59 replies to this topic

[comino]

comino-welcome and thanks. sprott is saying that he bought the silver months ago, and all of it still has arrived

there is a difference between forecasting and taking action. i have never read, seen, or heard of anyone making a fortune playing a bull counter trend. gold is down 70ish dollars from the highs, i wonder if anyone is accumulating or if all are watching. i am picking off issues when they get beat up. sure they can be underwater for a period. , but the tide will lift these boats also. in bull markets 75% of the stocks rise. this leg of the decline looks finished to me , it may be the whole decline or just the 1st leg, i dont know. but weakness is a buying opportunity . its the drill in a bull market
john embry came out and recommended wesdome, i have some too. thanks john
my guess is very very few understand the nature of bull/bear markets.
trading is very ingrained
dharma

agreed and thank you.

i believe there is a distinction between coin availability and secular trends in the underlying metal. they produce x amount of coins based on demand, when this demand is much higher they run short. is that indicative of a shortage of the metal which has set the stage for a bull run, or is there high demand for said coins because of a percieved shortage or bull run in a metal?

ie: did Cisco's stock price rise because people were appreciating the rising value of the company, or was the price rising because people were buying under the guise that rising value would be recognized above their price point?

this is what makes PM's so interesting, we have no similar mechanism in regular equities to base these kinds of stories. imagine someone citing shortages of HP printers and labtops as reason for buying HP stock? where suddenly Future Shop sales people are fit to comment on Celestica because of their account of chip sales?

for some reason in PM's we heed the calls of coin dealers who are as attached to the markets as a Alberta Tim Horton's sandwhich maker is to oil sands production.

PM's rise is predicated on imho the debasing of fiat, not on a shortage of the metal. at least on a longer term basis i believe this to be true.

[dharma]

comino- that is the point. they bid the price of jdsu and cmgi into the stratosphere in 2k . and yes they can issue more stock and they did. they cant make more gol/silver. in bull markets whatever it is more and more people want it. it could be tulip bulbs 1375 is proving to be stiff resistance. the alternative of course is put your $$$ in dollars which have lost and continue to lose pp. since the inception of the fed , the dollar continues to lose pp. its one of those times, where there is nothing for me to do, but wait. if something that i like gets beaten up, then i buy, otherwise i sit. sitting in the metals has yielded gains in pp and if i value it against dollars , then i have more dollars. sovereigns never pay. its one of the reasons gold/silver are in a bull market. i do expect the lagging miners to catch up.i have no idea what the price of the metals need to be for that to occur dharma agree w/you of jag , jg

[stubaby]

comino- that is the point. they bid the price of jdsu and cmgi into the stratosphere in 2k . and yes they can issue more stock and they did. they cant make more gol/silver. in bull markets whatever it is more and more people want it. it could be tulip bulbs
1375 is proving to be stiff resistance. the alternative of course is put your $$$ in dollars which have lost and continue to lose pp. since the inception of the fed , the dollar continues to lose pp.
its one of those times, where there is nothing for me to do, but wait. if something that i like gets beaten up, then i buy, otherwise i sit. sitting in the metals has yielded gains in pp and if i value it against dollars , then i have more dollars. sovereigns never pay. its one of the reasons gold/silver are in a bull market.
i do expect the lagging miners to catch up.i have no idea what the price of the metals need to be for that to occur
dharma
agree w/you of jag , jg

dharma:

Interesting "rumors" about potential upcoming Yuan revaluation vs USD (normal - as we've heard these before), but does make some sense for China now as would help control building inflation there, without more internal capital restrictions. Could be the catalyst for the next move in gold and miners. Ben & Co do need to do something "new" here as QE's ad infinitum are now "built into the markets" IMHO, and as the USD strength here is unwelcome by them. Interesting times indeed - watching and waiting.

