59 replies to this topic

[dharma]

this move smells of a shakeout. this am slv/gld/xau/hui/gdx/gdxj all have hourly divergences from oversold condition. i am wearing my trading hat and i stepped in to buy. this could be the whole correction, or just A here is what i watch 1358 marks the start of this price cycle it is strong support 1341 is the end of the last price cycle 1325 marks the death zone(end of a decline) should it get that far these are the significant #s for me. in bull markets wealth is built and counted in how much of the asset you have. even poor buys are well above water. as the tide rises. so, i want to have more of the bull . this correction, i do not believe is the start of a down leg. but, the gold market was chugging higher and creating divergences and this was also displayed in some miners. that condition is being worked off. i am cautious in here , thus trading. yesterday lexam(mcewen owned company) declined a bout 46% couldnot find any news and showed up on my radar. watching it. mcewen seems to know what he is doing. management is quite important on miners and oil exploration companies dharma

[inamosa]

Dharma, "this move smells of a shakeout" A one day drop of almost $50 on gold...it does smell like a shakeout to me, also, especially as I don't have a lot of confidence in the Dollar Index over the next few months. Smells like a lot of nervous n00bs selling. Bull markets take the steps up and the elevator down, as they say. Bullish sentiment on gold is also far from extreme and may be downright low depending on what you're looking at. But, I will just watch carefully the $1360 level to see whether I need to reduce my core somewhat in anticipation of a move to ~$1285-1305 if it were to be broken.

Edited by alysomji, 05 January 2011 - 11:19 AM.

[dharma]

Dharma,

"this move smells of a shakeout"

A one day drop of almost $50 on gold...it does smell like a shakeout to me, also, especially as I don't have a lot of confidence in the Dollar Index over the next few months. Smells like a lot of nervous n00bs selling.

Bull markets take the steps up and the elevator down, as they say.

Bullish sentiment on gold is also far from extreme and may be downright low depending on what you're looking at.

But, I will just watch carefully the $1360 level to see whether I need to reduce my core somewhat in anticipation of a move to ~$1285-1305 if it were to be broken.

question:
if you dont have confidence in the dollar(which i dont think deserves anyones confidence)
why sell core for dollars?
wealth will be measured in terms of gold ounces/miners not in terms of paper fiat
just my 2c
marty's latest
http://www.martinarm...012-22-2010.pdf
dharma

[johngeorge]

this move smells of a shakeout. this am slv/gld/xau/hui/gdx/gdxj all have hourly divergences from oversold condition. i am wearing my trading hat and i stepped in to buy. this could be the whole correction, or just A
here is what i watch
1358 marks the start of this price cycle it is strong support
1341 is the end of the last price cycle
1325 marks the death zone(end of a decline) should it get that far
these are the significant #s for me. in bull markets wealth is built and counted in how much of the asset you have. even poor buys are well above water. as the tide rises. so, i want to have more of the bull . this correction, i do not believe is the start of a down leg. but, the gold market was chugging higher and creating divergences and this was also displayed in some miners. that condition is being worked off. i am cautious in here , thus trading.
yesterday lexam(mcewen owned company) declined a bout 46% couldnot find any news and showed up on my radar. watching it. mcewen seems to know what he is doing. management is quite important on miners and oil exploration companies
dharma

dharma

Thanks for the heads up on lexam and Rob McEwen. I bought a small position in LEXVF this am.

Best to you.

[inamosa]

Dharma,

"this move smells of a shakeout"

A one day drop of almost $50 on gold...it does smell like a shakeout to me, also, especially as I don't have a lot of confidence in the Dollar Index over the next few months. Smells like a lot of nervous n00bs selling.

Bull markets take the steps up and the elevator down, as they say.

Bullish sentiment on gold is also far from extreme and may be downright low depending on what you're looking at.

But, I will just watch carefully the $1360 level to see whether I need to reduce my core somewhat in anticipation of a move to ~$1285-1305 if it were to be broken.

question:
if you dont have confidence in the dollar(which i dont think deserves anyones confidence)
why sell core for dollars?

Just to be clear, I would only be selling part of my core position if I believe I will be able to buy it back at a "significantly" lower price in the not too distant future.

Perhaps I should re-phrase my statement to say that I will be reducing to a core position rather than selling part of my core position. I mean the same thing either way, though...bottom line is if $1360 breaks, I would cut some of my longs but certainly not all or even close to all of my longs.

Edited by alysomji, 05 January 2011 - 12:11 PM.

[stubaby]

For me 1,380 is an important number - would really like to see that "re-captured" today (My "Ideal Scenario") or by the end of the week after a move lower to 1,354-1,360 (My "White Knucles Scenario"). Waiting and watching relative performance of my portfolio. stubaby

[dougie]

gold is sporting 5 waves down on the hourlies argues for this being more than a 2-3 day affair i am afraid also, dollar looks quite good here technically as do the long bond cycles support highs being in or one last run higher? time for caution imo

[dougie]

on the other had, we are at the 38.2% retrace basis GDX, and HUi seems to have put in a nice abcde down here off Dec highs

[dharma]

breaking the 1358 would be the sign that we are going into a larger correction and a break of 1341 would confirm that. as traderama says on a different thread , the partial eclipse on the 4th could have been a game changer. eclipses can change the trend, or just cause a couple of days of reversal. one thing is certain , i dont want to be sitting w/my boat full into a full correction. where 1245 would be the target. i want to be buying into that # not sitting w/a headache. so reducing it to simplicity 1358 is my line in the sand. leverage works both ways. as stubaby points out aem is down 20% and @the .5 retracement, a large correction there. as bright as the fundamentals look for the future price of gold, i have to play the market. i like to have cash into lows to take advantage of what the market gives.

hoenig joined zoellick yesterday in supporting a gold standard. lets face it a gold standard is not a panacea , but it is much better than a fiat debased standard http://kingworldnews...ig_Correct.html
dharma

Edited by dharma, 06 January 2011 - 11:25 AM.

[stubaby]

breaking the 1358 would be the sign that we are going into a larger correction and a break of 1341 would confirm that. as traderama says on a different thread , the partial eclipse on the 4th could have been a game changer. eclipses can change the trend, or just cause a couple of days of reversal. one thing is certain , i dont want to be sitting w/my boat full into a full correction. where 1245 would be the target. i want to be buying into that # not sitting w/a headache. so reducing it to simplicity 1358 is my line in the sand. leverage works both ways. as stubaby points out aem is down 20% and @the .5 retracement, a large correction there. as bright as the fundamentals look for the future price of gold, i have to play the market. i like to have cash into lows to take advantage of what the market gives.

hoenig joined zoellick yesterday in supporting a gold standard. lets face it a gold standard is not a panacea , but it is much better than a fiat debased standard http://kingworldnews...ig_Correct.html
dharma

dharma:

Thanks for your "line in the sand"! Here's a look at the Weekly HUI chart - looks like your "basic" backtest of long-term breakout line to me - KISS

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&i=p92568532705&a=204649424&r=9505.png

stubaby