108 replies to this topic

[stocks]

If you don't take delivery you risk losing it all

So, in conclusion, the price of (paper) gold will plummet!

That's right. At some point in the future, after the price of gold rockets upward, it will fall like a box of rocks! And right about that time you'll see more of Robert Prechter on CNBC than you ever thought was possible.

But here's the challenge. When the price of gold falls to $200 per ounce, try and get some physical. I'm sure that Kitco will sell you some from their pooled account. And GLD will be standing ready to sell you a share at $20. But just try to take delivery. I think you'll find it will be impossible at that point.

And that's why you've got to take delivery NOW, at the current "high" price of $1,300. Don't wait for the dip. Oh, yeah, the big dip is definitely coming. A **BIG** "correction." But will there be any physical available? Perhaps at $1,200 if you're really lucky. At $200? No way.


http://fofoa.blogspo...eshine-boy.html

[dougie]

Dollar bears are at 97% and gold bulls at 98% does that mean we cant go higher here? Nope but a quick smash down wont surprise either, throw some young leveraged riders to the mud

[dharma]

If you don't take delivery you risk losing it all

So, in conclusion, the price of (paper) gold will plummet!

That's right. At some point in the future, after the price of gold rockets upward, it will fall like a box of rocks! And right about that time you'll see more of Robert Prechter on CNBC than you ever thought was possible.

But here's the challenge. When the price of gold falls to $200 per ounce, try and get some physical. I'm sure that Kitco will sell you some from their pooled account. And GLD will be standing ready to sell you a share at $20. But just try to take delivery. I think you'll find it will be impossible at that point.

And that's why you've got to take delivery NOW, at the current "high" price of $1,300. Don't wait for the dip. Oh, yeah, the big dip is definitely coming. A **BIG** "correction." But will there be any physical available? Perhaps at $1,200 if you're really lucky. At $200? No way.


http://fofoa.blogspo...eshine-boy.html

to make fiat valuable, they will back it w/gold. and just like last time, @some point another nixon will appear to do the bidding of the banksters
it will over shoot, for sure. we are phase 3 from that, ie years
dharma

[dharma]

did i mention , when silver leads, it is indicative of a more speculative trend. gold is held by cbs. silver, to my knowledge, is not. when we are in the final topping pattern , you will want to sell your silver 1st. there were many locked limit down days. this trend is a mini version of what is to come. 1392 is the next resistance. the angle of ascent is unsustainable, but that is not the point. its instructive. @some #, and i dont know what that it is , the impatient public jumps in and that will lead to the end of this move. and that is the point of this move, to suck as many impatient watchers into being participants. then you have fodder for the decline. because they will cough it up if the broads dont top w/the metal, then it is possible that the miners continue catching up to the metal. if the broads top, that will not be a lucrative bet! it would be encouraging to see more folks getting short. here not one of the fobes 400 made their $$$ by shorting a bull market. but, when this leg tops, the bulls will be brought behind the woodshed. happens every time. notice how in this leg , when there are corrections, they are short in time. scary in price , but the market resumes its upside assault. this is a preview of phase 3. its how it happens. its the nature of the beast. the difference w/gold is , gold has the ultimate story. it is and has always been money. (except since 71 ) and when it gets some mo jo , there is no fever like gold fever. happens periodically. and will be happening again. sooner than you think. dharma

[tradermama]

did i mention , when silver leads, it is indicative of a more speculative trend. gold is held by cbs. silver, to my knowledge, is not. when we are in the final topping pattern , you will want to sell your silver 1st. there were many locked limit down days. this trend is a mini version of what is to come. 1392 is the next resistance. the angle of ascent is unsustainable, but that is not the point. its instructive. @some #, and i dont know what that it is , the impatient public jumps in and that will lead to the end of this move. and that is the point of this move, to suck as many impatient watchers into being participants. then you have fodder for the decline. because they will cough it up
if the broads dont top w/the metal, then it is possible that the miners continue catching up to the metal. if the broads top, that will not be a lucrative bet! it would be encouraging to see more folks getting short. here not one of the fobes 400 made their $$$ by shorting a bull market. but, when this leg tops, the bulls will be brought behind the woodshed. happens every time.
notice how in this leg , when there are corrections, they are short in time. scary in price , but the market resumes its upside assault. this is a preview of phase 3. its how it happens. its the nature of the beast. the difference w/gold is , gold has the ultimate story. it is and has always been money. (except since 71 ) and when it gets some mo jo , there is no fever like gold fever. happens periodically. and will be happening again. sooner than you think.
dharma

Thanks Dharma...great explanation..Oct 21-22 plus/minus 3 days next Merrman turn dates..and that is around the full moon fwiw...also seems this Oct 18-20th seems to be a lot of convergences with other cycle people I follow..
TM

[Ken]

dharma, are you saying that you think this may be a short-term top here for silver? Here's an interesting tidbit from Merriman. Tomorrow (Fri, Oct 15th) the Sun and the Moon are both in air signs. According to Merriman, about 1/3 of the time this coincides with a big decline in silver. Thoughts?

[dharma]

dharma, are you saying that you think this may be a short-term top here for silver?