Cheers,

stubaby

[dharma]

comino- that is the point. they bid the price of jdsu and cmgi into the stratosphere in 2k . and yes they can issue more stock and they did. they cant make more gol/silver. in bull markets whatever it is more and more people want it. it could be tulip bulbs
1375 is proving to be stiff resistance. the alternative of course is put your $$$ in dollars which have lost and continue to lose pp. since the inception of the fed , the dollar continues to lose pp.
its one of those times, where there is nothing for me to do, but wait. if something that i like gets beaten up, then i buy, otherwise i sit. sitting in the metals has yielded gains in pp and if i value it against dollars , then i have more dollars. sovereigns never pay. its one of the reasons gold/silver are in a bull market.
i do expect the lagging miners to catch up.i have no idea what the price of the metals need to be for that to occur
dharma
agree w/you of jag , jg

dharma:

Interesting "rumors" about potential upcoming Yuan revaluation vs USD (normal - as we've heard these before), but does make some sense for China now as would help control building inflation there, without more internal capital restrictions. Could be the catalyst for the next move in gold and miners. Ben & Co do need to do something "new" here as QE's ad infinitum are now "built into the markets" IMHO, and as the USD strength here is unwelcome by them. Interesting times indeed - watching and waiting.

Cheers,

stubaby

dollar strength is a mirage. since the inception of the fed, almost a hundred years , the dollar has persistently and consistently lost pp. and that is the issue. qe only expedites the process. india raised rates today to combat the commodity price inflation. the key issue is the debt. sovereigns never pay. they renege or they devalue, the latter is what we are seeing in the western world. in spite of what they say, it will continue. one way or another the debt cannot and will not be paid. so where do i have my money. yes, i can pick up spare change here and there. i see alot of bearishness out there. bear cots, bear breaks of unsustainable rising trends. who knows , i may be wrong. but i wont be w/the harmonic pointing upwards. after that , then it is possible to get a correction. its about building wealth. and putting or having my money in fiat aint the road to riches in this time . other times it works. different times require different strategies. gold isnt always a good investment. few very few understand what is going on. most are afraid. afraid of a correction . its why very very few ride the bull. and that is no bull
dharma

Edited by dharma, 11 January 2011 - 12:28 PM.

[dharma]

ask your self this question when the cbs were selling their gold @the lows, who was buying? it wasnt other cbs! who was it. ahhh yes, it was and is my contention that it was the banksters. it took until over 1k before any news of cb buying caught the eye of investors. cbs are not astute investors. if they were , they wouldnt have drank the kool aid of debt. debt is the vehicle to make their constituents happy and get the slimy smooth talkers reelected. in the history of money, no fiat has survived for that very reason, the temptation by the politicians, kings, dictators is to debase. well here we are, our proud banksters have announced that qe2 will save us from the abyss. and then the astute look @one fiat in relation to another fiat. well both/all in the west are debasing. against stuff fiat is no longer faring so well. well gold is in correction mode here. i should sell short, i should have sold the fakeout @1410 . all of this misses the point . one way markets solely exist @the top of bull markets. corrections are an opportunity to build wealth. yes, i can pick up more dollars by playing the correction. but, pp of dollars is depreciating. gold =money dollars=debt, you hold them are a creditor. anyway, if this is nt clear yet. then it will become clear later. this is nt the 30s w/a currency backed by gold. this is a currency backed by fake promises and lies. intestinal fortitude my {bleeeep}, its about knowledge dharma i did mention that i think the correction ends next week. sure looks to me like we are building a base here

[stubaby]

ask your self this question when the cbs were selling their gold @the lows, who was buying? it wasnt other cbs! who was it. ahhh yes, it was and is my contention that it was the banksters. it took until over 1k before any news of cb buying caught the eye of investors. cbs are not astute investors. if they were , they wouldnt have drank the kool aid of debt. debt is the vehicle to make their constituents happy and get the slimy smooth talkers reelected. in the history of money, no fiat has survived for that very reason, the temptation by the politicians, kings, dictators is to debase. well here we are, our proud banksters have announced that qe2 will save us from the abyss. and then the astute look @one fiat in relation to another fiat. well both/all in the west are debasing. against stuff fiat is no longer faring so well.
well gold is in correction mode here. i should sell short, i should have sold the fakeout @1410 . all of this misses the point . one way markets solely exist @the top of bull markets. corrections are an opportunity to build wealth. yes, i can pick up more dollars by playing the correction. but, pp of dollars is depreciating. gold =money dollars=debt, you hold them are a creditor. anyway, if this is nt clear yet. then it will become clear later. this is nt the 30s w/a currency backed by gold. this is a currency backed by fake promises and lies. intestinal fortitude my {bleeeep}, its about knowledge
dharma
i did mention that i think the correction ends next week. sure looks to me like we are building a base here

dharma:

Picture worth a 1000 words:

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&i=p57812820606&a=205148199&r=382.png

