldgs Inc
BANKING Savings & Loans
COLB Columbia Banking System
CSBC Citizens South Banking Corp
CHEMICALS Specialty Chemicals
MEOH Methanex Corporation
WPZ Williams Partners LP
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Based Systems
MXWL Maxwell Technologies Inc
COMPUTER HARDWARE Networking & Communication Dev
OCNW Occam Networks Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Application Software
INTU Intuit Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Business Software & Services
COGT Cogent Systems
CSGP Costar Group Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Information Technology Service
CBR Ciber Inc
NCIT NCI Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Multimedia & Graphics Software
GLUU Glu Mobile Inc
MMUS MakeMusic Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Toys & Games
LF Leapfrog Enterprises Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Rubber & Plastics
SEH Spartech Corp
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Textile - Apparel Clothing
MFB Maidenform Inc
TRLG True Religion Apparel Inc
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Textile - Apparel Footwear & A
HLYS Heelys Inc
SHOO Steven Madden Ltd
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Rental & Leasing Services
ELRC Electro Rent Corp
TAL TAL International Group Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Research Services
SNMX Senomyx Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Staffing & Outsourcing Service
CDI Cdi Corp
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Technical Services
TTEK Tetra Tech Inc
DRUGS Biotechnology
AGEN Antigenics Incorporated
BIIB Biogen Idec Inc
DRUGS Drug Delivery
FLML Flamel Technologies Sa
PPCO Penwest Pharmacutical
DRUGS Drug Manufacturers - Major
NVS Novartis Ag Ads
RIGL Rigel Pharmaceuticals Inc
DRUGS Drug Manufacturers - Other
ADLR Adolor Corporation
AGN Allergan Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Broad Line
OPXT Opnext Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Integrated Cir
EMKR Emcore Corporation
IPGP Ipg Photonics Corp
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Specialized
AUTH Authentec Inc
MPWR Monolithic Power Systems
ENERGY Independent Oil & Gas
BRY Berry Petroleum Co Cl A
KAZ Bmb Munai Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Debt
CSP American Strat Inc Pt 3
EIV Eaton Vance Insured Muni Bd Ii
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Equity
ADF Acm Managed Dollar In Fd
AIA iShares S&P Asia 50 Index Fund
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Foreign
GIM Templeton Global Income Del
TDF Templeton Dragon Fund
FINANCIAL SERVICES Credit Services
CCRT Compucredit Corporation
PLUS Eplus Incorporated
FINANCIAL SERVICES Diversified Investments
DKI MS Structured Asset
SJT San Juan Basin Roy Tr
FINANCIAL SERVICES Investment Brokerage - Nationa
IBKR Interactive Brokers Group Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Investment Brokerage - Regiona
ITG Investment Technology
LAB Labranche & Co Inc
INSURANCE Life Insurance
MET Metlife Inc
INSURANCE Property & Casualty Insurance
BWINB Baldwin & Lyons Inc Cl B
CRMH CRM Holdings Ltd
INTERNET Internet Software & Services
INAP Internap Network Svcs Cp
UBET Youbet.Com Inc
LEISURE Resorts & Casinos
WOLF Great Wolf Resorts
LEISURE Restaurants
NATH Nathan's Famous Inc
MANUFACTURING Diversified Machinery
MX Metso Corp
PMFG Peerless Manufacturing
MANUFACTURING Textile Manufacturing
AIN Albany International A
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION General Contractors
EME Emcor Group Inc
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Residential Construction
MHO M/i Homes Inc
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Waste Management
ECOL American Ecology Corp
RSG Republic Services Inc
MEDIA Advertising Services
VCLK Valueclick Inc
MEDIA Broadcasting - Radio
CJR Corus Entertainment Cl B
MEDIA Marketing Services
HHS Harte-Hanks Inc
METALS & MINING Gold
BAA Banro Corporation
METALS & MINING Industrial Metals & Minerals
CCJ Cameco Corp
USU Usec Inc
METALS & MINING Steel & Iron
USAP Universal Stain & Alloy
REAL ESTATE Mortgage Investment
IOT Income Opportun Rlty Inv
VRTA Vestin Realty Mortgage I Inc
REAL ESTATE REIT - Diversified/Industrial
AHT Ashford Hospitality Tr Inc
CT Capital Trust Inc Md
SPECIALTY RETAIL Apparel Stores
CACH Cache Inc
CTRN Citi Trends Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Sporting Goods Stores
HIBB Hibbett Sporting Goods
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Diversified Communication Serv
MTSL Mer Telemanagement Sltns
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Telecom Services - Foreign
IIT Indonesian Satellite Cp
TNE Tele Norte Leste Partic
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Wireless Communications
AMOV America Movil Sa De Dv
TKC Turkcell Iletisim Hzmt As New
TRANSPORTATION Major Airlines
DAL Delta Air Lines Inc
TRANSPORTATION Shipping
BHO B&H Ocean Carriers Ltd
CPLP Capital Product Partners L.P.
