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SPX Starting Wave iii of (iii) of 3 of (3)

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#1 Steven Vincent

Steven Vincent


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Posted 05 January 2011 - 08:22 PM

I just sent out the following message to members:

A message from Steven Vincent to all members of BullBear Traders on BullBear Trading :: Keeping You on the Right Side of the Markets!


01/05/11 BullBear Update:

Last night I told you that I was not buying (or selling) the "imminent correction" hypothesis and that we should not sell out our long positions because we are in Wave 3 and that it will be difficult to get back into position. Indeed, it seemed that world markets had begun a round of heavy selling. But here we are with US indices pushing towards new highs.

The Euro has traded to support and may be a good speculative buy here. I would be very careful with it however since we may be seeing a long dollar, long equities trade emerging. Maybe.

DollarYen has broken out with a massive rally. The reemergence of the Yen carry trade is the last component of the full-on bull market in risk assets. Once that is firmly in place (and it appears that is close at hand), then the Wave 3 juggernaut will advance with little pause.

Gold may be at the tipping point. The key psychological point here is that most market participants have been viewing gold in terms of an inflation hedge or anti-dollar. The reality is probably that since the 2009 low it has been trading primarily as a fear/safety play. Since we are getting ever closer to "safety off, risk on", gold, as a safe haven asset, will suffer along with bonds.

Well those are my current views. As you know I always remain open minded and ready to change when the market tells me to. But this is what the market seems to be telling me right now. As most traders and "analysts" see what they want to see in the markets, like dreamers seeing shapes of animals in the clouds, I try to see things as they really are. Most are seeing "big correction" or even "bear market" because that's what they WANT to see. That's why I have been heavily discounting all the talk of a sentiment top. When you scratch the surface most market participants, even those who say they are bullish, are really bearish.

Well, more to follow soon....


SPX appears to be starting iii of (iii) of 3 of (3). This powerful wave should unfold over a period of weeks with little interruption.

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Here's my 12/27/10 BullBear Update to members of the BullBear Trading room at TheBullBear.com.

At this time there is no reason at all to exit any long positions held from lower levels. The possibility of a short term pullback to support exists but if it occurs it should be very brief and shallow. It would be a buying opportunity, not the beginning of a bigger selloff.

Here's my preferred count of SPX at this time:
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READ THE FULL POST HERE: http://www.thebullbe...ght-side<br />

Need some help staying on the right side of the markets? Join the BullBear Trading room at TheBullBear.com. You'll get this kind of timely, incisive, unbiased analysis daily. It's free to join, no credit card is required and if you like my work you just make a donation at the end of each month.
Steven Vincent

Need help staying on the right side of the markets? Join me at BullBear Traders at TheBullBear.com.