Power-trending up move from late July lows to October momentum "top" at $1,387 now being totally worked off with a "wide-ranging" lateral move. What's not to like! And "time" is now about expired, too! Set-up for explosive up-move here is persuasive to say the least. (the long "spring-board has only added to upside leverage) IMHO

stubaby

[tradermama]

ask your self this question when the cbs were selling their gold @the lows, who was buying? it wasnt other cbs! who was it. ahhh yes, it was and is my contention that it was the banksters. it took until over 1k before any news of cb buying caught the eye of investors. cbs are not astute investors. if they were , they wouldnt have drank the kool aid of debt. debt is the vehicle to make their constituents happy and get the slimy smooth talkers reelected. in the history of money, no fiat has survived for that very reason, the temptation by the politicians, kings, dictators is to debase. well here we are, our proud banksters have announced that qe2 will save us from the abyss. and then the astute look @one fiat in relation to another fiat. well both/all in the west are debasing. against stuff fiat is no longer faring so well.
well gold is in correction mode here. i should sell short, i should have sold the fakeout @1410 . all of this misses the point . one way markets solely exist @the top of bull markets. corrections are an opportunity to build wealth. yes, i can pick up more dollars by playing the correction. but, pp of dollars is depreciating. gold =money dollars=debt, you hold them are a creditor. anyway, if this is nt clear yet. then it will become clear later. this is nt the 30s w/a currency backed by gold. this is a currency backed by fake promises and lies. intestinal fortitude my {bleeeep}, its about knowledge
dharma
i did mention that i think the correction ends next week. sure looks to me like we are building a base here

Hi Dharma

Full Moon Jan 19..I recall you said you had a turn date around the 17th...It does look like a consolidation...on gold between1370-1387..

.. watching miners....HL has been so strong during the drop of silver...and even today while metals/miners somewhat weak...HL is building a base too around 10.20-10.40.....one thing worth noting is a lot of bearishness developing on the sentiment...even Dennis Gartman warning ...on gold..no new positions...

Kitco News) -- Newsletter writer Dennis Gartman says he remains bullish on gold in non-U.S. dollar terms and “ambivalent” or “agnostic” in dollar terms. Still, he says in Wednesday’s The Gartman Letter,”for the first time in a very long while we shall inject a note of caution to owning gold in any form. We will not recommend new positions, and we shall recommend ‘shoring up’ stops to protect what we have gained over the past many months. Call it a dyspeptic stomach perhaps, or call it old age’s propensity to be cautious, but for the first time in quite some long while we shall be cautious rather than expansive when it comes to the precious metals.”

Also, Jan 25th starts the Mecury into Saggi ending Feb 5...where typically metals advance for an average of 3-9 day rally..So maybe the full moon starts the ball rolling and we break highs during Mercury going into Saggi..we shall soon find out

TM

[dharma]

stubaby - your count captures that base i see developing, as usual your counts are superb. i read ad nauseum how gold is going to correct to 1260, maybe . sure its a possibility, but its not what i see. i see that base as a spring to new highs. we went into the base on the upside and we will come out on the upside. and as traderama points out merc in sag is very bullish the metals. and the harmonics i watch are pointing up till mid feb. the dollar has been in a bear market since 02. is that trend reasserting itself here? has the attention of sovereign troubles shifted from europe to the usa? its all fiat and its valued one against the other. while the ags soared yesterday, oil went up , and gold is about 8 ounces to one dow. (@the top in 80, gold and the dow traded even). the pp of the dollar continues to erode as it has since the inception of the fed. so, when you have dollars, you are constantly, continually losing pp. gold=money dollar =debt, you are a creditor. if you get that concept, then you get what is really happening. if not, @some point the bread line of the 21st century awaits. http://www.graceland...011jan11usd.png
so, here we are buying time. this is all about maintaining pp. the ranks of the middle class are thinning. drinking the kool aide of debt , increasing debt is not the road to riches
dharma

[JGUITARSLIM]

Many look at the chart of Gold and see a triple top?, broadening top formation, gold is broken, etc. I'm not an elliot wave guy, but that count sure would explain what I am seeing. This is a very bullish consolidation...a running correction of sorts.

Edited by JGUITARSLIM, 13 January 2011 - 12:34 PM.

[johngeorge]

Gold and silver meandering around, my PM stocks meandering around, and the dollar taking a dump today (Sell on the daily chart and within a hair of a sell on the weekly). Yes, I am seeing what looks like a platform to blast off from. Just hanging around and waiting.