Down for a 1st wave from the all-time-highs to the low of 2002, up to this year's high for a 2nd wave.
Down to this past March's low for a 1st wave, up to this month's high for a 2nd wave.
Now we've gone down again, and it looks impulsive to me; it looks like the larger trend is down, and the upward moves are corrective. We may bounce higher here, correcting the steep decline of this past week, but once again it looks like a very low-risk sell in the stock indices, with the possibility of catching a big move down; that being the awe-inspiring 3rd wave.
Though it doesn't have the room to decline like the Dow, S&P, etc., if you want to see an "ugly" chart, look at a monthly scan of the NASDAQ.
Short-term, going above this week's highs makes the above bearish analysis wrong. Intermediate-term, breaking above this weeks' highs puts it in doubt, and new highs on the year blasts it to smithereens.
Long-term, I cannot believe we are in a bull market -- that the post 2000 bear ended in 2002. New all-time-highs in the DJIA would prove me wrong, and that's certainly not impossible. It's not all that far above current levels.
Meanwhile, I would bet heavily that we see a decline of 1200 or 1400 Dow points before we see an equivalent rally.
Best,
Doug
Third wave down to come?
Started by
PorkLoin
, Apr 30 2004 11:17 AM
2 replies to this topic
#2
hiker
-
- TT Member*
-
- 12,118 posts
independent trader
Posted 30 April 2004 - 11:23 AM
appreciate your thoughts, Doug.
#3
PorkLoin
-
- TT Member*
-
- 2,194 posts
Member
Posted 30 April 2004 - 11:44 PM
Thank You, Hiker.
There are only a few times per year, or decade, or even within a lifetime when things really line up. The big rally into 2000 was one of them -- if one perceived the possible reward for buying. Same for the crash that followed, if one was short.
I totally missed out on the last couple years of that rally. Once we got above the valuations that topped the market in 1929 and 1987, I wasn't really hearing bullish arguments. Yet going down from the 2000 high, there was good money to be made if one sold at the end of upward corrections, and I nailed one, to the day, September 6, 2000.
Same for other intermediate-term tops going down to the 2002 low. Good times to sell. My last good one was shorting in May 2002, covering in early October. Then came the rally up from March 2 (I think) 2003. It kept going, and going.... And in May, July, November, and one other time (again, I think) I prematurely counted an "upward correction" complete. So, I was wrong, wrong, wrong, and could be wrong again.
This time, though, the market is not just "looking like a top;" it's already topped and looks like the prevailing trend is now down, with the moves up being against the trend. Maybe, maybe not -- noting but hindsight is sure.
Going back to the lows in 2002, and 2003, we did not have the low stock valuations and week-upon-week of bearish sentiment that accompanied past major, long-term lows; and the wave count as I see it also is saying that the bear from 2000 is not done. If so, and if we ended a corrective move up from 2002 earlier this year, the downside could be awesome ahead.
One cool chart is the Russell -- RUT.X This baby just topped recently, made five nice waves down, bounced correctively, and now is plunging. We're almost to the March lows but haven't broken them yet. There's always doubt, but thins just may be one of those times when things are really lined up.
Best,
Doug
There are only a few times per year, or decade, or even within a lifetime when things really line up. The big rally into 2000 was one of them -- if one perceived the possible reward for buying. Same for the crash that followed, if one was short.
I totally missed out on the last couple years of that rally. Once we got above the valuations that topped the market in 1929 and 1987, I wasn't really hearing bullish arguments. Yet going down from the 2000 high, there was good money to be made if one sold at the end of upward corrections, and I nailed one, to the day, September 6, 2000.
Same for other intermediate-term tops going down to the 2002 low. Good times to sell. My last good one was shorting in May 2002, covering in early October. Then came the rally up from March 2 (I think) 2003. It kept going, and going.... And in May, July, November, and one other time (again, I think) I prematurely counted an "upward correction" complete. So, I was wrong, wrong, wrong, and could be wrong again.
This time, though, the market is not just "looking like a top;" it's already topped and looks like the prevailing trend is now down, with the moves up being against the trend. Maybe, maybe not -- noting but hindsight is sure.
Going back to the lows in 2002, and 2003, we did not have the low stock valuations and week-upon-week of bearish sentiment that accompanied past major, long-term lows; and the wave count as I see it also is saying that the bear from 2000 is not done. If so, and if we ended a corrective move up from 2002 earlier this year, the downside could be awesome ahead.
One cool chart is the Russell -- RUT.X This baby just topped recently, made five nice waves down, bounced correctively, and now is plunging. We're almost to the March lows but haven't broken them yet. There's always doubt, but thins just may be one of those times when things are really lined up.
Best,
Doug
