19 replies to this topic

[TechMan]

Just a quick comment while I’m still campaigning for my friend in California… I think there’s way too much bearishness all over the place, from media to individual traders. For one thing, on Friday, the 21-month (420 days) SMA had just made a new high since it moved into the positive territory on June 8, 2010. And, that was the first time it had ever stuck its head above water in almost 2 years, since it dived into the negative territory on 6-16-2008. For another thing, Intel (INTC) had just had a bullish Falling Wedge Breakout on huge surge of volume. Incidentally, $21 appears to be a good long entry point. INTC had led the way down in April (about 2 weeks ahead of the SPX), and it may be leading the way up by being one of the 1st ones to break out of the ubiquitous Falling Wedge pattern. BTW, the Head & Shoulders top that had been talked about was but a head fake. The breakdown was invalidated by lower volume than the Head. This might’ve attributed to the overall market sentiment improvement last week. And, finally, the Open Interests of the VIX July 2010 options that are due to expire on Wednesday appear to be quite bullish as the Put volume remains overwhelmingly higher than the Call volume. And, that’s it for me… I’ll try to check back from time to time but not sure how often. Have a great trading week ahead!

[goldswinger]

Thanks Techman, tought you left the board, but your post is intriguing given everything else on the bearish side: - rising FXY/FXE - about to rise $USD - credit spreads widenning beyond 2008 numbers - copper breaking uptrend line - momentum indicators on daily and 60 mins heading down - $VIX rising - Hungary about to tank again..with its Euro implications but Intel is rising.......mmmmhhh! BTW, GS has also broken its downtrend line and it also leads....... confused, GS.

Edited by goldswinger, 18 July 2010 - 03:36 PM.

[vitaminm]

INTC...S@19-20 R@21-22

[qqqqtrdr]

Techman: I'm in QID currently, but I overall I agree tech is good growth rate overall. I'm in worried a little bit about a global slowdown, and it's effects on the growth rate of consumer electronics.. Most of Intel's growth rate over the last year was due to upgrades to Windows 7 or new Apple Computers.. Without growth in the job market, I see business spending slowing down for the rest of the year which could put pressure on Tech.... Barry

[milbank]

It's great to see you posting TechMan. Don't be a stranger, I miss your charts and commentary. I agree with you in the IT although I'm positioned short (SDS) for tomorrow and may add on a bounce (TZA) before going flat by the end of the day. We shall see if my scenario works out or I have to abort the whole deal.

[Data]

I don't see converging lines when you draw them from the April-May peak. Too many of the troughs and peaks don't touch the lines in the above charts. Everybody sees H&S and wedges everywhere. I see a pattern similar to 2007 and 2008 with sucession of three lower peaks before the last drop and the Bearish Evening Star on the Monthly charts signaling the reversal.

Three Peaks and a Stumble

The chart pattern sports three peaks, each successive one below the last. When price closes below the lowest valley between the three peaks, it confirms the three falling peaks chart pattern as a valid one.

The first sign of a trend change from up to down begins with a lower peak, so this chart pattern can be used as an indicator of the start of a bear trend either in an individual stock or the entire market (when it occurs in an index or average). Unfortunately, waiting for the pattern to confirm before exiting a position may mean a loss or large profit give-back, so its use as a bear market indicator is not recommended. Nevertheless, if the pattern appears, it should signal to avoid long positions.

http://www.thepatternsite.com/3fp.html

Edited by Data, 18 July 2010 - 05:37 PM.

[dTraderB]

Hey Techman, welcome back!

I am bullish INTC, MSFT, and EMC but I think there is still some downside in this move, maybe INTC 20.50 low. I am looking to buy INTC 20 calls. May buy MSFT calls before earnings. Let's see how it goes tomorrow when I expect a ST bottom.

See here for an interesting article on bullishness in PC stocks. This guy has made some good calls.

Technology Trader | SATURDAY, JULY 17, 2010
Intel's Good News Is Only the Start for PC Profits
By ERIC J. SAVITZ
Record quarter sets stage for good profit reports from Microsoft and even Dell. Results from IBM, Juniper Networks and EMC should be strong, too.

http://online.barron...4185674342.html

[TechMan]

It's great to see you posting TechMan. Don't be a stranger, I miss your charts and commentary.
I agree with you in the IT although I'm positioned short (SDS) for tomorrow and may add on a bounce (TZA) before going flat by the end of the day. We shall see if my scenario works out or I have to abort the whole deal.

Much obliged, Bud.

Good luck with your trades although I'd take the opposite approach and go long on the dip tomorrow.

[tva995]

And, finally, the Open Interests of the VIX July 2010 options that are due to expire on Wednesday appear to be quite bullish as the Put volume remains overwhelmingly higher than the Call volume. doesn't higher put volume on vix indicate bullishness and is therefore a contrary indicator???

[TechMan]

Techman:

I'm in QID currently, but I overall I agree tech is good growth rate overall. I'm in worried a little bit about a global slowdown, and it's effects on the growth rate of consumer electronics.. Most of Intel's growth rate over the last year was due to upgrades to Windows 7 or new Apple Computers.. Without growth in the job market, I see business spending slowing down for the rest of the year which could put pressure on Tech....

Barry

Hey Barry - Worldwide Semi sales had gone up over 48% in May, comparing to the same month last year. On the monthly basis, it had surpassed the pre "Great Recession" highs. My source in China tole me that they couldn't find enough workers to make the products. As you know semiconductors are almost in everything nowadays. China's slowing down to 10.3%? They couldn't have enough luxury goods in stock for affluent Chinese consumers.

Sure, I'm as worried, if not more than, everyone else, but there's 90%+ that are employed. There are more cars on the road, more shoppers in malls, and more diners in restaurants than 2008. I missed those slow days when I could get the best tables at nice restaurants and have work done for cheap...