UTILITIES Diversified Utilities
ED Consolidated Edison Inc
VVC Vectren Corporation
UTILITIES Electric Utilities
EDN Empresa Distribuildora Comer
ITC ITC Holdings Corp
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NEGATIVE VRs
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XXX CANADIAN STOCKS XXX Canadian Stocks
AET.UN ARC ENERGY TRUST
CM.UN CANAIDAN IMPERIAL BANK OF COMM
CMW.UN CLAYMORE S&P/TSX GLOB MINING
CRU CREW GOLD CORP
IPL.UN INTER PIPELINE FUND C
POW POWER CORPORATION OF
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U.S. STOCKS:
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AEROSPACE/DEFENSE Aerospace/Defense Major Dive
NPO Enpro Industries Inc
AEROSPACE/DEFENSE Aerospace/Defense Products & S
DCO Ducommun Inc
AUTOMOTIVE Auto Parts
AXL American Axle & Manufact
SRI Stoneridge Inc
AUTOMOTIVE Trucks & Other Vehicles
FSS Federal Signal Corp
BANKING Foreign Regional Banks
BAP Credicorp Ltd
EUBK Eurobancshares Inc
BANKING Money Center Banks
BAC Bank Of America Corp
BCS Barclays Plc Adr
BANKING Regional - Mid-Atlantic Banks
AMNB American Natl Bnkshrs Va
BKOR Bank Of Oak Ridge
BANKING Regional - Midwest Banks
BUSE First Busey Corp Cl A
FBIZ First Business Financial Servi
BANKING Regional - Northeast Banks
BNCL Beneficial Mutual Bancorp Inc
BPFH Boston Private Fincl Hld
BANKING Regional - Pacific Banks
HTBK Heritage Commerce Corp
PMBC Pacific Mercantile Bncrp
BANKING Regional - Southeast Banks
CTBI Community Trust Bncp Inc
HBCP Home Bancorp Inc.
CHEMICALS Chemicals - Major Diversified
APD Air Products & Chemicals
DOW Dow Chemical Co
CHEMICALS Specialty Chemicals
ACET Aceto Corp
FUL H.b. Fuller Co
CHEMICALS Synthetics
CE Celanese
IPHS Innophos Hldngs Inc
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Based Systems
ADPT Adaptec Inc
COMPUTER HARDWARE Computer Peripherals
RSYS Radisys Corporation
COMPUTER HARDWARE Data Storage Devices
EMC Emc Corp
IMN Imation Corp
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Business Software & Services
CSGS Csg Systems Internat Inc
CYBS Cybersource Corporation
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Multimedia & Graphics Software
BBBB Blackboard
THQI Thq Inc
COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES Technical & System Software
PMTC Parametric Technology Cp
VMW Vmware Inc
CONGLOMERATES Conglomerates
MMM 3m Company
CONSUMER DURABLES Appliances
WHR Whirlpool Corp
CONSUMER DURABLES Business Equipment
KBALB Kimball Internat B
KNL Knoll Inc
CONSUMER DURABLES Electronic Equipment
CSCD Cascade Microtech
HIT Hitachi Ltd
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Packaging & Containers
BMS Bemis Co Inc
GPK Graphic Packaging Intl
CONSUMER NON-DURABLES Rubber & Plastics
BDG Bandag Inc
JAH Jarden Corp
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Education & Training Services
CPLA Capella Education Company
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Personal Services
AMIE Ambassadors Internat Inc
LONG Elong Inc
DIVERSIFIED SERVICES Technical Services
VSEC Vse Corp
DRUGS Biotechnology
AMGN Amgen Inc
DYAX Dyax Corporation
DRUGS Drug Related Products
MTEX Mannatech Inc
ELECTRONICS Diversified Electronics
APH Amphenol Corp
IVAC Intevac Inc
ELECTRONICS Printed Circuit Boards
CLS Celestica Inc
JBL Jabil Circuit Inc
ELECTRONICS Scientific & Technical Instrum
AMOT Allied Motion Tech Inc
CLDA Clinical Data Inc
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Broad Line
CY Cypress Semiconductor Cp
INTC Intel Corp
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Integrated Cir
ATHR Atheros Communications Inc
EXAR Exar Corp
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor - Specialized
LLTC Linear Technology Corp
