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Daily Stock Barometer Newsletter


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#1 TTHQ Staff

TTHQ Staff

    www.TTHQ.com

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Posted 01 November 2010 - 03:58 PM

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On the economic front, here’s the weekahead view:
 
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To help you navigate the intraday action,we have a LIVE chatroom that I am in every day.  We run it on PalTalk.  Thiswill allow you to hear me, and chat with others.  Upgrading willalso give you access to my trading screen during the day so we can goover recommendations in more detail.  Here’s the link to sign up:
[font=" ’Arial’,’sans-serif’; font-size: 10pt;"][color= blue; text-decoration: none;]http://www.ftjcfx.com/e5103tkocig1635756613259B6B2[/color][/font]

On to the charts:
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StockBarometer Analysis
 
We remain in SellMode, looking for the markets to move lower from now into11/21.  
 
The StockBarometer is my proprietary market timing system.   Thedirection, slope and level of the Stock Barometer determine our outlook. For example, if the barometer line is moving down, we are inSell Mode.  A Buy or Sell Signal is triggeredwhen the indicator clearly changes direction.  Trendand support can override the barometer signals.
MoneyManagement &Stops
 
To tradethis system, thereare a few things you need to know and address to control your risk:
  • This system targets intermediate term moves,of which even in the best years, there are usually only up to 7profitable intermediate term moves.  The rest of theyear will be consolidating moves where this system will experiencesmall losses and gains that offset each other. 
  • This system will usually result in losingtrades more than 50% of the time, even in our best years.  Thekey is being positioned properly for longer term moves when they come.
  • Therefore it is vitally important that youapply some form of money management to protect your capital.
  • Trading a leveraged index fund will result inmore risk, since you cannot set stops and you cannot get out intraday. 
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    Accordingly;
    • Make sure you set your stops so that you canlose no more than 2% per trade (based on the QQQQ if you're tradingleveraged funds and options with our trading service).
      [/list]
      PotentialCycle ReversalDates
       
      2010 PotentialReversal Dates:  1/19, 1/28, 3/2, 3/23, 4/7, 5/30, 6/10, 6/28, 7/10, 8/13,9/7, 10/2, 10/27, 11/21, 12/19.  We publishdates up to 2 months in advance.
       
      We are nowlooking for a larger move lower into 11/21 (and potentially into12/19).
       
      My Additionaltiming work is based on numerous cycles and has resulted in the abovepotential reversal dates.  These are not to beconfused with the barometer signals or cycle times.  However,due to their past accuracy I post the dates here. 
       
      2009 PublishedReversal Dates:  1/20, 2/11, 3/7, 3/15, 4/8, 4/16,4/27, 5/7, 6/8, 7/2, 7/17, 9/14, 10/10, 10/24, 11/12, 11/30, 12/9,12/21, 12/29.  2008 Potential Reversal Dates: 12/31, 1/11, 2/1, 2/13, 3/6, 4/5, 4/22, 5/23, 6/6, 6/27, 7/13,9/2, 10/3, 10/22, 11/10, 12/11.  2007 PotentialReversal Dates:  1/10, 1/14, 1/27, 1/31, 2/3, 2/17,3/10, 3/24, 4/21, 5/6, 6/15, 8/29, 10/19, 11/29, 12/13, 12/23, 12/31,1/11/08.  2006 potential reversal dates: 1/16, 1/30,2/25, 3/19, 4/8, 5/8, 5/19, 6/6(20), 7/24, 8/20, 8/29, 9/15, 10/11,11/28.  2005 Potential reversal dates: 12/27, 1/25,2/16, 3/4, 3/14, 3/29, 4/5, 4/19, 5/2, 6/3, 6/10, 7/13, 7/28, 8/12,8/30-31, 9/22, 10/4, 11/15, 11/20, 12/16.
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      SpreadIndicators
       
      Use thefollowing spread/momentum indicators to assist in your trading of theQQQQ, GLD, USD, USO and TLT.  They are tuned todeliver signals in line with the Stock Barometer and we use themonly in determining our overall outlook for the market and forpinpointing market reversals.  The level, direction,and position to the zero line are keys in these indicators. For example, direction determines mode and a buy signal 'abovezero' is more bullish than a buy signal 'below zero'. 
       
      QQQQSpread Indicator(NASDAQ:QQQQ)
        
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      The QQQQ SpreadIndicator will yield its own buy and sell signals that may be differentfrom the Stock Barometer.  It's meant to give us anidea of the next turn in the market.


       

      GoldSpread Indicator(AMEX:GLD)


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      Want to tradeGold?  Use our signals with the Gold ETF AMEX:GLD. Gold gives us a general gage to the overall health of the USEconomy and the markets.
       
      USDollar IndexSpread Indicator (INDEX:DXY)


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      Want to tradethe US Dollar?  Use our signals with the PowerShares AMEX:UUP: US Dollar Index Bullish Fund and AMEX:UDN: US DollarIndex Bearish Fund.
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      BondsSpreadIndicator (AMEX:TLT) 
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      Want to tradeBonds?  Use our signals with Lehman?s 20 year ETFAMEX:TLT.  The direction of bonds has an impact onthe stock market.  Normally, as bonds go down,stocks will go up and as bonds go up, stocks will go down.
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      OILSpread Indicator(AMEX:USO)[/color] 
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      Want to tradeOIL?  Use our signals with AMEX:USO, the OIL ETF. We look at the price of oil as its level and direction has animpact on the stock market.

       

      SupportingSecondaryIndicator
       
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      We dailymonitor hundreds of popular and proprietary technical indicators thatbreak down market internals, sentiment and money flow to give us uniqueinsight into the market.  We feature at least onehere each day in support of our current outlook.  As an annualsubscriber to any of our services, you will get access to all ourcharts and research.
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      Summaryof Daily Outlook
       

      We remain inSellMode, now looking for a larger move lower into 11/21. 
       
      AsanFYI, our chat room is open all week - no password - so feel free toforward this to anyone who may be interested in the market/investinghere. 
       
      For myclientswho trade intra day - here are the indices pivots for today's trade.
       


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      I publish charts of the ES and Qs withpivots in the chatroom every morning. Join me in the chat room if you want to seethem, and learn how to use them.

      Here's a deeper look at the S&P Futures- these levelsare very important if you're going to day trade the market. 
       
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      These levelscanbe important for both day traders and investors.  How?  Well,if you are going to take a stock position, it's always best to get themost efficient entry.  Understanding that there are key pivotsduring the day and key levels that futures traders look for, will helpyou figure a better entry price (instead of just buying at theopen).  Combine these levels with the timing of the economicreports on the list at the top of the page, and you can really catchsome nice swings in the market.  More efficient trade entryincreases your relative profit per trade.

      If you haveanyquestions or comments, email me at Jay@stockbarometer.com.
       
      Regards,
       
      JayDeVincentis -President - Investment Research Group, Inc.
      Founder- www.stockbarometer.com