Here's an interesting tidbit from Merriman. Tomorrow (Fri, Oct 15th) the Sun and the Moon are both in air signs. According to Merriman, about 1/3 of the time this coincides with a big decline in silver. Thoughts?

no, i was just alerting, if i hadnt already, that silver leading=speculation. yes, i am seeing topping action, but it has done this several times in this move. if i thought this was the final leg, i would be scaling out more aggressively. but there is another act(phase 3) to follow. so , i am where i want to be. when you have vertical moves, its extremely difficult to call the precise top. this move is designed to suck in the guys on the sidelines, and promptly bring them behind the woodshed. when they are all in, and that happens is very soon. my strategy from the get go, was to remain 85% long at a minimum. well man, you will be taken behind the woodshed. you betcha. and i will have some cash to do some buying. while most here will be deer in the headlights, or its going to this # and miss the buy. buying when its going up is easy. buying when its in the gutter, not so easy , but much more rewarding. this strategy has served me well and it has kept me in. remember surprises will be on the upside. the fed wants a lower dollar. i dont want to be in dollars, or at least minimum exposure.so, here i sit.
banksters are extremely patient. i have cut my expenses to a minimum . i own my home. so, i can wait. i dont need to have the latest ipod.etc
dharma
guys dont be overly concerned w/the top. this is about making money. be concerned w/the trend. when we are in the final topping process . you want to be able to bow and say thank you very much and go on your way. the top will come. watch all the signs the market is giving and then you can make some dough. this run up is a microcosm of the final top. volatility will be off the charts. limit up days. etc. for me, looking for the top , takes my eye off the ball. we are topping and running. that is obvious.

Edited by dharma, 14 October 2010 - 11:30 AM.

[tradermama]

dharma, are you saying that you think this may be a short-term top here for silver?

Here's an interesting tidbit from Merriman. Tomorrow (Fri, Oct 15th) the Sun and the Moon are both in air signs. According to Merriman, about 1/3 of the time this coincides with a big decline in silver. Thoughts?

no, i was just alerting, if i hadnt already, that silver leading=speculation. yes, i am seeing topping action, but it has done this several times in this move. if i thought this was the final leg, i would be scaling out more aggressively. but there is another act(phase 3) to follow. so , i am where i want to be. when you have vertical moves, its extremely difficult to call the precise top. this move is designed to suck in the guys on the sidelines, and promptly bring them behind the woodshed. when they are all in, and that happens is very soon. my strategy from the get go, was to remain 85% long at a minimum. well man, you will be taken behind the woodshed. you betcha. and i will have some cash to do some buying. while most here will be deer in the headlights, or its going to this # and miss the buy. buying when its going up is easy. buying when its in the gutter, not so easy , but much more rewarding. this strategy has served me well and it has kept me in. remember surprises will be on the upside. the fed wants a lower dollar. i dont want to be in dollars, or at least minimum exposure.so, here i sit.
banksters are extremely patient. i have cut my expenses to a minimum . i own my home. so, i can wait. i dont need to have the latest ipod.etc
dharma
guys dont be overly concerned w/the top. this is about making money. be concerned w/the trend. when we are in the final topping process . you want to be able to bow and say thank you very much and go on your way. the top will come. watch all the signs the market is giving and then you can make some dough. this run up is a microcosm of the final top. volatility will be off the charts. limit up days. etc. for me, looking for the top , takes my eye off the ball. we are topping and running. that is obvious.

Dharma,
Regarding cutting back your expense, etc...we too are in the same camp...we picked our retirement home in the mountains of GA, paid for, low expenses in a small town..I make most things from scratch..including grinding my own flour..Been storing up that and other food products including dehydrated foods just in case we have a food crisis or hyperinflation...the goal is to be as independent from the $ as possible...and just to enjoy our natural surroundings...people are just getting too caught up with technology and "stuff"...when we go up to our home in GA which is ever 5-8weeks for a few days..we dont have tv..and it's so nice..reminds me of when I was a kid..and how important it is to get outside more. I do have Internet but just use that for trading if I want to.

Do your cycles have an estimate time length?...ie; 2 months that can expand? I take it we are in your new cycle period, correct?

Thanks again
TM

[dharma]

miners not participating w/the metal. up to 12% cash dharma

[dharma]

remember pullbacks are part of the process. its easy to forget w/gold being up every day. its too early to pronounce this thing over,@least for me. miners pulling back w/the metal. no particular strength in the mining sector. is qe2 in the price of the metal? what will the fed do? these are questions that come to mind. obviously qe2 is debasement, pure and simple and its not lost on the dollar flirting w/the lows. there are so many problems out there, its a litany of things that could go wrong. but, golds price is 1366 not 1k. so the current price reflects how much baked into the cake? lots of questions little in the way of answers. the only thing that strikes me right here is we have these kinds of pullbacks before , on this leg, and they have all lead to higher prices. i have to give this thing some room. i have raised cash , so i can be a buyer should this start to get oversold and diverge on my hourlies. this is not core positions but trading . 1/2 positions and 1/2 dollar amounts. july was the time to buy w/abandon. not here and not now. my account has hit new highs almost every day, so i am doing something right dharma