NVDA Nvidia Corporation
ELECTRONICS Semiconductor Equipment & Mate
AEHR Aehr Test Systems
ASYS Amtech Systems Inc
ENERGY Major Integrated Oil & Gas
COP Conocophillips
ENERGY Oil & Gas Drilling & Explorati
PGH Pengrowth Energy Trust
VNR Vanguard Natural Resources` LL
ENERGY Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
CGV Cgg Veritas
EXLP Exterran Partners Lp
ENERGY Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
ASH Ashland Inc
EPE Enterprise Group Holdings LP
FINANCIAL SERVICES Asset Management
AMP Ameriprise Financial Inc
FIG Fortress Investment Group Llc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Debt
ADRA BLDRS Asia 50 ADR Index Fund E
ADX Adams Express Co
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Equity
ACWX iShares MSCI ACWI ex US Index
BOS Poershares Base Metals Short
FINANCIAL SERVICES Closed End Fund - Foreign
APB Asia Pacific Fund Inc
DKA WisdomTree International Energ
FINANCIAL SERVICES Investment Brokerage - Nationa
GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc
FINANCIAL SERVICES Investment Brokerage - Regiona
BLK Blackrock Incorporated
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Brewers
CU Compania Cervecerias Uni
FOOD & BEVERAGE Beverages - Soft Drinks
COKE Coca Cola Bottling Con
COT Cott Corporation
FOOD & BEVERAGE Meat Products
SAFM Sanderson Farms Inc
TSN Tyson Foods Inc
FOOD & BEVERAGE Processed & Packaged Goods
AIPC American Italian Pasta Co
CPO Corn Products Intl Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Health Care Plans
AET Aetna Inc New
CI Cigna Corp
HEALTH SERVICES Home Health Care
AHCI Allied Healthcare Intl Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Long-Term Care Facilities
ALC Assisted Living Concepts Inc.
SUNH Sun Healthcare Group Inc
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Appliances & Equipment
CYNO Cynosure Inc
HRT Arrhythmia Research Tech
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Laboratories & Researc
PMD Psychemedics Corp
HEALTH SERVICES Medical Practitioners
GTIV Gentiva Health Svcs
LCAV Lca-vision New
HEALTH SERVICES Specialized Health Services
BIOS BioScrip Inc
MDZ Mds Incorporated
INSURANCE Property & Casualty Insurance
INDM United America Indemnity Ltd
IPCC Infinity Property & Casualty
INTERNET Internet Service Providers
DGI Digital Globe Inc.
GIGM Gigamedia Limited
LEISURE Lodging
CHH Choice Hotels Internat
MCS Marcus Corporation
MANUFACTURING Farm & Construction Machinery
CAE Cascade Corp
NC Nacco Industries Inc A
MANUFACTURING Industrial Electrical Equipmen
ITT Itt Industries Inc In
LFUS Littelfuse Inc
MANUFACTURING Machine Tools & Accessories
RBC Regal-Beloit Corp
MANUFACTURING Metal Fabrication
GHM Graham Corp
MANUFACTURING Small Tools & Accessories
SWK Stanley Worksthe
MATERIALS & CONSTRUCTION Heavy Construction
FWLT Foster Wheeler Ltd
INSU Insituform Technols Cl A
MEDIA Movie Production
CNK Cinemark Holdings Inc
MEDIA Publishing - Books
SCHL Scholastic Corp
METALS & MINING Aluminum
AA Alcoa Inc
METALS & MINING Gold
EGI Entree Gold Inc
FNX Fnx Mining Company Inc
METALS & MINING Nonmetallic Mineral Mining
AHGP Alliance Holdings GP LP
BQI Oilsands Quest Inc
METALS & MINING Steel & Iron
FRD Friedman Industries Inc
MTL Mechel Steel Group
REAL ESTATE Property Management/Developmen
H Realogy Corp
JOE Saint Joe Company
REAL ESTATE REIT - Healthcare Facilities
LTC Ltc Properties Inc
NHR National Hlth Realty Inc
REAL ESTATE REIT - Office
BDN Brandywine Realty Trust
LSE Capital Lease Fundings Inc
REAL ESTATE REIT - Residential
ELS Equity Lifestyle Properties
REAL ESTATE REIT - Retail
O Realty Income Corp
RETAIL Catalog & Mail Order Houses
GAIA Gaiam Incorporated Cl A
HSNI HSN` Inc.
RETAIL Home Improvement Stores
BLDR Builders FirstSource Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Apparel Stores
BCF Burlington Coat Fac Whse
GCO Genesco Inc
SPECIALTY RETAIL Sporting Goods Stores
BGFV Big 5 Sporting Goods Corp
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Communication Equipment
ELMG Ems Technologies Inc
INFN Infinera Corporation
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Long Distance Carriers
GNCMA General Communications A
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Processing Systems & Products
VII Vicon Industries Inc
TELECOMMUNICATIONS Telecom Services - Domestic
BCE Bce Inc
HTCO Hickory Tech Corp
TRANSPORTATION Air Delivery & Freight Service
SINO Sino-Global Shipping America`
TRANSPORTATION Railroads
CNI Canadian Natl Railway
GBX Greenbrier Companies Inc
TRANSPORTATION Regional Airlines
ALK Alaska Air Group Inc
TRANSPORTATION Trucking
QLTY Quality Distribution
UACL Universal Truckload Srvcs
UTILITIES Diversified Utilities
AEE Ameren Corp
MDU Mdu Resources Group Inc
UTILITIES Electric Utilities
CV Central Vermont Pub Svc
DTE Dte Energy Co
WHOLESALE Auto Parts Wholesale
GPC Genuine Parts Co
WHOLESALE Building Materials Wholesale
IBI Interline Brands
JCTCF Jewett-Cameron Trad Co
WHOLESALE Computers Wholesale
EFII Electronics For Imaging
---------------------------------------------
What is our true national debt?
http://www.truthin08.org/
---------------------------------------------
I will be speaking at the Money Show in Las Vegas, May 10-13 at Caesar's Palace. The link to the event is below:
http://www.moneyshow...sp?scode=017336
---------------------------------------------
Costly IRS Mandate Slipped into Health Bill
Most people know about the individual mandate in the new health care bill, but the bill contained another mandate that could be far more costly.
A few wording changes to the tax code's section 6041 regarding 1099 reporting were slipped into the 2000-page health legislation. The changes will force millions of businesses to issue hundreds of millions, perhaps billions, of additional IRS Form 1099s every year. It appears to be a costly, anti-business nightmare.
Under current law, businesses are required to issue 1099s in a limited set of situations, such as when paying outside consultants. The health care bill includes a vast expansion in this information reporting requirement in an attempt to raise revenue for an increasingly rapacious Congress.
In a recent summary, tax information firm RIA notes the types of transactions covered by the new 1099 rules:
The 2010 Health Care Act adds "amounts in consideration for property" (Code Sec. 6041(a) as amended by 2010 Health Care Act §9006(
(1)) and "gross proceeds" (Code Sec. 6041(a) as amended by 2010 Health Care Act §9006((2)) to the pre-2010 Health Care Act categories of payments for which an information return to IRS will be required if the $600 aggregate payment threshold is met in a tax year for any one payee. Thus, Congress says that for payments made after 2011, the term "payments" includes gross proceeds paid in consideration for property or services. Basically, businesses will have to issue 1099s whenever they do more than $600 of business with another entity in a year. For the $14 trillion U.S. economy, that's a hell of a lot of 1099s. When a business buys a $1,000 used car, it will have to gather information on the seller and mail 1099s to the seller and the IRS. When a small shop owner pays her rent, she will have to send a 1099 to the landlord and IRS. Recipients of the vast flood of these forms will have to match them with existing accounting records. There will be huge numbers of errors and mismatches, which will probably generate many costly battles with the IRS.
Tax CPA Chris Hesse of LeMaster Daniels tells me:
Under the health legislation, the IRS could be receiving billions of more documents. Under current law, businesses send Forms 1099 for payments of rent, interest, dividends, and non-employee services when such payments are to entities other than corporations. Under the new law, businesses will be required to send a 1099 to other businesses for virtually all purchases. And for the first time, 1099s are to be sent to corporations. This is a huge new imposition on American business, costing the private economy much more than any additional tax that the IRS might collect as a result.
There appears to have been little discussion before this damaging mandate was slipped into the health bill and rammed through Congress, but a few business groups did raise concerns. Here's what the Air Conditioner Contractors of America said:
The House bill would extend the Form 1099 filing requirement to ALL vendors (including corporate) to which they pay more than $600 annually for services or property. Consider all the payments a small business makes in the course of business, paying for things such as computers, software, office supplies, and fuel to services, including janitorial services, coffee services, and package delivery services.
In order to file all these 1099s, you'll need to collect the necessary information from all your service providers. In order to comply with the law, you would have to get a Taxpayer Information Number or TIN from the business. If the vendor does not supply you with a TIN, you are obligated to withhold on your payments.
Private transactions are the core of a market economy, and the source of America's growth and prosperity. Now the federal government is imposing a vast new web of red tape on perhaps billions of these growth-generating private exchanges.
For what purpose? So the spendthrift Congress can shake a few extra bucks out of private industry? The business sector is the generator of America's high living standards, but most federal legislators just see it as a kitty to be raided or a cow to be milked dry.
I'm stunned that there wasn't a broader debate before such a costly mandate was enacted. If it goes into effect, it will waste vast quantities of human effort in filling out forms, reworking computer systems, collecting and organizing data, and fighting the IRS. The struggling American economy can't afford anymore suffocating tax regulations. This mandate is a giant deadweight loss. It should be repealed.
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